Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Ivanhater]

With that large blow up of convection I'm thinking that another recon flight will be in order today unless it falls apart again.....MGC

Lets stay positive!

[Cyclone1]

Holy crap! I see it! It does look like a fish!

PS: Category Two! Woo hoo!

Early CHantal looked like a shrimp.I think this is subliminal advertising for Red Lobster

ROFL. They should really just go ahead name the hurricanes after businesses, you know like commercials. But can you imagine "Hurricane McDonalds has strengthened a bit this morning."

[RL3AO]

Just a comparison here.

The 30kt South China Sea depression



99L



Notice how much colder the South China Sea depression is.

[tolakram]

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.

I see no reason to change my thinking above. This is a classic fast moving Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. I mean classic. If recon does not find a tropical storm, then the equipment is faulty. I would gladly eat crow on this one. I could care less about the IR, the visible tells the story!

Yesterday I might have agreed because it looks impressive, but where is the evidence it's anything but a vigorous thunderstorm complex that will start to die out this afternoon? I'm learning here so consider me clueless.

[Derek Ortt]

recon should have taken off by now if it was flying since it is a 16Z invest time

[sevenleft]

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.

I see no reason to change my thinking above. This is a classic fast moving Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. I mean classic. If recon does not find a tropical storm, then the equipment is faulty. I would gladly eat crow on this one. I could care less about the IR, the visible tells the story!

Yesterday I might have agreed because it looks impressive, but where is the evidence it's anything but a vigorous thunderstorm complex that will start to die out this afternoon? I'm learning here so consider me clueless.

You are 100% correct based on the data available.

[Downdraft]

I suspect tonight's dinner will be large servings of crow one way or the other tonight. Won't be the first time and won't be the last. I may not be a pro but after 35 years of watching these things I've learning making absolute statements such as a few have done in here is a sure way to pick feathers out of your teeth later. The name of the game is wait and see. As for recon NOTflying today I think with it's proximity to the islands there is no way they wouldn't. Remember this, the NHC thanks to recent events has to prove itself all over again to a large number of people.......me included.

[Ivanhater]

TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.0N 65.5W
E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 03/1030Z
D. 30.0N 88.0W
E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Cyclone1]

Oooh, looks like they are indeed flying.

[k4sdi]

Ok, LLC = ?

[cpdaman]

yes i am learning as well, chacor's microwave pictures probably had some info regarding a possible LLC but i'm not sure how to decipher it, anyone notice a LLC on the microwave images just released or NO.

[cpdaman]

dp yikes

[RL3AO]

Ok, LLC = ?

Low level circulation

[Derek Ortt]

that was yesterdays TCPOD

[x-y-no]

The low level clouds to the S of the convection are travelling W now. Travelling at 20+ mph...I would suspect that the recon will find a Tropical Storm and a deepening one at that.

I see no reason to change my thinking above. This is a classic fast moving Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. I mean classic. If recon does not find a tropical storm, then the equipment is faulty. I would gladly eat crow on this one. I could care less about the IR, the visible tells the story!

Yesterday I might have agreed because it looks impressive, but where is the evidence it's anything but a vigorous thunderstorm complex that will start to die out this afternoon? I'm learning here so consider me clueless.

This morning's QuikScat and microwave passes are completely incompatible with this.

This won't be a TD anytime soon. At the earliest late tonight, and that only if we start getting some significant low level convergence soon. It takes time for a LLC to form.

[Chacor]

Plan was scheduled to leave 9 mins ago, and no recon reports yet.

[RL3AO]

that was yesterdays TCPOD

Date says 2/1600

[Windsurfer_NYC]

that was yesterdays TCPOD

Yes, and it would help if people would paste the date/time header, or at least reference what they are posting:

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
      FLIGHT ONE
      A. 02/1600Z
      B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
      C. 02/1400Z
      D. 14.0N 65.5W
      E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
      AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
   3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
      HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z.

   4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
      FLIGHT ONE
      A. 02/1800Z
      B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
      C. 02/1730Z
      D. 29.0N 88.0W
      E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

      FLIGHT TWO
      A. 03/1200,1800Z
      B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
      C. 03/1030Z
      D. 30.0N 88.0W
      E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
   5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
      IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                         JWP

[Chacor]

that was yesterdays TCPOD

Date says 2/1600

Issued at 011500.

[Ivanhater]

hmm..then where the heck is the plane!