Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[punkyg]

Anyone think 96L looks worse then it did yesterday?
I say it looks better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

the link may not work.

[Aric Dunn]

smaller but slightly better this afternoon with convection on the north a and south sides which is a big difference

[Aric Dunn]

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can't wait to see you two's reactions when we get a nice CAT 3 rolling..

[Aric Dunn]

I can't wait to see you two's reactions when we get a nice CAT 3 rolling..

huh

[wxman57]

"He's dead, Jim." Chances of 96L becoming a TD or TS now are very low, only a few percent at most. Doesn't qualify as an invest any longer, in my opinion. Circulation is very weak, if there at all. There's no inflow, and the only convergence is from outflow boundaries as isolated thunderstorms collapse. Wind shear is still forecast to steadily increase, and it's in the middle of a desert (SAL). I can't think of anything it has going for it as far as development chances, other than it's not over Kansas. Any other tropical wave would have an equal, if not better chance of development at this point (like the wave along 20W).

[Aric Dunn]

"He's dead, Jim." Chances of 96L becoming a TD or TS now are very low, only a few percent at most. Doesn't qualify as an invest any longer, in my opinion. Circulation is very weak, if there at all. There's no inflow, and the only convergence is from outflow boundaries as isolated thunderstorms collapse. Wind shear is still forecast to steadily increase, and it's in the middle of a desert (SAL). I can't think of anything it has going for it as far as development chances, other than it's not over Kansas. Any other tropical wave would have an equal, if not better chance of development at this point (like the wave along 20W).

im just going to say
I disagree on a coulple things
and agree on a couple things

[skysummit]

So you're saying there's still a chance. I gotcha! LOL

[Aric Dunn]

So you're saying there's still a chance. I gotcha! LOL

yeah .. still a fairly well defined center..

[jrod]

It is dead for now, down the road if it can survive as a naked open wave it may find favorable conditions. It won't due anything for at least the next 48hrs may find a better enviroment in 96hrs if it still exists.

[wxman57]

So you're saying there's still a chance. I gotcha! LOL

yeah .. still a fairly well defined center..

Oh, I agree there's a chance, maybe 1-2% chance of it developing. But I'd argue that the wave near Africa may have twice that chance (or more) of developing over the next 2 weeks as it crosses the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea until it reaches the Pacific (or develops and recurves). The trend is your friend, or, in this case, your enemy. The trend is toward a gradual spin-down and weakening at a time when conditions in advance of the disturbance are becoming less favorable for development. Remote, but not nonexistent chance of redevelopment. I don't think it'll be an invest at this time tomorrow, if not sooner.

As I've mentioned over the past few years, if I see a disturbance that I thinks has a real potential to develop, then I'll shout the news from the highest mountain. I'm not wishing for tropical development on a daily basis (or minute-by-minute) like most of you, I'm dreading it. If the next storm didn't form until late September I'd be perfectly happy. Too much work to do before the next storm. So my projections are certainly not based upon my desire to have some storm to track.

If 96L were to somehow develop deep convection that persists for 24 hours or more, then I'll take another look at it. But that's quite unlikely given the environment it's moving into. I'm not shouting about this disturbance because it's really insignificant now. It's just wasting my time.

[Aric Dunn]

So you're saying there's still a chance. I gotcha! LOL

yeah .. still a fairly well defined center..

Oh, I agree there's a chance, maybe 1-2% chance of it developing. But I'd argue that the wave near Africa may have twice that chance (or more) of developing over the next 2 weeks as it crosses the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea until it reaches the Pacific (or develops and recurves). The trend is your friend, or, in this case, your enemy. The trend is toward a gradual spin-down and weakening at a time when conditions in advance of the disturbance are becoming less favorable for development. Remote, but not nonexistent chance of redevelopment. I don't think it'll be an invest at this time tomorrow, if not sooner.

As I've mentioned over the past few years, if I see a disturbance that I thinks has a real potential to develop, then I'll shout the news from the highest mountain. I'm not wishing for tropical development on a daily basis (or minute-by-minute) like most of you, I'm dreading it. If the next storm didn't form until late September I'd be perfectly happy. Too much work to do before the next storm. So my projections are certainly not based upon my desire to have some storm to track.

If 96L were to somehow develop deep convection that persists for 24 hours or more, then I'll take another look at it. But that's quite unlikely given the environment it's moving into. I'm not shouting about this disturbance because it's really insignificant now. It's just wasting my time.

note taken/.. i personally understand your postion and you seem to understand most of everyone else's postion.. my simple yet complex postion is this and its going to breif.. I like to watch them!! its that simple.. since i dont work in the feild i have to "dreading" of having to go to work .. so you look for reason something would not make it(for the most part) I myself look for reason why something might stay around .. and thats fine .. thats the world .. for you .. i probably would not like the world if everyone agreed!! see we have good discussions..

[Recurve]

It seems to be a piddly twirl in an ocean desert. A single match can start a wildfire but a little sand won't start a sandstorm.

I'm not wishing for tropical development on a daily basis (or minute-by-minute) like most of you, I'm dreading it. If the next storm didn't form until late September I'd be perfectly happy. Too much work to do before the next storm. So my projections are certainly not based upon my desire to have some storm to track.

