Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

[windstorm99]

I still find it hard to believe how barry came about with these unfavorable conditions in place to be honest.Thankfully we got some much needed rain across florida and the lake.

Nothing left....

[wxman57]

If you look at the radar loop you can see that the squalls are not rotating around Barry's remnant LLC, which is near 26N/84.4W. The squalls are rotating around a mid to upper-level center way up north by 28N/84.8W. Barry is clearly a very sheared remnant low. May not even qualify as a TD now. It's very similar to Alberto when Alberto got ripped apart in the central Gulf last year. Remember what happened? The remnant low dissipated and the center reformed well off to the northeast beneath the mid level low where the squalls were. I think that's probably what will happen with Barry. The LLC looks dead. There' not too much chance of it regenerating if squalls are rotating into the center to the north. But I think we'll see a new center form beneath the convection over northern FL or SE Georgia later today as Barry transitions to an extratropical low. Beyond then, Barry should strengthen as an extratropical low as it moves up the east coast Sun/Mon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So far there is still a broad LLC, but overall not much. I would not think this is over 30-35 mph, with most of the stronger winds to the north and east of the center. Overall shear is moving north-northeast with the system, at 38 knots. But over the last 6 hours or so shear levels have droped some as we are moving into the axis of the trough. So over the next 6-8 hours shear could go down, in which could be why there is a small flare up near the center.

[drezee]

Convection started firing again near the center at about 830-845 UTC (45min - 1 hour ago). The 915UTC pic is the best since recon left. Barry loves to put on a show for recon! they should be there in less than 2 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

10 minute sustained winds of 38 kts and gusts to 43 kts last hour

[wxman57]

As I continue to look at the satellite imagery of Barry now that I have 1/2 cup coffee in me, I think I was half right in my last post. There is a mid-level circulation 120 nm north of Barry's LLC, but I'm not sure that a new LLC will form up there. That new burst of convection ENE of the broad low-level swirl has a bend to it that indicates a new LLC may be forming near the bottom point of that convection near 26.2N/84W. Just plotted a map of the area in GARP and obs west of Florida are 15-20 kts around what's left of Barry. However, obs up the east coast of Florida are 25-40 kts over water. That's what you'd expect in a non-tropical low - strongest winds several hundred miles east of the LLC. There isn't much convergence toward the LLC, so not much wind at landfall associated with the center. Well, about time to head to the office.

[wxman57]

Convection started firing again near the center at about 830-845 UTC (45min - 1 hour ago). The 915UTC pic is the best since recon left. Barry loves to put on a show for recon! they should be there in less than 2 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

10 minute sustained winds of 38 kts and gusts to 43 kts last hour

Yeah, that's what I said in my last post above. TS winds on the other side of Florida at the buoys but not west of Florida. Recon most likely won't find any TS force winds in the Gulf. And if the do find TS winds aloft, the conversion factor will not be anywhere near 80% for such a sheared semi-tropical system.

[swimaway19]

It looks like the inner core of thunderstorms is pretty close to coming ashore in Pinellas-Citrus Counties.
Quick question, The yellow diamonds indicate mesocyclones according to the key. Does that mean that the storms could be tornadic in nature?


[web]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TBW&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0[/web]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear appears to be lowering some,,,like I stated above. In which is allowing for another burst of convection to form near the "center" this should help put some life back into the system. Will this area of convection grow, who knows. But we will see. I think the recon will find a 35 mph tropical depression...

[Zadok]

[johngaltfla]

I'm not complaining, we needed the rain desperately. I just hope that we don't have to depend on tropical storms and hurricanes every week this season to eliminate our drought.

[NDG]

It looks like the inner core of thunderstorms is pretty close to coming ashore in Pinellas-Citrus Counties.
Quick question, The yellow diamonds indicate mesocyclones according to the key. Does that mean that the storms could be tornadic in nature?


[web]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TBW&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0[/web]

Yes, that cell west of St Pete is tornadic, it has to be watched once it moves on shore. It most likely has a waterspout already.

[jlauderdal]

I'm not complaining, we needed the rain desperately. I just hope that we don't have to depend on tropical storms and hurricanes every week this season to eliminate our drought.

These type of systems are exactly what we need, the setup of precip couldnt have been much better for florida's needs. My gauge is at 5.67 since yesterday as the systems winds down for sofla. 11pm to 4am was a very stormy period for my location. Off to northern wisconsin today for a week of fishing and tranquil weather.

[Nimbus]

As wxman57 said there is not much wind near the surface LLC.

Buoy observation

Tampa bay area is in for a few gusty thunderstorms.

Barry could have brought a little more rain, I'm afraid the storm totals are going to be a little lower than first thought in central and northern Florida.

[caneman]

Pounded by rain right now. Bay News 9 just said possible tornadic activity just off shore. Getting some Thunder too.

[JonathanBelles]

Should I worry about that cell?

[caneman]

Should I worry about that cell?

Should be North off you moving parallell to coast just off hsore moving towards Dunedin.

[TampaFl]

Tornado Watch issued now for all of Central Florida:


Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

TORNADO WATCH 330 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-017-027-035-049-053-055-057-061-069-071-081-083-093-
095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-127-021900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0330.070602T1050Z-070602T1900Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
DESOTO FLAGLER HARDEE
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
MANATEE MARION OKEECHOBEE
ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO
PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM
SARASOTA SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$

[JonathanBelles]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
728 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

FLC103-021300-
PINELLAS-
728 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...SAINT
PETERSBURG...SEMINOLE...PINELLAS PARK...PALM HARBOR...LARGO...
DUNEDIN...CLEARWATER

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 728 AM EDT...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM LARGO TO 34 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG
BEACH. THE BAND WAS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM
ACROSS PINELLAS COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND INTERSECTIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW
EXTRA TIME WHILE DRIVING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8284 2810 8281 2814 8279 2813 8265
2800 8265 2799 8267 2796 8263 2794 8270
2790 8262 2786 8260 2772 8264 2761 8274
2773 8276 2785 8287

$$

13

[Stratusxpeye]

Wonder if the cells will hold strong until north east inland tampa. We could use the one last little burst of rain.

[TampaFl]