Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[Aric Dunn]

I, for one, will be glad when this reaches 30ºW and the SSD web site has 30 minute updates that post about 40 minutes after the fact. Can tell a lot more from a loop w/ 2 frames per hour.

About a daya way, the Western edge is staring to show up on the SSD animation.

you can use this link every 15 minutes
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[Aric Dunn]

He can't respond....there is no data suggesting that this goes N of the islands. His prediction is purely hope based.

Regarding the wave, Ill be interested to see when the NHC declares this, because they have sufficient evidence to name it a TD right now if they wanted to.

Most of the model runs I have seen the past few days, with the exception of the last one or two did show this going north of, or over; The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hey, not a "hope based" comment as I want NO PART of a Hurricane here!!
I do not wish this or any other Hurricane on anyone but if this is one of those "Tx vs. FL" battles; you can "win" anytime you want. In fact, you can win EVERYTIME!!!!!

This is a good quote. Recent trends have been for a further south solution. However, whose to say that the trend shifts back north over the next day or two. Nothing is set in stone beyond maybe, and this is a big maybe, the next 24 hours.

I like to reference the Models at the stage in the game as a "Flag Flapping in the Wind"

[MSRobi911]

Thanks for the link Aric!

Mary

[Normandy]

Aric,
Looking at your link and looping this it appears this system is badly sheared right now....convection is clearly being blown off to the west by shear....

HOWEVER,
When you have a QSCAT showing that kind of low level circulation, shear isn't going to keep this from developing (especially since its going to die down by tom).

[cheezyWXguy]

Im still a bit skeptical about the organization of it at this point...Based on the shear profiles at this point, it still maybe sheared to some extent, and the possible center maybe exposed fromt the deep convection...Im not sure, but i guess we will find out tomorrow when the visibles start coming in, or if the NHC has something else to say about this storm that says it has become better organized.

in terms of track forecast, Im pretty sure this will continue west into the ECarib, based on the recent model consensus. Although the runs over the last couple of days have been north of the leewards or PR, the models probably have a better hold on the intensity and location of the storm and have all shifted south with amazing consistency and agreement.

For the intensity, I believe, if the center really is underneath the deep convection at this point, it could become a depression tomorrow, late afternoon at earliest, but that is MY OPINION, DONT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. I believe this because of the progreesively improving conditions the system will encounter on its westward journey, and the antillies, if it moves in that direction, could be facing a fairly strong storm in the next 5-7 days.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,
Looking at your link and looping this it appears this system is badly sheared right now....convection is clearly being blown off to the west by shear....

HOWEVER,
When you have a QSCAT showing that kind of low level circulation, shear isn't going to keep this from developing (especially since its going to die down by tom).

exactly .. the shear if you look out ahead of it is much more condusive. so later tomorrow we should see some more orginization..

and use that loop but do all 24 images ... there is a key thing to note and that is convection keeps re-firing which is a sign of a healthy surface circulation. So i have no doubt that it will survive this brief encounter with the shear

[hurricanefloyd5]

this will be more then likely to be dean right if at all oh wait on sure it will/could be dean!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody got the URL for the B/U NRL Monterrey satellite page?

[Aric Dunn]

Anybody got the URL for the B/U NRL Monterrey satellite page?

this is the only one that is working right now
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks...

[Aric Dunn]

yep definitely more convection firing.. lets see if its a bit larger than the last one

[hurricanefloyd5]

come on let's see TD#4/TS Dean FORM COME ON WAVE YOU CAN DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!opps sorry for the caps everyone and mods.LOL

[Aric Dunn]

looks like this current burst maybe a little more substantial than the last
latest

[harmclan]

205 AM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 20W S OF 20N. A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 12N20W OR
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50
NM OF 12N23W.

[Normandy]

It is clear that this has a very very potent low level circulation....I don't know if we wanna cheer this particular one on.

[harmclan]

816
WHXX01 KWBC 120033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 20.8W 13.0N 23.8W 14.1N 27.6W 15.2N 32.3W
BAMD 11.8N 20.8W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 29.2W 12.8N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 20.8W 12.6N 24.5W 13.3N 28.5W 13.9N 32.8W
LBAR 11.8N 20.8W 12.1N 24.2W 12.7N 28.0W 13.1N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 37.2W 17.5N 46.9W 17.6N 56.2W 16.3N 64.6W
BAMD 13.0N 37.2W 13.3N 44.9W 13.6N 52.3W 13.9N 58.3W
BAMM 14.3N 37.2W 14.5N 46.0W 13.9N 54.2W 13.1N 60.0W
LBAR 13.7N 36.5W 13.8N 44.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

Its getting bigger

[artist]

http://img507.imageshack.us/my.php?image=90l812qj0.jpg

close up of center

[Brent]

Looking good!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All the data I've looked at shows this very close if not a depression. Lets see if more convection can keep flaring up, then we should have a cyclone.