TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Evil Jeremy]

i dought it,

[Sanibel]

Slow organization.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah its getting better oganized, but still not a very developed central core. But slowly but surely. I think with the system as broad as it is that winds might only be about 50-55 knots max right now. In maybe 60 by 11am tomarrow morning...After that when the central core starts developing more then we may have a cane.

[cycloneye]

No changes in the 8 PM Advisory in terms of intensity.The position at 8 was 24.1n-60.9w.

[wxman57]

I am still amazed how huge Flos windfield is!!! I speak for every Floridian i know, we ARE thanking God for the ridge!! Seriously, this season could end up for having the largest , or close to it, atlantic hurricane!! If we can have that, without people dying, wont this season end up great!!! Hardly a dud, my friends!!

I wouldn't get too excited about the size of the TS-force winds that the NHC is carrying for Florence. There were a number of ship reports around Florence today within 250nm and the winds were 20kts or less in the NE quadrant at that distance. I'd estimate the TS-force winds are no more than 150nm from the center, and that may be generous. The great distances estimated before were due to a tight pressure gradient behind the front to which Florence was attached. Florence moved away from that high now, so the gradient relaxed and the wind field is much less.

[wxman57]

No changes in the 8 PM Advisory in terms of intensity.The position at 8 was 24.1n-60.9w.

I estimate that the center is farther west, perhaps 24.1N/61.5W. The plane will be there later on to find out.

[theworld]

IMHO, there's her Eye

[huricanwatcher]

looks like shes got a slight infection in it........

[cycloneye]

No changes in the 8 PM Advisory in terms of intensity.The position at 8 was 24.1n-60.9w.

I estimate that the center is farther west, perhaps 24.1N/61.5W. The plane will be there later on to find out.

Yes Chris,recon will be the key to where is the center and what intensity the system is.

[storms in NC]

Here's a recent satellite. I've identified a couple of possible low centers. The one near 23.9N/61.1W may be the more likely of the two. The circle to the north near 24.4N/61.2W is an extrapolation of the 21Z NHC position. It's possible that there's an LLC beneath the circle to the north but a stronger MLC associated with the southern circle.

Just look I would say 23.9 but really not that much to make a differences

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You expect the eye to be slightly south...But maybe a possible one. Still not very organized. I say 50 knots.

[wxman57]

IMHO, there's her Eye

That's not an eye, just a hole in the convection south of the center. An animation will indicate that the center is/was farther northeast at that time.

[storms in NC]

You expect the eye to be slightly south...But maybe a possible one. Still not very organized. I say 50 knots.

They said cause of it size it would take longer to get oganized

[theworld]

IMHO, there's her Eye

That's not an eye, just a hole in the convection south of the center. An animation will indicate that the center is/was farther northeast at that time.

Just above that hole... 24.1N/61.5W as noted above original post.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Flos getting better looking by the hour... I just needed a couple drinks!

[storms in NC]

Flos getting better looking by the hour... I just needed a couple drinks!

By then you will not have to use a bag over her headlolololol

[wxman57]

IMHO, there's her Eye

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.88pc.jpg

That's not an eye, just a hole in the convection south of the center. An animation will indicate that the center is/was farther northeast at that time.

Just above that hole... 24.1N/61.5W as noted above original post.

Take a look at the lat/lon markers, they're every 2 degrees. The dark blue hole is near 22.9N/61.0W. The ligher blue hole to the north on the horizontal latitude line is near 24.0N/60.8W. That's fairly close to the center at the time, maybe a little west of it. There doesn't appear to be any eye forming yet, most of these darker blue spots are just low-convection areas.

[AnnularCane]

Flos getting better looking by the hour... I just needed a couple drinks!

By then you will not have to use a bag over her headlolololol

Don't listen to 'em, Flo. I think you're pretty! They're probably just jealous.

[Trugunzn]

WOW big blowup!



I wish recon left now. Ill probally be in bed by time it gets there. Me sleepy from last night party

[Jim Cantore]

Wind field shrunk a bit, 405-375, I think this could be a sign that she is getting ready to intensify.