TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

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Wthrman13
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#341 Postby Wthrman13 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:23 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Operationally, this was a 75mph hurricane at 1002mb and a 35mph depression at 1000mb.


While it is a little odd, keep in mind that the minimum central pressure is not the best indicator of intensity. It's the pressure gradient that really matters, because ultimately this is what drives the horizontal wind. It's quite possible and even likely that the pressure gradient during the time when Ernesto was a hurricane was much tighter than it is now. The circulation was much smaller then. This can be confusing because central pressure is indeed sometimes used as a proxy to gauge the intensity of TC's, because it is so much easier to measure a point pressure value than it is to measure the pressure gradient, which requires many pressure readings at various locations around the storm center. Couple this with the fact that the pressure gradient only directly causes wind *acceleration*, while actual maximum wind speed is a function of many parameters, including the diameter of the eye, as well as still not well understood effects such as mesovortex formation, etc, and you have some idea how difficult it is to actually define and measure TC intensity.
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Derek Ortt

#342 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:28 pm

it almost certainly was nowhere close to hurricane intensity when the pressure rose to 1002mb. Best track will likely lower than value significantly
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#343 Postby Wthrman13 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it almost certainly was nowhere close to hurricane intensity when the pressure rose to 1002mb. Bets trakc will likely lower than value significantly


No, you are probably right, but I was merely offering a plausible argument as to how it could be possible, as I hope was clear.
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#344 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:34 pm

667
WTNT65 KNHC 310322
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1125 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...RADAR AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41009 HAS REPORTED AN 8-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 36 MPH...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AT MELBOURNE
FLORIDA HAS SHOWN WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AT 1000-2500 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ERNESTO HAS
REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
MPH EAST OF THE CENTER.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Evil Jeremy
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#345 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:34 pm

its back to a TS! someone change he topic title back!
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

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#346 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:37 pm

Sorry I didn't come back today and give updates from Cape Canaveral, but it was just too great to be outside! Ernesto was exactly what we needed here, and will go down in my memory as the PERFECT storm -- good dousing of rain, just enough breeze to cool us off, no lightning, no tornadoes. Every kid in my area, and a lot of adults, felt like they got the biggest hooky day ever.

Here was life on the beach at 2 p.m. today:

Image

Thank you, Haiti and Cuba for taking the brunt of this, and very best of luck to all the Storm2K members in the Carolinas and their families in the next few days.

SB
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#347 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:38 pm

not too surprising.
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#348 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it almost certainly was nowhere close to hurricane intensity when the pressure rose to 1002mb. Bets trakc will likely lower than value significantly


I agree. I doubt Ernesto was ever a hurricane; I think it will be downgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto in the TCR.
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#349 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it almost certainly was nowhere close to hurricane intensity when the pressure rose to 1002mb. Bets trakc will likely lower than value significantly


I agree. I doubt Ernesto was ever a hurricane; I think it will be downgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto in the TCR.



Huh, it was just upgraded to a TS. Wait, I see what what you mean. So forget my "huh". :lol:
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#350 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:08 pm

When was the last hurricane to be downgraded post-season? I can think of a few that were the opposite (Cindy, Gaston, etc.) but none from Hurr --> TS.
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#351 Postby skufful » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:13 pm

storms in NC wrote:http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

You can see the center just north of MelB over water


Just wondering for those of you that know, I see this moving along the coast, and not NNE, I think the image updates, but thoughts?
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#352 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:20 pm

Some stronger winds have been able to take hold in areas over the ocean, as noted in the Update. From what I'm seeing on MLB 88D, >40kt winds extend as low at about 700 feet above sea level (a little over 10 miles NE of the radar site, which, at 0.5degree elevation scan, yields a beam height of about 650'). Buoy 41009 (at 28.50N 80.17W) is reporting 35kt winds, gusting to 42.7kts, with a pressure of 29.62inHg.

EDIT: Latest base velocity scan from MLB now indicates embedded areas of about 50kt winds to the ENE of MLB. At a distance near 21mi from the radar, the beam height is about 1500' ASL. I suppose this is all inline with the latest Update from the NHC... Interestingly enough, I'm getting quite different imagery from Level 2 vs. Level 3 data.. The Level 3 data makes the radial velocities look much higher than what Level 2 would indicate. IIRC, individual bins are averaged into a gate, with, depending upon the resolution of the product, the max gate taken to represent a larger area. I assume L3 velocity data uses the max(gate) within the L3 resolution volume, since that would help explain why L3 winds look higher over a larger area than L2 winds. For example, L3 data indicates >43kt winds as low as 375m ASL, while, in the same area, L2 indicates most winds in the 34-38kt range for the same areas.
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superfly

#353 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:48 am

This looks like garbage now. Looked much better over land.
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Derek Ortt

#354 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:59 am

this has some banding now. Was just a blob over land
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#355 Postby Droop12 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:04 am

superfly wrote:This looks like garbage now. Looked much better over land.

Have you looked at the radar? It looks better now than ever. IMO, I think Ernesto may become a hurricane tomorrow. If he continues to stay offshore and not hug the coast that is. I dont know how you come to that conclusion though.
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#356 Postby stormtruth » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:16 am

Which radar are you looking at Droop?
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#357 Postby Zardoz » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:28 am

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

It actually does look pretty good again, huh?
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#358 Postby stormtruth » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:33 am

Zardoz wrote:http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JAX&loop=yes

It actually does look pretty good again, huh?


Yes, it does. Could be a much different story for SC/NC than what S. Florida experienced.
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#359 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:47 am

Looking at Ernesto right now, if I were in NC/SC I would prepare for a hurricane.
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superfly

#360 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:07 am

Ernesto will make his fifth landfall once he hits the Carolinas.
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