Just my untrained guess.
If this LARGE system does as forecast? it might be too much of a good thing for the parch areas of Fla and Ga. It looks like it could pull up moisture from as far as the EPAC maybe even remants of Barbara.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/179.jpg
Sat loops seem to show the VERY broad LOOSE circ. extends from Southern Gulf >BOC>EPAC to Western Caribbean. I'd say the Upper through in the Western GOM is the key, in as how fast it treks east.
Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb
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wxman57
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Aric Dunn wrote:wxman57 wrote:You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.
rather not... there is nothing there .... easterlies blowing straight thru it ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
Perhaps you should look again. Thunderstorms are definitely consolidating across the NW Caribbean and spreading into the SE Gulf now. I think we may well see an invest declared later today. Still a fair amount of shear, but weak tropical systems can become sheared tropical storms in such an environment.
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Pressure dropping and winds increasing at Buoy 42056 in the NW carribean. Models all over the place this am with GFS moving the low through S FL, Euro thru central and NE FL, and the NAM thru the FL panhandle. Here's a snippet from a PRO MET at central Florida Hurricane Center which I thought was interesting.
From Clark Evans:
The way the upper level pattern has established itself, anything that develops is likely headed for the Florida panhandle. The trough over the Gulf isn't going anywhere; water vapor loops tonight clearly show it digging in over Mexico and the western Gulf and the system well to its north over the N. Plains isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Basically, what you see is what you get right now unless the pattern unexpectedly changes. Don't bank on it.
Second question is of what degree of development we are going to see. Generally, the sooner it develops, the more likely it gets a tropical classification. Though conditions are not overly favorable there in the NW Caribbean, shear is slightly weaker and upper level diffluence (winds moving apart directionally) is favorable for at least persistent convective development. It does have the Yucatan Peninsula to contend with, however, hindering those prospects in the short-term. The longer it waits to develop, the stronger the baroclinic (midlatitude) forcing it will encounter and thus the more likely it is of the subtropical or extratropical variety.
Tip made a good comment about the improved prospects if/as the storm starts to accelerate to the northeast; this would reduce the storm-relative shear across it and allow for some added development. We have seen a number of Gulf storms get going over the past 10 years under such conditions, with all of them ending up lopsided to the east and not particularly strong overall.
So, if we assume something gets going, what can we expect? Mostly rain. There likely won't be the long fetch or duration (or intensity) of winds to lead to significant surge -- whether tropical or extratropical. Storm intensity should be kept in check due to shear and cool SSTs generally in the mid-upper 70s over a shallow layer in the northern half of the Gulf. If it evolves baroclinically/extratropically, there's just not enough energy aloft over the Gulf to see it significantly deepen in that manner either. Think moderate tropical storm on the high end. It does have plenty of moisture to work with, though, and should spread all of it over Florida and the coastal SE into the coming weekend. As a result, a widespread moderate rain event is possible if not likely; generally 1-2" with spots at 3-6" depending on the track and structural evolution.
All of that said -- a hybrid cyclone heading for Florida into the weekend looks like a good bet, likely with some much needed rains for most if not all of the state. Will it be our second classified storm of the year? Jury is still out; I would tend to say no. One to watch, though.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
From Clark Evans:
The way the upper level pattern has established itself, anything that develops is likely headed for the Florida panhandle. The trough over the Gulf isn't going anywhere; water vapor loops tonight clearly show it digging in over Mexico and the western Gulf and the system well to its north over the N. Plains isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Basically, what you see is what you get right now unless the pattern unexpectedly changes. Don't bank on it.
Second question is of what degree of development we are going to see. Generally, the sooner it develops, the more likely it gets a tropical classification. Though conditions are not overly favorable there in the NW Caribbean, shear is slightly weaker and upper level diffluence (winds moving apart directionally) is favorable for at least persistent convective development. It does have the Yucatan Peninsula to contend with, however, hindering those prospects in the short-term. The longer it waits to develop, the stronger the baroclinic (midlatitude) forcing it will encounter and thus the more likely it is of the subtropical or extratropical variety.
