2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, I think it's important to keep in mind that some late season major storm that appears out of nowhere in an other very quiet season has historic precedent. 2016 to a certain degree had this, with Matthew. In 1910 and 1929 too. I kind of understand why some folks here may be looking already ahead to 2023 for activity, but let's face it: unless you have clairvoyant, futuristic vision, there's really not a surefire way of knowing at this point in time if even late this month or October, something like that would happen. Even last year, I recall people in mid-September thinking the season was pretty much over with models not showing much, and then Sam formed on September 22 to close out the month. The way I see things, in the tropics at least, 21 days is quite a bit of time.

Yes, the basin can be unfavorable, but a small pocket of favorable conditions and the right stimulus and the right time can be enough to completely change the course of the season. If such a principle did not exist, then we would have never seen seasons like 1910, 1921, 1929, 1977, 1992, or 2016. Unlike 2013, this season has still managed to produced stronger hurricanes, so I'm not quite sure. If we don't see a thing until October and still see nothing, then yeah I'll bite then. But otherwise, I am still a firm believer of the idea that "inactive, quiet season overall does not equal to absolute zero possibility of seeing one or two dangerous land-threatening systems." And the more time the W. Atlantic remains undisturbed by systems, the more I am inclined to believe that if something were to encounter at least locally favorable conditions, then things could really get spicy, especially with what is undeniably very high UOHC and ssts. So in the meantime, I will wait. In fact, I actually could care less about overall activity, because even if there's a massive forecast bust there, that statistic could become relatively meaningless if impacts are made, as in if some place were to get hit by a strong, destructive storm later in the season. I actually recently made a bet with a close pal of mine, and the winner will be decided sooner rather than later: the question is, "regardless of overall activity and total ACE, will 2022 eventually feature at least one powerful, landfalling hurricane somewhere?" I think yes, and she thinks no. We'll see!

[Deshaunrob17]

I think they updated the euro to be more tropical cyclone friendly, especially after it basically had major problems seeing hurricanes in 2020. Also, with seasonal forecast, remember many years the euro was the bearish model with seasonal forecast. They made it too tropical cyclone friendly in my opinion this year.. We also saw hints of this last year with Elsa and a few others.
I have always believed that the euro will be the downfall with forecasting because a lot people hang on to it without considering the other models. I was to bring this up a month ago when I saw many tweets like the King has spoken, if the Euro doesn’t show it….

[galaxy401]

With Earl becoming extratropical soon, it looks like there will be no storms for the next week. Has there ever been a season with 0 ACE at all from September 10-15? Even inactive seasons had at least 1 TS during that time.

[WiscoWx02]

With Earl becoming extratropical soon, it looks like there will be no storms for the next week. Has there ever been a season with 0 ACE at all from September 10-15? Even inactive seasons had at least 1 TS during that time.

Imagine extending that to the end of September Honestly we are at peak season, have a CCKW tracking through the Atlantic and not even a wave at 8 degrees north can maintain convection. To me this is a sign that after Earl pulls on out, we’ll have to wait till 2023 to see the Atlantic produce anything meaningful. I think October is going to end of being fools gold just like last year.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So that the Atlantic Nina may be one of the reasons why this year is so dead, but Joe B is afraid that this may not last long.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1568236298170941442?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

While a poorly understood phenomenon, I genuinely do not think the Atlantic Nina is responsible for this inactivity. Years in the past that had an Atlantic Nina have been active, with a notable example being 2005.

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

[skyline385]

While a poorly understood phenomenon, I genuinely do not think the Atlantic Nina is responsible for this inactivity. Years in the past that had an Atlantic Nina have been active, with a notable example being 2005.

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578

[cycloneye]

When NHC drops areas of interest in the TWO on the peak, something is not right about this 2022 season.

[Iceresistance]

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

This might be OT here, but is winter going to be even more brutal?

