TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[gatorcane]

ok, i expect landfall to be at aropund 60-75 MPH now, Tommarow night at 10 PM. i cant believe i have to go to school tommarow! i go to a private school in Broward County.

Evil:
There goes your hot streak.
Or was it even a hot streak as you crowed about being right about the storm hitting So Fla and now it may never get here.
Certainly not to get near you in Miami with 60-75 MPH wind!
You are better off going to school tomorrow!

Don't worry public schools in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach will follow suit and be back in class on Wednesday at this point.

It was an exciting drill we all got to go through on Ernesto but Fidel had other plans for him!!!

Next one, and there will probably BE a next one; may not be so much fun....

unfortunately the complacency here in South Florida may go up each time we go through these drills and nothing materializes.

Remember the FL Keys have been evacuated 12 times in the past 2 years even though Wilma was the only storm that ultimately provided some serious winds, although CAT 1.

[skysummit]

Just for the hell of it....

[Scorpion]

Agreed. If we get a threat in September,and I am 99% sure we will, people will be much more complacent.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the flow maps shows that there still a strong high to the north. At 850-500 millibars theres a weakness(two area's of high pressure split) one at over the central gulf...The other just north of this system. This should help it move more northward by 12 hours...Which should get it over the strait. Looking at the upper levels 200-500 millibars the high just gets stronger as you go up. I think I would give this a 25 percent chance now of going up the west coast of Florida. In we seen what charley did with the right quad of a weakness. Also Wlima. Its worth watching.

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting thing is that noone including NHC mentioned shear earlier today and this thing is dying....weird mo nature

[bree4bryce]

oh, well, I didn't want to do anything later this week except get ready for a possible cat 1.
Sorry to say I only come on during the "peak" of the season because I'm a lurker but I'm glad to see all the regulars again.

[fci]

unfortunately the complacency here in South Florida may go up each time we go through these drills and nothing materializes.

Remember the FL Keys have been evacuated 12 times in the past 2 years even though Wilma was the only storm that ultimately provided some serious winds, although CAT 1.

Good point as gas lines and grocery store lines were huge today.
Will they be huge next time?

As I grew up we started to get REAL complacent down here until Andrew shook everyone one up big time.
The last couple of years did the same after a long lull.
The "it will turn away and won't come here" attitude is easy to come by as people get scare after scare and nothing happens.
It's just human nature, the "cry wolf" syndrome.

No real answer for it as people's attention spans are quite short.

You can't yell at them when they get complacent, only remind them of what has happened in the past.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the flow maps shows that there still a strong high to the north. At 850-500 millibars theres a weakness(two area's of high pressure split) one at over the central gulf...The other just north of this system. This should help it move more northward by 12 hours...Which should get it over the strait. Looking at the upper levels 200-500 millibars the high just gets stronger as you go up. I think I would give this a 25 percent chance now of going up the west coast of Florida. In we seen what charley did with the right quad of a weakness. Also Wlima. Its worth watching.

Agreed. I see exactly what you are seeing. Now since it is weaker it could move WNW most of tonight. That shortwave trough over the plains really doesn't seem that strong, the high is very dominant in the SE US...afterall folks it is August - we would expect that...

I am leaving for good now but I expect a shift left again but wouldn't be surprised to see not much left of good ole Ernesto come day break....

[jaxfladude]

The mountains aren't as high in that area I beleive. Ernesto for some reason doesn't want to leave Cuba.

my reply is self-censored due to a political statement

[Scorpion]

Yes, it really depends on tonight. If it can emerge intact somewhat, then tomorrow it will likely have a chance to build up into a solid TS. If it takes a more westerly track, it will have more time to perhaps intensify into a Cat 1. However, with the current trends, it looks to just scrape Cuba. However, this part is alot less mountainous and part of the circulation is over water. So who knows?

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe, even though it's hard track a center without visible, not to mention a very disorganized center. It almost looks to be moving more at a 285 heading.

Don't be surprised to see it dissipate into an open wave over Cuba.

[timeflow]

How accurate is this? I take it the center is still over land, although this, which I've been referring to since yesterday, shows the "guess position" just offshore.



Oops, it jumped back onshore just after I posted that?! Hehe, guess it went for a dip.

[cpdaman]

the dry air on the west side of system is finally moistening up and the ulll is starting show some little more distance from old ern as the ull races west

maybe the ull will subtly move ernesto over the water in a few hours instead of 7
now that is -removed-

[Wx_Warrior]

Just not much left there

[cpdaman]

DO ULL's have any effect (besides sheer) on the steering of sytems

cause the one to the north west now is moving away and creating a bit of distance

[boca]

I'm glad I didn't board up for this one. I think tomorrow's forecast will by Variably cloudy with a 40% chance of showeres and breezy with east winds 15 to 20 mph. Just my humble opinion. I miss work and my kids miss school for that. Just venting.

[cpdaman]

ernie is looking about as intimidating as "Blue" from old school good nite fellas u never know

[Wx_Warrior]

old blue died to...poor guy...funny character actor...sorry mods..back to the regularily scheduled SHEAR

[tampastorm]

So the center is not the blob just offshore north of Cuba?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not dead, in fact theres still a pretty good area of convection near the center. Unlike earlier today. In it appears to be about to move out over water over the next hour or two.