2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Agree with him, still haven't seen the switch flip expected of a hyperactive season

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1567092313213599747?s=20&t=KIOEPDQsRaOnRBQxPxcRug

Most dropped the phrase "hyperactive season" at least a month ago, the words in question are "above average" season.

Meant to say above-average and for some reason thought of hyperactive, my bad. Anyways, even 1988 which seems to be everyone's favourite analog at the moment ended with 103 ACE. So even getting to that is going to be a tough job.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1566883839347200003

This seems like an exaggeration. We lost too much time to achieve a hyperactive season or anything close to it. The season will really have to explode from here on out in order to make up for it. Although activity has definitely picked up and looks to continue for the foreseeable future, at this point we need a chain of long-trackers through October and November, and as we all know the MDR starts to quiet down by then and activity shifts towards the western part of the basin which on average generates less ACE.

[aspen]

Agree with him, still haven't seen the switch flip expected of a hyperactive season

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1567092313213599747?s=20&t=KIOEPDQsRaOnRBQxPxcRug

Most dropped the phrase "hyperactive season" at least a month ago, the words in question are "above average" season.

Meant to say above-average and for some reason thought of hyperactive, my bad. Anyways, even 1988 which seems to be everyone's favourite analog at the moment ended with 103 ACE. So even getting to that is going to be a tough job.

The only ways we’re getting past 100 ACE at this rate are if both the 9/8 and 9/12 waves become long-tracking majors, or we get a 2020-esqe late season, or both. October to November is kind of a wild card, but the models do like the next two waves, and they’ll be timed with peak climo and a positive Kelvin Wave. Maybe we’ll finally get the MDR activity that the models have wanted for months now.

[Deshaunrob17]

I don’t know about busts or any agenda driven ideas for the season. It seems like it’s progressing as it would have with the factors that are in place. Maybe things aren’t conventional, and there have been fewer opportunities for storms to form due to the slow westward propagation, dry air that was around, anomalous waters in the NW Atlantic, etc. it should have been obvious from a couple weeks back that we would have a couple to a few storms in the early part of September and be to E/F/G storm by the peak and probably I or J by the end of the month. Pay attention to the MJO forecast trends by late week as they should give a hint as to weeks 3 and 4 in September and what we might see. As I always say, you have to have players on the field to get development, and if waves are slower to get across there will be fewer opportunities for systems of tropical origin to form in the western basin. It’s still hot off the Mexican Riviera so don’t be surprised to see a decent storm rake the coast and come inland in Southern California or Arizona next week. I’m also thinking a system at the right place and time could get pulled into the Canadian Maritimes before mid October.

Every years there is something.. In 2020, it was too many short lived storms and hurricanes… No long-tracked powerful hurricanes…In 2017 and 2004, it was if wasn’t for Irma and Ivan …..

[toad strangler]

Too much emphasis on ACE. It's so frustrating to me. Thankfully, it's not a metric noted in this threads title. Indicators still show that people in strike prone areas need to stay vigilant.

[tolakram]

Measuring seasons IS frustrating to some extent, but to be fair a season as overhyped as this one is bound to draw those comparisons.

We have strayed a long way from indicators though, as talk of ACE or what has happened in the past is NOT an indicator. Let's refocus on something more useful than how the season might turn out. There is a thread for this season's (under)performance here: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122927

[Hammy]

Most dropped the phrase "hyperactive season" at least a month ago, the words in question are "above average" season.

Meant to say above-average and for some reason thought of hyperactive, my bad. Anyways, even 1988 which seems to be everyone's favourite analog at the moment ended with 103 ACE. So even getting to that is going to be a tough job.

The only ways we’re getting past 100 ACE at this rate are if both the 9/8 and 9/12 waves become long-tracking majors, or we get a 2020-esqe late season, or both. October to November is kind of a wild card, but the models do like the next two waves, and they’ll be timed with peak climo and a positive Kelvin Wave. Maybe we’ll finally get the MDR activity that the models have wanted for months now.

CFS has consistently shown a heavily backloaded season since July, with little activity before September, and with activity stretching into November. All it takes is one or two intense late-September/October hurricanes.

So far everything's largely on schedule even if the exact timing is varying by a week or so.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just glancing at the visible satellite of the eastern Atlantic. You can see SAL is not as thick, and seems to be traveling in a more westerly direction, instead of being driven SW into the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago. Also, the wave just W of the Cabo Verde islands seems to be soaking up some of the SAL, perhaps allowing more favorable conditions for the waves to come.

[Hammy]

The void of Caribbean and Gulf activity and the low latitude of the recurves if the models are correct, along with seeming inability of things to get going south of 20N is giving this season a mixture of 2006 and 2012 feel

[shansgonefishin]

I wonder how 1976 might compare when all is said and done, the heat wave across Europe was very similar to this years, and looking at Wikipedia for that years Atlantic Hurricane Season, showed a quiet year (10 named storms) with next to nothing in the Caribbean and mostly fish storms….

