Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[skysummit]

I think we'll be seeing a statement issued within the next 30 - 45 minutes or so....maybe sooner.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any thoughts on a potential weakness left by the mess in the gulf?

It could possibly happen...but it depends on many different variables. For instance, the strength, the speed, and the movement of the feature in the GOM could all lead to different results. Also, the speed and movement of 99L will also be a big factor too. I guess we will just have to wait and see how things evolve over the next week or so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any thoughts on a potential weakness left by the mess in the gulf?

It could possibly happen...but it depends on many different variables. For instance, the strength, the speed, and the movement of the feature in the GOM could all lead to different results. Also, the speed and movement of 99L will also be a big factor too. I guess we will just have to wait and see how things evolve over the next week or so.

[cycloneye]

01/1745 UTC 12.1N 58.2W T1.0/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Not so fast peeps.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait for the final results from the RECON. SO far just SSW-SW winds have been found and we don't know the intensity of the winds at the surface.

They found a 30 mph due west wind at the surface (and also a weak due west wind at flight level) briefly.


Due west (265 degrees) wind at 25 knots

17:43:30Z 11.65N 58.13W 977.1 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 289 meters
(~ 948 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 265° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr)

Good, now I can expect a TD very soon.

[RL3AO]

I think we'll be seeing a statement issued within the next 30 - 45 minutes or so....maybe sooner.

But what will it say?

[miamicanes177]

01/1745 UTC 12.1N 58.2W T1.0/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Not so fast peeps.

Dvorak estimates do not matter because we are getting facts from recon. Recon data overrides satellite estimates.

[HURAKAN]

01/1745 UTC 12.1N 58.2W T1.0/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Not so fast peeps.

If we had trusted Dvorak with Chantal we would have had a STS this morning.

01/1145 UTC 45.1N 54.0W EXTRATROPICAL CHANTAL
01/0545 UTC 43.0N 57.4W ST2.5/2.5 03L
31/2345 UTC 42.4N 60.0W ST2.5/2.5 03L
31/1745 UTC 40.6N 62.4W EXTRATROPICAL 03L
31/1615 UTC 40.6N 62.4W EXTRATROPICAL 03L
31/1145 UTC 38.3N 64.9W EXTRATROPICAL 03L
31/0545 UTC 36.5N 65.7W OVERLAND 03L
30/2345 UTC 35.4N 65.9W EXTRATROPICAL 98L

[sevenleft]

I think we'll be seeing a statement issued within the next 30 - 45 minutes or so....maybe sooner.

But what will it say?

If they do issue a statement, it'll probably allude to the fact that it is a very poorly organized borderline tropical depression. If the convection persists another 12+ hours then they may upgrade it. It is too fragile to classify at this time.

In my opinion.

[vaffie]

We're at the peak of the diurnal minimum right now. Cloud tops are warming in and around the center of circulation. The next nine hours may be very dramatic. It will only take one major, consistent convective ball over the center tonight to drop the pressure below 1000 mb making it a 50 mph TS Dean in quick order.

[tolakram]

Is that the center peaking out beneath the clouds?


edit: the image updated and it's not as apparent, check out the loop instead.

Visible Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[vaffie]

Take with big grain of salt however--as it's at 10.8N--far away from the center of the storm.

at 18:20:00Z 10.80N 57.48W 977.1 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 239 meters
(~ 784 feet) 1004.0 mb
(~ 29.65 inHg) - From 163° at 4 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 4.6 mph) 23.6°C
(~ 74.5°F) 23.1°C
(~ 73.6°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 0 knots
(~ 0 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr)

[Ivanhater]

The thing about it now is while some areas of convection wane other areas are increasing showing it is holding on...

[Eyewall]

Wow, an extrapolated 1004.0 mb surface pressure found 214 miles due southeast of Bridgetown, Barbados.

at 18:20:00Z 10.80N 57.48W 977.1 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 239 meters
(~ 784 feet) 1004.0 mb
(~ 29.65 inHg) - From 163° at 4 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 4.6 mph) 23.6°C
(~ 74.5°F) 23.1°C
(~ 73.6°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) 0 knots
(~ 0 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr)

8 minutes before it was 1031.1mb...

[drezee]

The actual area of low pressure in near that southern blob

[vaffie]

The actual area of low pressure in near that southern blob

You're right, the lowest center of pressure is in the southern blob at about 1002 mb--which is why the plane spent time looking down there to see what was going on, but it's a very small center that will likely be swallowed up into the much bigger circulation over the course of the day.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the TPC would wait for further persistence before they upgrade 99L to a depression. The recent pressure report supports my observations and thoughts. Additionally, it looks like drezee is correct - there is a definite low-level circulation that is reforming further south. That fact would explain the E and ENE winds at some land stations. Look at this loop. I see a reforming LLC near 12N and 58.5W. Inflow is becoming more defined - this factor could support structural stacking. I think we may see a TD sooner than we think - we need more reconnaissance obs to close that center. I do think the broader circulation may swallow the southern center, so we could see numerous reformations under the convection. I do not think it will inhibit organization - look at the anticyclonic flow and lower shear.

[Derek Ortt]

we need NW winds before this is a TD. This is just a sharp trough axis at the moment

[wxman57]

That 1002.7mb pressure looks suspect. Plane is flying around the southern blob where there could be a LLC now. Most pressures around there are 1010-1011 mb. See image below. Not well organized. Don't think it's a TD, but who knows what NHC will do?

[Ivanhater]

I dont think it is a TD now..but I think it is becoming one as we speak...