TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Canelaw99]

Any mets or knowledgable others have an explanation for why the pressure seems to be going up when it's looking better on sat & our local mets are showing that it's getting a little stronger (magentas & whites popping up on IR now per Norcross)...?

[storms in NC]

I think it the pressure will drop this afternoon into late evening. As it will be over very warm water for a day. Should help some what to bring it back up to a strong TS. Now my ? is when it comes off the coast of Fl and hit the Gulf stream will it go back up to an TS or a cat1. Just asking cause the gulf stream in very warm and as you seen with Beryl

[Sanibel]

They must be missing the center.

[Droop12]

I expect Ernie to do what weak storms tend to do and thats become better organized right near landfall. Examples being, Barry, Claudette, and Cindy. Maybe Im crazy but if this thing can get a central core together in the next 12 hours he may spin up into a minimal hurricane.

[HeatherAKC]

Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:40 am Post subject:

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Any mets or knowledgable others have an explanation for why the pressure seems to be going up when it's looking better on sat & our local mets are showing that it's getting a little stronger (magentas & whites popping up on IR now per Norcross)...?

Ahhhhhhhhh, but Norcross also just said that storms USUALLY appear stronger before the data/winds/pressure say they're stronger.......

[THead]

It has that snap together rotor shape but is whipping along to fast to really pull it all in.

The system is "wedged" between synoptics and can't freely spin up.

the pressure is a 1008 mb. that is all we need to know right now.

Yeah, much higher and its going to be an area of pretty darn good weather impacting someone.

[Canelaw99]

Ahhh - must've been when my mother-in-law called me because I totally missed that LOL - ty

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Has anyone been looking at the whol egulf water vapor loop lately? that front that is supposed to come down is moving REAL slow compared to Ernesto's speed. In fact, it looks like the ULL over towards the BOC may have had somethign to do with keeping it in check. In any case, following the water vapor loop progression, it looks like Ernie should be moving more NW very soon. The Ridge is also slowly moving to the SE as is evident, but not moving fast enough. It doesn't look to me like a strong NE turn will happen for quite a long time. I wouldn't be suprosed to see 2 landfalls on Florida. The first clipping the southern tip, then going further up the west coast before reentering the state up near Sarasota; and heading northerly at that point, not northeasterly it looks like to me.

[fox13weather]

Any mets or knowledgable others have an explanation for why the pressure seems to be going up when it's looking better on sat & our local mets are showing that it's getting a little stronger (magentas & whites popping up on IR now per Norcross)...?

Simple, some of the storms are being enhanced by a small upper level low NW of the system. The storms that are being generated are not part of the circulation yet. This storm spent a LONG time over Cuba and basically it came off the coast as a marginal tropical storm, if that. It takes awhile for the "engine" to "repair" itself. If you look back in history, very few, if any, storms have come off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm only to intensify and POUND Florida.

[gatorcane]

big thunderstorms continue to blow up NE of the center. Deep reds showing up everywhere:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

No Treasure Island, Ernesto is riding the west edge of the High right on track to the Keys and tip of Florida.

[Loring]

Good thing this didn't stay just offshore Cuba yesterday. Cuba saved Florida.

x2
i was thinking the same thing.

[shawn67]

No Treasure Island, Ernesto is riding the west edge of the High right on track to the Keys and tip of Florida.

And what if it makes it around the tip???

[Colossus]

Any mets or knowledgable others have an explanation for why the pressure seems to be going up when it's looking better on sat & our local mets are showing that it's getting a little stronger (magentas & whites popping up on IR now per Norcross)...?

Simple, some of the storms are being enhanced by a small upper level low NW of the system. The storms that are being generated are not part of the circulation yet. This storm spent a LONG time over Cuba and basically it came off the coast as a marginal tropical storm, if that. It takes awhile for the "engine" to "repair" itself. If you look back in history, very few, if any, storms have come off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm only to intensify and POUND Florida.

Hey Fox13 did your web site go down yesterday? As much as I like the new format, I find more immediate info here on this site than what you all have posted (acknowledging that you DO have to work for a living)...

[Droop12]

I new it would take to long once he got over water to regain energy, he's begining to look great on Sat., great structure, but he's only got about 12 more hours over water.

[gtalum]

And what if it makes it around the tip???

It won't. But if it did somehow, it would likely come in somewhere on the west coast as a hurricane.

[Droop12]

I wouldnt say "wont" with this storm.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Although I really have a lot of faith in the NHC, personally, I am still going to watch BayNews9 locally in Tampa Bay since they are leaving a few options open at least so that viewers are less likely to be caught off guard if the track does shift more. Obviously they have to tow the NHC line a bit, but I have noticed that most of their forecasters tend to also add the other tidbits, like explaining why some of the outlier models may be seeing what they are seeing. That helps teach the interactions too for all the viewers.

Although I catch the other stations too to get their opinions, I find that many of them use a lot of absolutes and seem to casually dismiss other options entirely. That will make thier viewers be caught by suprise if they believe their Mets all the time. (i.e. Fox 13's met spoke with certainty on Thurs and Fri night that it would hit Texas or Louisiana and that we had nothing at all to worry about here in Florida! -I hope people didn't spend money or make big plans based on that! CNN is also notorious for giving no details at all and very absolute ideas; maybe due to their time restraints.)

[gatorcane]

looks like I am finally starting to see signs of the NW turn......based on sat pics.

[tgenius]

Gatorcane...be ready for some serious rain dude.. it's going to be a nasty evening.