Tip made a good comment about the improved prospects if/as the storm starts to accelerate to the northeast; this would reduce the storm-relative shear across it and allow for some added development. We have seen a number of Gulf storms get going over the past 10 years under such conditions, with all of them ending up lopsided to the east and not particularly strong overall.
So, if we assume something gets going, what can we expect? Mostly rain. There likely won't be the long fetch or duration (or intensity) of winds to lead to significant surge -- whether tropical or extratropical. Storm intensity should be kept in check due to shear and cool SSTs generally in the mid-upper 70s over a shallow layer in the northern half of the Gulf. If it evolves baroclinically/extratropically, there's just not enough energy aloft over the Gulf to see it significantly deepen in that manner either. Think moderate tropical storm on the high end. It does have plenty of moisture to work with, though, and should spread all of it over Florida and the coastal SE into the coming weekend. As a result, a widespread moderate rain event is possible if not likely; generally 1-2" with spots at 3-6" depending on the track and structural evolution.
All of that said -- a hybrid cyclone heading for Florida into the weekend looks like a good bet, likely with some much needed rains for most if not all of the state. Will it be our second classified storm of the year? Jury is still out; I would tend to say no. One to watch, though.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
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Aric Dunn
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wxman57 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:wxman57 wrote:You're looking in the wrong area. Look farther north in the southern Gulf for this disturbance. Moisture will be streaming northward into an upper trof/low across the north-central Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. That's where the low may form. But it'll be in a high shear environment, more of a hybrid low. Probably sub-TS force winds. Beneficial rain for Florida though, possibly. May not be organized enough for NHC to worry about it, but wouldn't rule a TD or STD out.
rather not... there is nothing there .... easterlies blowing straight thru it ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
Perhaps you should look again. Thunderstorms are definitely consolidating across the NW Caribbean and spreading into the SE Gulf now. I think we may well see an invest declared later today. Still a fair amount of shear, but weak tropical systems can become sheared tropical storms in such an environment.
I think we are looking at the same thing maybe!! the low last night was forming near hondoras ......thats for sure.. mayne your pointing out were it wll eventually organize... anyway NW carrib.... for some reason i thought you said the gulf .. its not in the gulf ... its still near honduras..
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Aric Dunn
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if anyone has noticed .. the shear over the system at least where the low center maybe forming is still slightly under better upper environment .... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
the trough over the western gulf and mexico drops further south and not as much se as forecast a day or so ago ,, it has allowed for a small upper ridge to form or central america and poop ene through yesterday and overnight ..
the longer it can stay in its present position the better chance it would have
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
the trough over the western gulf and mexico drops further south and not as much se as forecast a day or so ago ,, it has allowed for a small upper ridge to form or central america and poop ene through yesterday and overnight ..
the longer it can stay in its present position the better chance it would have
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
94W...ARE NOT RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA. THIS RAIN IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AT
31/0900 UTC NEAR 19N87W NEAR THE BANCO CHINCHORRO...JUST EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.
WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 50 TO 70 MILLIMETERS OF RAIN DURING
THE LAST 10 HOURS IN EL SALVADOR FROM THE EL SALVADOR WEATHER
BUREAU AROUND 30/0800 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11N77W...CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH...EASILY SPILLING OVER INTO
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN/ AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO GOES FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ITS ENDPOINT NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W.
ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
94W...ARE NOT RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA. THIS RAIN IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AT
31/0900 UTC NEAR 19N87W NEAR THE BANCO CHINCHORRO...JUST EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.
WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 50 TO 70 MILLIMETERS OF RAIN DURING
THE LAST 10 HOURS IN EL SALVADOR FROM THE EL SALVADOR WEATHER
BUREAU AROUND 30/0800 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11N77W...CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH...EASILY SPILLING OVER INTO
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN/ AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO GOES FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ITS ENDPOINT NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W.
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The water vapor image is showing convection near 18.5 north 84.5 west drifting NNE toward cuba.
Also the navy shear diagrams are showing a low shear environment forecast to expand northward.