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[galaxy401]

Regardless of how the rest of September looks, the Atlantic looks pretty good right now. Got a persistent hurricane all the way up the 45th parallel and another that's about to become a major soon. There will probably be another storm that'll develop soon as well.

[LarryWx]

Regardless of how the rest of September looks, the Atlantic looks pretty good right now. Got a persistent hurricane all the way up the 45th parallel and another that's about to become a major soon. There will probably be another storm that'll develop soon as well.

As of now Sept has had ~17-18 of ACE for the first 7 days. That compares to ~15 1991-2020 normal. Pretty impressive turnaround from the total shutout of August.

[ChrisH-UK]

I wonder how 1976 might compare when all is said and done, the heat wave across Europe was very similar to this years, and looking at Wikipedia for that years Atlantic Hurricane Season, showed a quiet year (10 named storms) with next to nothing in the Caribbean and mostly fish storms….

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Actually looking at the El Nino/La Nina figures 1975 holds up quite well with what has happened this year, 1975 was a third year of La Nina and only really started it the end of August. It had some early on storms like we have had in the Bay of Campeche that just failed to become storms as they came ashore.

[Nuno]

Just glancing at the visible satellite of the eastern Atlantic. You can see SAL is not as thick, and seems to be traveling in a more westerly direction, instead of being driven SW into the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago. Also, the wave just W of the Cabo Verde islands seems to be soaking up some of the SAL, perhaps allowing more favorable conditions for the waves to come.

Where did the SAL of July/August compare to previous seasons? Was it average or above average? I assume it was the SW direction that had to do with it lingering more than I thought it would?

[LarryWx]

I wonder how 1976 might compare when all is said and done, the heat wave across Europe was very similar to this years, and looking at Wikipedia for that years Atlantic Hurricane Season, showed a quiet year (10 named storms) with next to nothing in the Caribbean and mostly fish storms….

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Actually looking at the El Nino/La Nina figures 1975 holds up quite well with what has happened this year, 1975 was a third year of La Nina and only really started it the end of August. It had some early on storms like we have had in the Bay of Campeche that just failed to become storms as they came ashore.

Note the hit on the Gulf coast of FL, a common theme to all eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs back to the the 1800s, especially late September and beyond.

[MarioProtVI]

Well, now we know for a fact this isn’t 2013 2.0 because Earl just became a C2.

[Teban54]

Well, now we know for a fact this isn’t 2013 2.0 because Earl just became a C2.

We are also likely to surpass 2013's ACE total after Danielle and Earl are gone.

[Steve]

Here’s the juice for the Gulf low if it forms tomorrow or Friday

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[Category5Kaiju]

Earl is on its way to major hurricane status, so that storm alone would be the final blow for 2013 2.0 comparisons (not to mention I think we could easily surpass 36 ACE once that storm leaves the picture).

Those who joke is one thing; those who seriously believe that a 2013 repeat is going to happen is another thing. The conditions in 2013, between the THC collapse and the cool neutral, non-La Nina conditions, are simply not comparable with this year. I always had my very firm doubts that a 2013 repeat was going to happen; the factors that contributed to that year happening, much like 2005, were so extraordinary that imho the statistical chances of a future season being like that or even more extreme are extremely slim. I think if anything, I'm even less inclined to believe that whether we're in the early stages of the 2023 hurricane season, or 2024, or 2030, or so forth, that 2013 repeat comparisons will ever hold.

You would think that after enough hurricane seasons, the frequency of serious 2013 repeat comparisons would really diminish and eventually vanish. We're at 9 seasons and counting.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just glancing at the visible satellite of the eastern Atlantic. You can see SAL is not as thick, and seems to be traveling in a more westerly direction, instead of being driven SW into the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago. Also, the wave just W of the Cabo Verde islands seems to be soaking up some of the SAL, perhaps allowing more favorable conditions for the waves to come.

Where did the SAL of July/August compare to previous seasons? Was it average or above average? I assume it was the SW direction that had to do with it lingering more than I thought it would?

I'm not an SAL expert, but I remember seeing some chatter on Twitter that SAL was pretty average this year, nothing to write home about. I believe SAL is always pretty prevalent in July, which is one reason why July is typically pretty quiet. This year, the SAL seemed to linger a bit longer, and July type conditions lasted thru August. Also, there has been a pattern of subsidence throughout the Atlantic MDR this year that also led to less development. So my observation about the SAL in the past week is more that the pattern seems to be changing to perhaps a more favorable one, but it is just one ingredient in a pie that includes ENSO, MJO, SSTs, position and character of the ITCZ relative to the ever present dust etc.