T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board.

Hopefully the recurve will happen BEFORE 65W and some of us won't be depressed at all

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

it could stay west and be a threat to the northern leeward islands....you never know with these storms.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

[CrazyC83]

The only escape route it has is to remain west-northwest, then recurve to parallel the Gulf Stream. Since the due-north path is blocked, every other course puts Florence on land (Bermuda, the US East Coast, the Caribbean).

[greels]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

Don't forget us here in the Turks and Caicos Islands!!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

Remember...Miss Universe is from Puerto Rico!

[MiamiensisWx]

Don't forget us here in the Turks and Caicos Islands!!!!

Of course not! When I wrote "Bahamas", I had the Turks and Caicos in mind, as they, though a separate country, are part of the Bahamas chain.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's a snippet from Bob King's Palm Beach Post hurricane blog...

Tropical Storm Florence has arrived, she's huge and she should be a hurricane by Friday -- a major hurricane, according to at least two of the more reliable models. Oh, and the storm's center is further south than the hurricane center thought it was, which could be bad news for Florida if Florence's expected turn to the northwest never happens (although the meteorologists say the ultimate path is still a bit unclear).

This lends evidence that the speed and movement of Florence, the relocation of the LLC further southwest, the intensity of the western extent of the Bermuda-Azores High, and the timing and intensity of the incoming shortwave-like mid-level trough will be some key factors into a possible landfall location if Florence makes landfall on or threatens the Eastern Seaboard.

[gatorcane]

VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

I too this to mean it may not turn NW and continue on a west to west northwest track...

[HurricaneBelle]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

Remember...Miss Universe is from Puerto Rico!

Well, I for one will offer her shelter should she need to evacuate.

[terstorm1012]

hey CVWave (or anyone) what do you think will happen with the disturbance right behind Florence?

Jeff Masters was talking about a fujiwara effect this morning and his discussion was very interesting.

[Blown Away]

Wow. When this thing starts her recurve at 65W there is going to be a lot of depressed people on this board.

Hopefully the recurve will happen BEFORE 65W and some of us won't be depressed at all

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

An early recurve also puts Florence into Bermuda...

Most here understand there are land masses other than US. The recurve forecast around 65W is 300+ miles N of the islands.

[BensonTCwatcher]

We should not be too surprised to see another SW position shift at the next advisory or at least by tomorrow morning. The NHC center is in the center of an oblong NW to SE center. As the circ consolidates the new more rounded center would be South and west of the next forecast position.

Right now we have a rolling egg...

[msbee]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

thank you for remembering us!
and we cannot forget you either Gretchen!

[seaswing]

It's amazing how many people forget the Islands are land masses also. If I was you I would also be hoping for a recurve before 65w looking at Florences current direction.

Agreed. The Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, and the Antilles and vicinity are too often forgotten.

thank you for remembering us!
and you too Gretchen!

msbee: I always think of Saba when I hear of these storms heading that way. Such a small island but those people are WELL prepared! you have a beautiful chain of West Indies down there!!!

[gatorcane]

the center does seem to be tracking left of the forecast points by about 20-30 miles...

[Fusion13]

Here is a mm5fsu 120h model. Looking pretty big.

[seaswing]

WOW

[gatorcane]

wow is right

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS and CMC are also developing a fairly large system also. UKMET is smaller but, I imagine that it will join the ranks also.