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the bigger question to ask is, "what exactly will it take for all of these dry air entrainment shenanigans to end?" Does us transitioning into meteorological autumn (or mid to late September onwards) change the game plan? Does something in the subtropics have to change? Are there signs that this general pattern we're seeing now will change, or not change?

[aspen]

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

The article mentions SHem stratospheric cooling resulting in NHem stratospheric warming, which then results in a -NAO pattern with a displaced high over the mid-latitudes. This season has had a displaced high that has fueled the marine heatwave and allowed for wave-breaking. I think we now have some very good evidence that the Tonga eruption may indeed be to blame for this incredibly suppressed season.

Looks like it’ll could be a hectic winter here in the Northeast if the polar vortex weakens as expected from NHem stratospheric warming. Also, the disrupted weather patterns from the Tonga eruption could stick around for a while, because I remember the study that determined the level of water vapor ejected into the upper atmosphere also concluded that the WV plume may take an entire decade to circulate out.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

The article mentions SHem stratospheric cooling resulting in NHem stratospheric warming, which then results in a -NAO pattern with a displaced high over the mid-latitudes. This season has had a displaced high that has fueled the marine heatwave and allowed for wave-breaking. I think we now have some very good evidence that the Tonga eruption may indeed be to blame for this incredibly suppressed season.

Looks like it’ll could be a hectic winter here in the Northeast if the polar vortex weakens as expected from NHem stratospheric warming. Also, the disrupted weather patterns from the Tonga eruption could stick around for a while, because I remember the study that determined the level of water vapor ejected into the upper atmosphere also concluded that the WV plume may take an entire decade to circulate out.

I, for one, and very excited and curious to see how hurricane seasons in the future will pan out if that's the case. Granted, I'll be nearly 30 when we might have a better idea on that decadal aspect you mentioned, but assuming that volcano theory is indeed correct, I wonder if 2023, 2024, and so forth could suffer dry air intrusions (making this year not an anomaly but a precedent-setter), or if this year is indeed just some crazy anomaly and future seasons behave as they would be expected to given ENSO states and that stuff.

[Iceresistance]

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

The article mentions SHem stratospheric cooling resulting in NHem stratospheric warming, which then results in a -NAO pattern with a displaced high over the mid-latitudes. This season has had a displaced high that has fueled the marine heatwave and allowed for wave-breaking. I think we now have some very good evidence that the Tonga eruption may indeed be to blame for this incredibly suppressed season.

Looks like it’ll could be a hectic winter here in the Northeast if the polar vortex weakens as expected from NHem stratospheric warming. Also, the disrupted weather patterns from the Tonga eruption could stick around for a while, because I remember the study that determined the level of water vapor ejected into the upper atmosphere also concluded that the WV plume may take an entire decade to circulate out.

I, for one, and very excited and curious to see how hurricane seasons in the future will pan out if that's the case. Granted, I'll be nearly 30 when we might have a better idea on that decadal aspect you mentioned, but assuming that volcano theory is indeed correct, I wonder if 2023, 2024, and so forth could suffer dry air intrusions (making this year not an anomaly but a precedent-setter), or if this year is indeed just some crazy anomaly and future seasons behave as they would be expected to given ENSO states and that stuff.

Well, what if the drier-than-normal area drifts out before this season ends and the Tropical disturbances take advantage of it?

[TheDreamTraveler]

I really think the massive underwater volcano eruption back in January in Tonga may, in part, have to do with the overall weirdness of this hurricane season Worldwide. It's possible that the huge amount of water vapor that the volcano threw up into the atmosphere may have led to (1) more moisture in the atmosphere that (2) created more clouds in the mid and high latitudes that (3) led to the warmer overall temps that you see in the mid latitudes. These warmer temps led to the stability that you are now seeing in the deep tropics.

This is just a theory and I am going to be extremely fascinated to read all of the studies done on what happened this hurricane season.

