Invest 99L Thread #6

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like I go away for a few hours and the board is all backwards. Usually, you're all talking up development and I'm countering your arguments. Tonight I see the convection has diminished (as I suspected it would with the rapid movement) but I still think it has a good chance of developing once it slows down, and it will slow down on Saturday. Don't read too much into the NHC outlook, they're just basically talking about development potential through tomorrow, which is lower. But such a vigorous wave will generate a burst of convection once it slows down and convergence increases significantly.

One other factor to consider - the best chance for development is Saturday - my one day off this week. So it HAS to develop on Saturday.

Ah! An intelligent post emerges. Thank you wxman57. As usual, a voice of reason.

[weatherguru18]

Is Billingsley a professional met? I had the impression he was a RTF type major in college and then did a one year program at MSU in broadcast meteorology. So I thought he was like a para-professional met.


Now, Dr. Frank on KHOU has a PhD and used to be the head guy at NHC.

The KPRC-TV weather department definitely has a bigger budget.



BTW, and OT, Elizabeth Scarborough on KPRC is the daughter of longtime WNBC anchor Chuck Scarborough. I imagine Dr. Frank Fields, who was an eye doctor, not a met, has probably retired since my family moved to Texas three decades ago. My Dad, now deceased, worked with Harold Taft, also now deceased, at American Airlines before Taft got into radio and TV weather (KXAS in Ft Worth) . Don't know if they still do, but AA used to have an entire Met department. My dad talked me out of studying that because he said they weren't paid all that well at AA

Frank Billingsley graduated from Washington and Lee Univeristy in VA. He's worked in Houston since 1989. He does have a met degree. As far as Dr. Neil Frank, whom I know, is far more qualified than any other met in this market. That's just common since. I happen to know most of the mets in this market and all are highly qualified.

[Beam]

This isn't TD10. This isn't even a Low. If convection doesn't refire overnight, it's over. If it does, it's still probably not going to develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank goodness for the pro mets.
Every one of my forecasts has been
wrong the last few days...

[Sanibel]

Coin toss. I don't ever remember seeing any system return to form from such an evaporated wave. This one seriously poofed and dried out after today's deep red bursts. I'm watching this one because if it refires it will be a first. Safe bet says no, but I won't write it off until tomorrow.

[weatherguru18]

I may not be professional yet, but I think it's mighty brave to right this system off. There are a dozen possibilities this system could do. Did anybody read my snippet?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Somewhat OT, but when I worked in New Iberia, there was a met named Rob Perillo on TV there. Now, Lafayette is very small market, but I'd dare say he seemed more informed than most of the mets here in medium/almost large market Houston.


But he is short, a little chubby, and balding. So I doubt he ever gets a shot in a bigger market.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like I go away for a few hours and the board is all backwards. Usually, you're all talking up development and I'm countering your arguments. Tonight I see the convection has diminished (as I suspected it would with the rapid movement) but I still think it has a good chance of developing once it slows down, and it will slow down on Saturday. Don't read too much into the NHC outlook, they're just basically talking about development potential through tomorrow, which is lower. But such a vigorous wave will generate a burst of convection once it slows down and convergence increases significantly.

One other factor to consider - the best chance for development is Saturday - my one day off this week. So it HAS to develop on Saturday.

Thanks, wxman57. You've been very consistent with the "possiblity of developement period" from the beginning.

[weatherguru18]

Houston, almost large market? We're in the top 10. Memphis or Kansas City might be almost large...not Houston (4th largest city in America).

[Ed Mahmoud]

I may not be professional yet, but I think it's mighty brave to right this system off. There are a dozen possibilities this system could do. Did anybody read my snippet?

I'll never be a professional unless I win the Lotto, which is especially unlikely as I rarely buy tickets, but feel totally comfortable staking the middle ground that this doesn't develop for at least two days, but might try to pop in the Western Caribbean, or perhaps even more likely, become a Pacific TC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston, almost large market? We're in the top 10. Memphis or Kansas City might be almost large...not Houston (4th largest city in America).

Well, the TV station (not naming names) that has the large chested anchor always wearing a jacket one size too small in case anyone didn't notice she had a big chest, and had "Radar the Weather Dog" struck me as the height of amateur hour type news. The news in Austin and Lafayette (my previous addresses) absolutely seemed more professional.

I guess Houston is almost large market, but I usually think LA, NY and maybe Chicago as the big time for media markets.

[srainhoutx]

I may not be professional yet, but I think it's mighty brave to right this system off. There are a dozen possibilities this system could do. Did anybody read my snippet?

I lived it with Katrina in the Lower Keys. Was entirely to busy protecting my home at the last minute due to TD 10, no TD 12, no TS Katrina crosing FL Peninsula N of Browrd County, no Hurricane Katrina coming ashore at the Miami/Dade/Broward County line and moving SW to 40 mile north of me in 48 hours.

[weatherguru18]

Houston, almost large market? We're in the top 10. Memphis or Kansas City might be almost large...not Houston (4th largest city in America).

Well, the TV station (not naming names) that has the large chested anchor always wearing a jacket one size too small in case anyone didn't notice she had a big chest

and this is a bad thing? Ok...back to topic.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This isn't TD10. This isn't even a Low. If convection doesn't refire overnight, it's over. If it does, it's still probably not going to develop.

Well let's hope this isn't TD #10. Because if it was, then I would seriously be wondering where TD #4-9 went.

[Ed Mahmoud]

99L is kaput for now, but it will, in my uneducated opinion, try to pop just before Central America where the trades slow/surface convergence is high, due to frictional effects of Central America, and if it doesn't pop before Central America, will probably pop in the East Pac, have a fun four or five days, probably make it to hurricane strength, then hit the cooler water and ingest that stable strato cu, and wind down to a low cloud swirl with a few showers, that passes near Hawaii a week to 10 from this Sunday, enhancing windward side showers and freshening the trades.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston, almost large market? We're in the top 10. Memphis or Kansas City might be almost large...not Houston (4th largest city in America).

Well, the TV station (not naming names) that has the large chested anchor always wearing a jacket one size too small in case anyone didn't notice she had a big chest

and this is a bad thing? Ok...back to topic.

I think Lucy Noland on KHOU is better looking.

But I digress...

[Sanibel]

If anybody is still paying attention, 99, if it hangs in there, is taking a dead west track for now, which makes me think there is a tongue of ridge in front of it. That would make a Yucatan/Belize track more likely if it refires. I'm holding off for now because a circular core appears to be holding on shortwave.

[swimaster20]

I wouldn't necessarily call Lafayette a very small TV market (we're around the middle of the DMA list), but anyway, I just got finished watching Rob on the 10 o'clock news. He thinks that it will get some more convective bursts, and that it is only a couple away from forming into a TD. He also believes that it will continue W or WNW and hit Central America/Yucatan.

[clfenwi]

There have certainly been cases of a wave making an inauspicious trot across the eastern Carribean before forming in the 80-85 W area. The second paragraphs of the reports on Hermine (1980) and Diane (1990) are vaguely familiar to the situation of the past three days (see also Dolly (1996)).

The system does have a bit of a TCHP maximum (TCHP chart) to run over as it makes its approach to that area, and it should be starting to (slightly) slow down in that vicinity. With just those two items for consideration, it would have an outside shot of developing on Saturday.

The big bit of uncertainty on whether it gets that shot is the upper-level shear situation. 20-30 knots in the area between 70-80W would seem to throw the chances of development to near zero. If it somehow manages to keep something together over the next 30-36 hours, then maybe just maybe it will finally develop, but that seems like a pretty large if at this time.

[srainhoutx]

spaghetti tracks seem to agree

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif