Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Derek Ortt]

as a comment, I DEPLORE the idea that something cannot develop in the E Carib, ESPECIALLY when we have seen development there fairly frequently the past few seasons.

Now, with this easterly shear... good luck, but the EC is not as unfavorable as the myth states (Ernesto formed there during an el nino year)

[NONAME]

Convection is starting to increase just a little now

[Air Force Met]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

No offence....but when weathermen can predict basic weather correct more than 75% of the time....maybe I might start listening. Until then, we have to draw our own conclusions.

Oh the age of computers. Everyone who sits at home in their underwear typing away on the keyboard and looking at their favorite (computer) model is now an expert.

Sounds like you don't need us....so why bother?

[caneman]

as a comment, I DEPLORE the idea that something cannot develop in the E Carib, ESPECIALLY when we have seen development there fairly frequently the past few seasons.

Now, with this easterly shear... good luck, but the EC is not as unfavorable as the myth states (Ernesto formed there during an el nino year)

Well I hate to see you deplore something, however, reality is that other than the last couple of years, only one storm I believe had formed in this area for quite some time. I don't have the data in front of me but I've researched it before and it's not called the zone of death for nothin.

[philnyc]

Boy....look at the next wave!

Yes. It has a lot of positives right now. Biggest negative is the mid level water vapor which shows a small pocket of drier air (40-60% RH) to its NW, but that has been diminishing in size. Upper level divergence and lower level convergence are quite favorable. Should be watched.

That's also in answer to you, Ed.

[gatorcane]

Lets talk in about 12 hours....I'm still insisting we will see development and convection will refire during the nightime hours.

It's still got a nice spin, just needs that little spark.

I respect the opinion of pro mets on this board, but I'm sticking to my thoughts on this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sounds like you don't need us....so why bother?

Well, IMHO opinion the world needs petroleum engineers even more, but it just isn't a "sexy" job. I mean, there was a Jimmy Stewart movie from the 1950s, based on the first well offshore Louisiana ("Thunder Bay", IIRC), and there was a John Wayne movie about oil well firefighters ("Hell Fighters").

But there isn't an "Oil Channel" on basic cable, and I haven't found an Oil2K blog yet, or an Oil Underground blog.


I mean, after Britney and Lindsay, what do people talk about the most? That's right, the weather.


So I wouldn't feel bad.

[philnyc]

as a comment, I DEPLORE the idea that something cannot develop in the E Carib, ESPECIALLY when we have seen development there fairly frequently the past few seasons.

Now, with this easterly shear... good luck, but the EC is not as unfavorable as the myth states (Ernesto formed there during an el nino year)

Well I hate to see you deplore something, however, reality is that other than the last couple of years, only one storm I believe had formed in this area for quite some time. I don't have the data in front of me but I've researched it before and it's not called the zone of death for nothin.

That "rule of thumb"/myth is because normally at this time of year there is monster westerly wind shear. But it's not there ALL of the time at this time of year, and this season it has been lower and at times non-existent. So you just need to look at the shear instead of following a rule that isn't always applicable.

[Ed Mahmoud]

About the Caribbean "Zone of Death", I read Joe Bastardi sometimes (as an interested amateur), and according to him, as the season progresses, and the South American landmass becomes less warm relative to the oceans around it, the negative impact on TC formation caused by the 'Colombian heat low' (his term) lessens.

[philnyc]

Lets talk in about 12 hours....I'm still insisting we will see development and convection will refire during the nightime hours.

It's still got a nice spin, just needs that little spark.

I respect the opinion of pro mets on this board, but I'm sticking to my thoughts on this.

Good for you. Always stick to your guns when you've got some science to back it up. The NHC apparently agrees with you as far as possible development right now.

[windstorm99]

This watervapor image says everything...

[caneman]

Well that may be but I think a large part of is interruption, storm outflow, heat content or what have you from the North coast of South America. It's been bantered about here for sometime but I truly believe it has soemthing to do with weather around the north coast of SA. Go back and do the research. I believe prior to a year or two ago, only one storm had formed in East Caribb in past 50 years? If not 50 it was quite a few. So, for me, I'll wait til Central Caribb.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This watervapor image says everything...

This is looking at the upper levels, but yes it is pretty dry out there. The only thing going for this system though is it seems to be carrying some of it's own moisture with it. Will that be enough for it to survive and develop down the road? I guess we will just have to wait and see..

[ronjon]

I've been holding off from commenting on this wave..taking a wait and see attitude. To all, it's dead. A mass of low level clouds. I was initially upbeat about its prospects but when I saw the models really not develop it, that is a sign that the atmosphere is just not ready with this one. Maybe down the road but I'm focusing on potential home grown action in the GOM from that dying front as the next suspect area.

[rainman31]

This water vapor image says everything...

The local TV met here just said the same thing, that 99L is going to have a hard time moving in to all that dry air.

[philnyc]

The center of the LLC is expanding; not a good sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb.jpg

[skysummit]

The NHC is not giving up yet....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

[MGC]

The sole inhibiting factor, dry air has done its work, GOOD! Personally, I hope every wave coming off Africa meets a simular fate. As far as the MJO is concerned, a few years ago I went back several seasons and determined the MJO phase when every TC formed. I noticed that about 55% of the TC that formed at any given time formed during the wet phase of the MJO, not what I would consider a significant statistic. Case in point, Chantel formed during a dry phase.

What the heck is Avila looking at? Our rapidly evaporating 99L....MGC

[JonathanBelles]

The dry air is going to, if it hasn't already, kill this system.

[miamicanes177]

I agree, conditions are favorable for this and it could become a depression soon. The waters are warmer and heat content higher the further west it moves and that will only aid intensification.