Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Zadok]

Maybe he will be growing...

It does not look like he will be growing any time soon.

[mettski]

The center looks like it is running parallel to the angle of the northern coast of Cuba.

agree. half inland and half off.

[westmoon]

Anyone wana take a guess on which way the NHC will move the track at 5PM?

[Bane]

Maybe he will be growing...

It does not look like he will be growing any time soon.

define soon.

[curtadams]

I know that someone is going to be siting at their computer laughing at this question, but I haft to ask anyway, is there any chance at all no matter how small that Ernesto could end up in the GOM if he doesn't make the expected turn east soon,( going back to my corner now

Yes, there's a chance and it's not *that* small. Somebody posted yesterday (I didn't check) that there's a 15% chance of Ernie going to each side of the cone (I think that's high though). Left of the cone more or less equals in the GOM. So, maybe a 10-15% chance - I think 15% is high but this has been an unusually hard-to-predict storm. However, you will get warning thanks to the distances.

[Wx_Warrior]

not looking good....maybe runner up in an ugly contest

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone wana take a guess on which way the NHC will move the track at 5PM?

Same or West...

[tgenius]

Sustained wind? I'm surprised it has any kind of recognizable *form*, much less any wind.

Gives alot of credibility to the storm holding itself together I must admit.

[HurricaneJim]

Can someone explain this for me? Is this a forecasted pointor where they are claiming it is?



#2 They are creatures of the sea. That's where they come from, that's what they eat, it's their purpose in nature. They will follow the sea if left alone (ie; no atmospheric features strong enough to interfere with them).

He has consitently jogged to stay over the water. He will break away from land and continue to feed. Feeders from the sea to the NE are already developing and it's starting to blob through the pass.





Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[curtadams]

Maybe he will be growing...

It does not look like he will be growing any time soon.

Um - it looks like it's growing NOW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[westmoon]

DESTRUCTION5,

westmoon wrote:
Anyone wana take a guess on which way the NHC will move the track at 5PM?


Same or West...

Thats my guess too, I don't see it moving any more east thats for sure

[jenmrk]

I know that someone is going to be siting at their computer laughing at this question, but I haft to ask anyway, is there any chance at all no matter how small that Ernesto could end up in the GOM if he doesn't make the expected turn east soon,( going back to my corner now

Yes, there's a chance and it's not *that* small. Somebody posted yesterday (I didn't check) that there's a 15% chance of Ernie going to each side of the cone (I think that's high though). Left of the cone more or less equals in the GOM. So, maybe a 10-15% chance - I think 15% is high but this has been an unusually hard-to-predict storm. However, you will get warning thanks to the distances.

Thank you for answering my question, for those of us that have so much to learn about how these storms track it really keeps you glued to the computer watching for any wobble in your direction, I think in my case it would need to be a decenct wobble though.

[deltadog03]

the center appears that it has moved roughly NW or WNWNN..lol....according to the sat. and recon obs.

[EmeraldCoast1]

...is there any chance at all no matter how small that Ernesto could end up in the GOM if he doesn't make the expected turn east soon...

After what we have seen over the last 48 hours in terms of forecasts based on synoptics, I don't know how anyone could say there is a 0% chance of anything happening with the future of Ernesto. I would not be suprised if it isn't until Wednesday before they (NHC/models) truly get a grasp on this thing.

BTW, you can go back to Saturday and find dozens of posts where some of the "know-it-all" amateurs on this forum made statements that there was no chance in HE-double hockey sticks that this could be a FL peninsula storm. Even the pros were tossing out the GFS runs that insisted the weakness would happen in the ridge.

My new motto with hurricanes: NEVER SAY NEVER.

[Zadok]

The structure has been falling apart all day.

[SWLA]

When Ernesto got going he was originally forecasted to move west. Basically in tandem or a little slower with the upper low to its west. The change in direction happened when a second upper low swung in from the north creating a weakness. Well now it looks like the axis of that upper low has moved past Ernesto. Ernesto appears to be moving towards the wnw in tandem with this low. What if the weakness has abated for now and Ernesto moves towards the Appalachicola to Pensacola area ahead of the approaching shortwave? Is this a possibility?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New Eurpoean hits FL and Blasts Carolinas

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[kevin]

Can someone explain this for me? Is this a forecasted pointor where they are claiming it is?



#2 They are creatures of the sea. That's where they come from, that's what they eat, it's their purpose in nature. They will follow the sea if left alone (ie; no atmospheric features strong enough to interfere with them).

He has consitently jogged to stay over the water. He will break away from land and continue to feed. Feeders from the sea to the NE are already developing and it's starting to blob through the pass.





Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

....

I have no idea what you are talking about. Hurricanes do not try and follow water. They don't try and do anything at all. They're storms.

What are the arrows on your sat picture however?

[westmoon]

EmeraldCoast1,

My new motto with hurricanes: NEVER SAY NEVER.

That has to be the smartest thing said yet!

[jenmrk]

BTW, you can go back to Saturday and find dozens of posts where some of the "know-it-all" amateurs on this forum made statements that there was no chance in HE-double hockey sticks that this could be a FL peninsula storm. Even the pros were tossing out the GFS runs that insisted the weakness would happen in the ridge.

My new motto with hurricanes: NEVER SAY NEVER.[/quote]


That is why I am afraid to let my guard down, this has been very interesting and stressful, I can't imagine what the Pro Mets are going through...hard to imagine that stress level, so for now I will keep watching and ask the occasional question.