Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

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Droop12
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#341 Postby Droop12 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:52 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The storm looks to be a 130 to 135 knot system. But reports dont' yet prove it yet...This must be a very compact inner core.

Maybe because the eyewall hasnt yet made it to the island. Just because it's under the CDO doesnt mean its in the strongest winds. Should be interesting the next few hours.
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#342 Postby Droop12 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:57 am

Winds are now over 75 mph. Gust to 87kts.
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#343 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:02 am

no update for a few minutes, wonder if its down due to satellite or other form of comm
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#344 Postby Zardoz » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:06 am

Image

Pretty good gust...
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#345 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:07 am

well looks like its down, maybe that French guy can fix it
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#346 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:11 am

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 31 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 19.3N 167.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 21.1N 163.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
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#347 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:13 am

Pressure down to 960
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#348 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:11 am

85h data shows that it is in fact now in the western eyewall. I don't know if this thing is still working. It poped a weird one out along time ago.
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#349 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:27 am

934.7hPa as of 27 minutes ago.

1890000 20060831 09:00 20.41 137.00 38.10 79.52 82.94 934.70
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#350 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:34 am

yeah, maybe it is up again

1890000 20060831 09:06 19.44 143.00 43.54 79.70 82.94 934.00
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#351 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:35 am

You could take 20hpa from where it is to the center. This is on now the southwestern quad. Far from the core of the pressure center.

I say 910-914hpa at the core...I think the wind thing is no longer working. It amazes me that this is working at all.
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#352 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:37 am

I agree.. pressure could be going up now.. but the DVORAK looks pretty close

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2006 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 19:27:39 N Lon : 166:57:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 928.4mb/115.0kt
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#353 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:42 am

The pressure is up 0.3hPa in the last ob. I'll work out the distance to the centre when the advisories come out in the next 15 minutes.
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#354 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:42 am

Its not near the pressure center...Which I think could be about 15 to 20hpa lower. But its in the southern eye...Right where you would expect the strongest part.

I say this storm is still around 130 knots over the northeast quad. But maybe 110-115 knots at wake right now.
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#355 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:46 am

The centre was 36km to the NE of Wake Island around the time of those obs.

Image

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 19.5N 166.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 21.4N 163.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT =
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#356 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:35 am

Well, here's a great picture for ya.

Image

Looks like a direct hit by the southern eyewall.

That image also shows that the storm does not consist of much on the NW side right now, and that the back side of the storm will probably be worse and last longer for Wake then when it was going into the storm. And no more obs since 09:12z.
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#357 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:04 am

The 6Z puts Tokyo back in play again.. almost right at Tokyo.. the KMA has also shifted westward.. we will see what the next update has.

Image
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#358 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:42 am

WindRunner wrote:Well, here's a great picture for ya.

Image

Looks like a direct hit by the southern eyewall.


Nice capture there. Unfortunately there must have been a WNW wobble overnight. :(

WindRunner wrote:That image also shows that the storm does not consist of much on the NW side right now


Maybe the island weakened it some. :wink:

Latest JTWC advisory keeps it at 135 knots, making it the strongest storm (in terms of winds) to strike a U.S. territory since Andrew in '92. It also ties Katrina in central pressure (using the JMA estimated pressure) as the third most intense cyclone ever to strike U.S. territory.
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#359 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:58 am

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 12:00 UTC 31 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 19.7N 166.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 21.5N 162.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 021200UTC 23.3N 156.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 031200UTC 25.3N 151.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
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#360 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:08 am

From Tropical Storm Risk:

Mark Saunders wrote:Super typhoon Ioke struck Wake Island at about 06:00 GMT on 31 August. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 19.2 N, 167.4 E. Ioke brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 250 km/h (155 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.
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