TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[AnnularCane]

Am I the only one who thinks of Ernie as a fighter and not a wimp?

[boca]

If Ernesto has 45mph how come no one has expierenced them yet today. Like gatorcane said 25mph at the most. This happens to be the pooriest excuse for a storm I've ever seen(excluding Haiti), but not the same system as over there.

[Canelaw99]

You mean there's actually wind outside? Are you sure it's not an overactive ceiling fan gone mad????

[gatorcane]

You mean there's actually wind outside? Are you sure it's not an overactive ceiling fan gone mad????

I'm actually getting the strong winds I have seen just in the past hour but I did turn on my ceiling fan though.

[craptacular]

Recon just found a 49kt flight-level wind.

It was part of a whole band of nice winds. Assuming we're using 80%, that's still a 45 mph surface wind.

0345 2526N 08012W 01524 0048 146 039 176 176 041 01573 0000000000
0345. 2527N 08010W 01522 0054 143 042 176 170 043 01577 0000000000
0346 2528N 08009W 01526 0060 147 045 174 166 047 01587 0000000000
0346. 2530N 08008W 01520 0063 149 047 176 170 048 01584 0000000000
0347 2531N 08006W 01525 0060 150 046 174 174 047 01586 0000000000
0347. 2532N 08005W 01525 0065 150 046 176 164 047 01591 0000000000
0348 2533N 08004W 01522 0067 148 046 176 154 047 01590 0000000000
0348. 2534N 08002W 01525 0073 148 048 172 156 049 01599 0000000000
0349 2535N 08001W 01525 0072 147 047 166 158 047 01598 0000000000
0349. 2536N 07959W 01523 0072 148 044 170 158 045 01596 0000000000
0350 2537N 07958W 01524 0073 148 042 172 154 043 01598 0000000000
0350. 2538N 07957W 01525 0076 147 042 168 166 043 01602 0000000000
0351 2539N 07955W 01524 0076 151 041 170 168 042 01602 0000000000
0351. 2541N 07954W 01520 0077 151 042 168 158 042 01598 0000000000
0352 2542N 07952W 01527 0079 151 040 168 156 041 01607 0000000000

[Canelaw99]

see gator LOL

[boca]

Here in West Boca I had a gust to 9mph with a sustained wind of 3mph.

[CronkPSU]

the center still stalled just a tad north of marathon?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[CycloneCarl]

How the heck do tropical storm winds expand 105 miles from the center when nobody is getting them? Can somebody explain this enigma?

The centre of all tropical cyclones is calm or nearly so. Winds are due to the pressure gradient between the low in the centre and surrounding higher pressures. In a hurricane these usually concentrate in a ring or 'donut' around the centre. In weaker systems the low in the centre is not well defined and strongest winds are usually offset a considerable distance away in the direction of highest pressure.

Yes, but the point is that there are no tropical storm force winds, so how can it expand 105 miles from the center?

Recon just found 49 kt flight level, so I think that settles the issue and this is still a tropical storm.

In any case recon can only sample discrete points along a line so there is no certainty that they managed to sample the strongest winds.

The NHC quite correctly works on the assumption that there may be stronger winds off the flight line, especially where deeper convection is firing up. I would rather they did 'best guess' forecasting based on combining the best information they have available from all sources rather than blindly going only by discrete measurements from a moving point source that can only be in one place at any time.

[gatorcane]

Here in West Boca I had a gust to 9mph with a sustained wind of 3mph.

Seriously I am seeing gusts up to 35mph now for some reason - pretty squally out also... I'm in East Delray near the coast....

I think Ernie heard me rat him out or something...

[boca]

I know all storms are different but was Ernesto purely tropical because if he was wouldn't you be getting 49 mph at the surface too or maybe a little less.

[carolina blue]

Conditions at FWYF1 as of
(12:00 am EDT)
0400 GMT on 08/30/2006:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 38 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 41 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F

[rainydaze]

Here in North Palm Beach we are getting some heavy rain right now, but believe me when I tell ya...there is not a lick of wind. The trees are absolutely still.

[tgenius]

You know.. looking at both Miami/Key West Radar, I'm not so sure I see that North track they are predicting, I think Ernesto may just emerge off SW FL Coast (looks like he may be trying to straddle the SW Coastline) of course, just my untrained eye

[boca]

Ernesto is moving north of due west according to the radar. Can you say hello Cape Sable then the Gulf of Mexico. I believe I was scolded for saying that word GOM about 4 hours ago.

[Brent]

Here in West Boca I had a gust to 9mph with a sustained wind of 3mph.

Don't sleep tonight. A tree might fall on your house.

[stormtruth]

Pressure drop to 1003 from Crazy Erny

[Canelaw99]

OK, someone, 'splain this to me - all day while Ernie was over nice toasty waters, his pressure was rising,even though he was looking good. Now, he's looking, um, crappy to say the least, he's essentially over land, yet his pressure is decreasing per the latest VDM. What the heck is going on here???? Did I enter a twisted universe or something?

[carolina blue]

He is still in favorable conditions

I would not consider him as being on land

[Wx_Warrior]

lolol