If 96L were to somehow develop deep convection that persists for 24 hours or more, then I'll take another look at it. But that's quite unlikely given the environment it's moving into. I'm not shouting about this disturbance because it's really insignificant now. It's just wasting my time.

Can I get an "Amen"
or make that "...until late November, I'd be perfectly happy."

People who don't necessarily want development don't necessarily look for ways to dismiss it. Just the opposite is true. With 96L, wary eyes will strain to see small signs of strengthening, sniff out any favorable environmental factors. The only thing the wary observers, pro or not, don't do is imagine development, fantasize if everything says its very unlikely. There are other things to focus on.

I enjoy all the observations though, I'm glad to read all the comments on this system.

[miamicanes177]

People who don't necessarily want development don't necessarily look for ways to dismiss it.

I disagree with you. It's human nature to pull for what you want to see occur. If you want development then you'll look at the glass half full. If you don't want development because it will cause you to work (or maybe you have property at risk) then you will see the glass half empty. This is why it is always important to trust only the NWS and NHC forecasts.

[jasons2k]

This thing was dead two days ago, if it ever had a chance. Hard to believe we hit 18 pages on this. Oh well, I guess times are slow...

[Aric Dunn]

People who don't necessarily want development don't necessarily look for ways to dismiss it.

I disagree with you. It's human nature to pull for what you want to see occur. If you want development then you'll look at the glass half full. If you don't want development because it will cause you to work (or maybe you have property at risk) then you will see the glass half empty. This is why it is always important to trust only the NWS and NHC forecasts.

true.. but even they are human .. and probably look at it the same as "now i a have to work" im sure there are exceptions ..

but it does not matter.. because wanting one thing or the other does not change whats going to happen!!

[wxman57]

note taken/.. i personally understand your postion and you seem to understand most of everyone else's postion.. my simple yet complex postion is this and its going to breif.. I like to watch them!! its that simple.. since i dont work in the feild i have to "dreading" of having to go to work .. so you look for reason something would not make it(for the most part) I myself look for reason why something might stay around .. and thats fine .. thats the world .. for you .. i probably would not like the world if everyone agreed!! see we have good discussions..

Ah, those simpler days before I had so much responsibility as a professional met. When I couldn't wait for the next storm to develop (and track toward me, I might add). I was just like most of you at one time. Now I'm not talking about dreading to have to go to work on a holiday or a weekend, though I don't like systems with little chance of affecting our clients to waste my time in that way. I love what I do and can't believe I'm paid to do this. When there's a real threat, I work 16-18 hour days for our clients, and I even check on a system in the middle of the short night to make sure it's behaving. What I am concerned about is providing the best possible information for our clients, some of whom are making billion dollar decisions based upon our forecasts. Yeah, that's BILLION. So we have to think very carefully about every word that we communicate to our clients. It's a big responsibility, and I don't want to let them down. I'm also fearful for my relatives along the LA and MS coasts. My mother has been flooded by 3 hurricanes since 1998 in south Mississippi (Georges, Isidore, and Katrina). She can't take another hit.

So, you all know where I'm coming from when you read my posts. I'll try to say what I think without any bias toward wanting something to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

note taken/.. i personally understand your postion and you seem to understand most of everyone else's postion.. my simple yet complex postion is this and its going to breif.. I like to watch them!! its that simple.. since i dont work in the feild i have to "dreading" of having to go to work .. so you look for reason something would not make it(for the most part) I myself look for reason why something might stay around .. and thats fine .. thats the world .. for you .. i probably would not like the world if everyone agreed!! see we have good discussions..

Ah, those simpler days before I had so much responsibility as a professional met. When I couldn't wait for the next storm to develop (and track toward me, I might add). I was just like most of you at one time. Now I'm not talking about dreading to have to go to work on a holiday or a weekend, though I don't like systems with little chance of affecting our clients to waste my time in that way. I love what I do and can't believe I'm paid to do this. When there's a real threat, I work 16-18 hour days for our clients, and I even check on a system in the middle of the short night to make sure it's behaving. What I am concerned about is providing the best possible information for our clients, some of whom are making billion dollar decisions based upon our forecasts. Yeah, that's BILLION. So we have to think very carefully about every word that we communicate to our clients. It's a big responsibility, and I don't want to let them down. I'm also fearful for my relatives along the LA and MS coasts. My mother has been flooded by 3 hurricanes since 1998 in south Mississippi (Georges, Isidore, and Katrina). She can't take another hit.

So, you all know where I'm coming from when you read my posts. I'll try to say what I think without any bias toward wanting something to develop.

nice sounds great and understand.. you get my PM?

[cycloneye]

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 11N50W
OR ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL
TSTM ACTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ALONG 49W/50W. MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SAT.


As it was stated in the 2 PM discussion from TPC,this system would be analized in this 8 PM discussion as a wave and indeed it is now.They call it a Low/Tropical Wave.The members who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands can breath more easy now.msbee,dont cancel your travel plans and leave the shutters in storage.I hope that we dont have to use them later on.

[Opal storm]

"He's dead, Jim."

Sigh...another one.