Global Models for 90L

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richtrav
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#341 Postby richtrav » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:53 pm

Hmm, that looks like right where Emily went in - I was just down there today
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#342 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:04 am

Brent wrote:Consistency is amazing here.


I know it happens, but that would be @ 68 degrees of longitude and only 12 degrees latitude.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#343 Postby sunnyday » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:27 am

Please excuse my lack of knowledge, but is this the system that some predict will take a sudden northerly turn into south Florida? 8-)
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#344 Postby hicksta » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:33 am

Its 252 hours out, those runs are going to be off by alot. Or atleast i hope so :double:
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#345 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:37 am

I can't believe we have this many pages on something that is not even a depression yet.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#346 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:38 am

HouTXmetro wrote:I can't believe we have this many pages on something that is not even a depression yet.


Were you gone the week of 99L?
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#347 Postby mgpetre » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:38 am

HouTXmetro wrote:I can't believe we have this many pages on something that is not even a depression yet.


Well, it's been a slow season so far, and I'm pretty sure this is a depression at this point, just a long ways out. This one WILL develop into something.
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#348 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:46 am

Is it just me, or does the 00 UTC run of the ECMWF no long develop this system?

EDIT: nevermind. For some reason it loaded last weeks run instead of this weeks..
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#349 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:49 am

00 CMC much more northerly course
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#350 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:53 am

00z UKMET has it near P.R
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#351 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:56 am

The 00 UTC run of the ECMWF also has this more north, about 100-200 miles offshore of the east side of Florida in 240 hours.

Image
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#352 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:56 am

New GFDL loses System
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#353 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:56 am

AtlanticWind wrote:00 CMC much more northerly course

And MUCH slower... Bahamas at 240 :roll:


USTropics wrote:The 00 UTC run of the ECMWF also has this more north, about 100-200 miles offshore of the east side of Florida in 240 hours.

Image


Old run :wink:
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#354 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:01 am

AtlanticWind wrote:New GFDL loses System

No freakin way. Something stinks here.
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#355 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:02 am

Can you post map?
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#356 Postby Jam151 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:08 am

860
WHXX04 KWBC 130519
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 27.2 275./15.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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#357 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:12 am

Animated GFDL on this page:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Just one run of just one model. (Assuming we trust it is valid to begin with.)

90L is not going away that easy.
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#358 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:13 am

CMC goes north.
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#359 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:14 am

Two of the more reliable models (in a relative sense) now kill the storm... is it a glitch or not? Doesn't the open Atlantic have far fewer surface observations and upper air data than the African continent? So wouldn't the model accuracy go down now? I don't know, but something's fishy. Especially considering that the GFDL runs off the GFS.
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Re:

#360 Postby mgpetre » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:15 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Animated GFDL on this page:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Just one run of just one model. (Assuming we trust it is valid to begin with.)

90L is not going away that easy.


It doesn't even look like this model comes close to initializing 90L as it stands right now, so to quote Jesse Jackson "isn't it a moot point?"
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