Navy java loop
If the convection doesn't get blown off we might get something interesting going here.
Also the navy shear diagrams are showing a low shear environment forecast to expand northward.
Navy java loop
If the convection doesn't get blown off we might get something interesting going here.
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from NWS Miami AFD:
000
FXUS62 KMFL 310815
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING NO CLEAR
SOLUTION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST BEACH AREAS. MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THUS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND...
SLOWER THAN THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS/CMC...FASTER THAN THE
SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE UKMET...AND MOST IN LINE WITH SOLUTIONS
OFFERED BY THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH BOTH THE ONSET OF DEEP WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF A RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY MORNING. A SATURATED
COLUMN AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR INLAND AREAS DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT...BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR ALL ZONES ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HOLD LIKELY
POPS FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DROUGHT STRICKEN PENINSULA...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 310815
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING NO CLEAR
SOLUTION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST BEACH AREAS. MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THUS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND...
SLOWER THAN THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS/CMC...FASTER THAN THE
SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE UKMET...AND MOST IN LINE WITH SOLUTIONS
OFFERED BY THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF. IT STILL APPEARS THAT RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH BOTH THE ONSET OF DEEP WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF A RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY MORNING. A SATURATED
COLUMN AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY FOR INLAND AREAS DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT...BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR ALL ZONES ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HOLD LIKELY
POPS FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DROUGHT STRICKEN PENINSULA...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
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windstorm99
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wxman57
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Aric Dunn wrote:
I think we are looking at the same thing maybe!! the low last night was forming near hondoras ......thats for sure.. mayne your pointing out were it wll eventually organize... anyway NW carrib.... for some reason i thought you said the gulf .. its not in the gulf ... its still near honduras..
Correct, I was pointing to where to look for development. Wasn't much there last night.
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Thank god the shear should keep it down...NWS AFD Tampa:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 310713
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY AS TO HOW
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NAM AND UKMET
STILL ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIFTING THE LOW NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY LIFTING THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA FRI AND SAT. LATEST GFS HOWEVER
STRETCHES THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT AND MOVES IT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SAT. HAVE KEPT
CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET GUIDANCE WITH CHANCE POPS STARTING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVERYWHERE WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH FOR FRI
THROUGH SAT. HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI THROUGH SAT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTUAL
TRACK TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT
STORM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ADVECT VERY MOIST WARM AIR FROM OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND WILL BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HOT HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY WARM MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 310713
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY AS TO HOW
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NAM AND UKMET
STILL ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIFTING THE LOW NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY LIFTING THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA FRI AND SAT. LATEST GFS HOWEVER
STRETCHES THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT AND MOVES IT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SAT. HAVE KEPT
CLOSER TO NAM/UKMET GUIDANCE WITH CHANCE POPS STARTING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVERYWHERE WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH FOR FRI
THROUGH SAT. HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI THROUGH SAT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTUAL
TRACK TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT
STORM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ADVECT VERY MOIST WARM AIR FROM OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND WILL BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HOT HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY WARM MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.
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It looks like its allready a tropical depression by the satelite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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- Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!
Well, this looks like it hopefully will give us some very badly needed rain! Our area of Pinellas County is dreadfully dry! The only bad thing is that it is deciding to come to us on what was supposed to be a fun/busy outside weekend! "Taste of Pinellas" was supposed to happen in downtown St. Petersburg with numerous concerts, free to the public. Also, John's Pass at Madiera Beach was having its own Lavique Pirate days this weekend. Personally, I am supposed to be touring my new college campus all morning Saturday. -looks like that will be a very wet walk!
BUT.... I'm sooooo looking forward to a brilliant tropical rainfall event! We desperately need it! And the idea of a raindance with Ziggy Marley in concert Saturday night sounds awfully fun!
BUT.... I'm sooooo looking forward to a brilliant tropical rainfall event! We desperately need it! And the idea of a raindance with Ziggy Marley in concert Saturday night sounds awfully fun!
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HURRICANELONNY
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