Yep that's what I'm leaning on right now too. The amount of water vapor is literally unprecedented and there's no analog we really have to this type of underwater eruption ejecting this much water vapor into the stratosphere. Tonga was at the perfect level underwater and powerful enough to eject so much water vapor so far up into the stratosphere. There's no way adding an extra 10% of water vapor wouldn't have an effect on global climate patterns. The NASA study did state that outright that that would happen

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

Both those tweets are absolutely perfect at illustrating the effects the eruption had. It can't be a coincidence that the southern hemisphere is experiencing the worst cold its seen in decades just months after Tonga erupted. Everything on Earth is connected to each other in some way or the other. It would make perfect sense if this was starting to have an influence on the atlantic hurricane season. Maybe even the global northern hemisphere tropics as well considering all the basins are abnormally quiet

[LarryWx]

With Earl becoming extratropical soon, it looks like there will be no storms for the next week. Has there ever been a season with 0 ACE at all from September 10-15? Even inactive seasons had at least 1 TS during that time.

The last one was 1992 and then 1985 along with 1975 (both 3rd year cold ENSO analogs), and then 1966.

Looking back at the 8 ENSO 3rd year analogs, 4 of 8 had no TC 9/10-15: 1985, 1975, 1917, and 1894. These 4 years had high impact storms that formed in the MDR (mainly 50-60W) soon after fwiw.

[skyline385]

Blake with an interesting point here, barely any thunderstorms in the MDR which is just incredible

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1568551558266118145





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[crownweather]

In case anyone has a hard time visualizing just how much water vapour was injected into the upper atmosphere, this tweet from a few days back shows it perfectly. Also, here is an excellent article going into more detail on this

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1567294624787480578?s=20&t=cz-7TQTYOJgTAEHj6j-bkw

The article mentions SHem stratospheric cooling resulting in NHem stratospheric warming, which then results in a -NAO pattern with a displaced high over the mid-latitudes. This season has had a displaced high that has fueled the marine heatwave and allowed for wave-breaking. I think we now have some very good evidence that the Tonga eruption may indeed be to blame for this incredibly suppressed season.

Looks like it’ll could be a hectic winter here in the Northeast if the polar vortex weakens as expected from NHem stratospheric warming. Also, the disrupted weather patterns from the Tonga eruption could stick around for a while, because I remember the study that determined the level of water vapor ejected into the upper atmosphere also concluded that the WV plume may take an entire decade to circulate out.

I, for one, and very excited and curious to see how hurricane seasons in the future will pan out if that's the case. Granted, I'll be nearly 30 when we might have a better idea on that decadal aspect you mentioned, but assuming that volcano theory is indeed correct, I wonder if 2023, 2024, and so forth could suffer dry air intrusions (making this year not an anomaly but a precedent-setter), or if this year is indeed just some crazy anomaly and future seasons behave as they would be expected to given ENSO states and that stuff.

And you know when I researched and wrote my first hurricane season forecast for 2022 way back in April, I thought to myself whether the Tonga volcano could have a negative impact on the hurricane season. At the time though, I thought those impacts wouldn't quite impact the 2022 season, but would definitely impact the 2023 season after a wild/cold North Hemisphere winter. Hindsight is 20/20, but I still think the effects from the volcano will definitely impact this coming winter's weather and probably will negatively impact the 2023 hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Peak day. On average for this date, the numbers are 8/5/1 and ACE is 58.2. Will this season recuperate and have an average season?

[Ntxw]

Broad conditions remain relatively unfavorable, no sign of any major shake up medium term. This is not limited to the Atlantic, the globe overall still not looking great. Risk of <80 ACE unit season increasing.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me, or have models had this thing this year where they would predict storms to happen, only for such to not verify (in other words, the models have been, to a degree, pretty bad)?

[aspen]

Is it just me, or have models had this thing this year where they would predict storms to happen, only for such to not verify (in other words, the models have been, to a degree, pretty bad)?

This has been the anti-2020. Instead of every disturbance spinning up and the models struggling to catch up, now the vast majority of disturbances die off despite much better model support. This year probably has had more failed AOIs/Invests/model storms than the last few years combined.