TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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marcane_1973
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#341 Postby marcane_1973 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:33 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
marcane_1973 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Cape Fear?

No way it goes that east
The storm is basically moving NE at the moment so the outer banks or slightly west of there looks more like a landfall now.
Your right a little more NE. Easy to see that on radar.
Yes sir you sure can see it on the radar loop. I will guess and say it comes in at Bald Head Island. This is just my opinion of course.
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#342 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:33 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:

Yep the center does not look nearly as good a couple of hours ago.


This is probably in part due to the center moving over water 3-4F cooler than it was over this morning, plus the fact that a more appreciable segment of inflow on the north and northwest side is from a continental trajectory.
Last edited by AJC3 on Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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drezee
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#343 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:34 pm

TS gust at MYRTLE BEACH


MB HVY RAIN 73 70 88 N28G39 29.63F VSB 1
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#344 Postby nequad » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:36 pm

I'm located on the northern Outer Banks...Nags Head..and have to report we are getting some decent wind gusts the past hour...but I know this is only the gradient winds between the 991 MB TS and the strong high to the north. These gradient winds will be moving north along the mid-atlantic coast tonight and tomorrow as Ernie travels northward.
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#345 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:37 pm

Max Mayfeild was just on Fox News stating it is near hurricane strength but they think it will be a strong ts. He said NC is preparing for a cat 1 though. He said his worry is the surge and flooding.
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#346 Postby Bane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:37 pm

latest wilmington radar looks like a due north motion.
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#347 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:39 pm

The central core looks to be expanding which usually is a sign that the winds are not tightening up with the pressure falls. Ernesto may have bottomed out before he runs out of water.
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#348 Postby conestogo_flood » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:40 pm

CNN headline news met said hurricane Ernesto is not a possiblilty. It will remain as a TS on landfall.
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#349 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:44 pm

Someone please tell me why they will not call this a hurricane when there is wind there that support it? I really don't undrestand.
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#350 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:45 pm

URNT12 KNHC 312143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/21:30:20Z
B. 32 deg 41 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 850 mb 1362 m
D. 40 kt
E. 49 deg 043 nm
F. 134 deg 052 kt
G. 048 deg 022 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 20:33:00 Z
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JtSmarts
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#351 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:46 pm

storms in NC wrote:Someone please tell me why they will not call this a hurricane when there is wind there that support it? I really don't undrestand.


I don't think they have actually found wind to support hurricane strength yet.
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#352 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:47 pm

No landfall in the Outer Banks is likely here, Ernesto is moving NNE and should hit west of Wilmington
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#353 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:48 pm

Since the temp. differential is up to 4C up from 2C, isn't that a sign of strengthening?
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#354 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:49 pm

Image
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#355 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:55 pm

Max Mafield said on Fox about 30 minutes ago he thought it would be the SC and NC border for landfall.
Last edited by artist on Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#356 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:59 pm

^ Yup just east of there looks good....no way cape fear
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#357 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:04 pm

keep in mind, we have had 5-6 inches of rain today and if we get more with any strongs winds greater than 50mph, we will see lots of trees just blown over. Different than the snapped in half variety from a big cane.
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#358 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:05 pm

storms in NC wrote:Someone please tell me why they will not call this a hurricane when there is wind there that support it? I really don't undrestand.


They didn't find winds to support a hurricane. 73 kt wasn't enough.
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storms in NC
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#359 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:06 pm

Normandy wrote:^ Yup just east of there looks good....no way cape fear


The Cape Fear is not that far from the border.
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#360 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:08 pm

Looks like convection is firing up over the center again. Also, the temp. differential is up to 4C, which seems like it is still slowly strengthening to me.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
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