ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

It appears if even half of that is in play for the Atlantic this upcoming season, I won't be following.

If you are a hurricane enthusiastic person you will like this years EPAC season as some big ones may develop with this pattern shaping up.

I won't get my expectations too high on the EPAC quite yet as ENSO is still below 0, but that's for another thread.

Is there any chance this could pull a 2012 and bust?

[Cyclenall]

I notice peeps are using 2012 as the year that both basins were slow or uninteresting, why pick that one when last year was the biggest joke this decade and even decades? Sure, 2012 wasn't great but it was 2003 compared to 2013.

[Ntxw]

I won't get my expectations too high on the EPAC quite yet as ENSO is still below 0, but that's for another thread.

Is there any chance this could pull a 2012 and bust?

Any event can bust there is no gimmes in weather. But just because 2012 busted doesn't mean this one will. Circumstances are different and the players are different. 2012 came just short the second half of the year after a promising start. We can't get too far ahead of ourselves and call this a Nino because it isn't yet, but the signs are growing pointing towards one. Ceiling is higher for this one because the warm pool underneath is bigger and warmer than anything 2012 had. We still have to sustain it. The current pool once it up-wells will hold warm values for about 1-2 months from mid spring to early summer. We'll need feedback and additional warm pools to develop especially in late summer to sustained it through fall and eventually winter.

[Ntxw]

Within the next 5 days we will lose the big +SOI of the past 30 days. Unless we see an equal amount of positives (+20s) which looks unlikely then we will see 30 day SOI go negative.

[cycloneye]

This has to be a brief blip.

[cycloneye]

Within the next 5 days we will lose the big +SOI of the past 30 days. Unless we see an equal amount of positives (+20s) which looks unlikely then we will see 30 day SOI go negative.

Down to +1.7.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What a messy sea surface temperature map, in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

If I had to guess (just based off precedence), this subsurface warm pool will warm all ENSO regions to a degree, but not enough to throw us into an El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Additonal kelvin waves will be needed to do the flip to El Nino

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to watch that cool area from 120W to 100W because that may have more to do with the season then if El Nino forms because if that cool area between 100W to 120W remains the hurricane season could be very 2004 like but I did leave that opening in my forecast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

I'm going to watch that cool area from 120W to 100W because that may have more to do with the season then if El Nino forms because if that cool area between 100W to 120W remains the hurricane season could be very 2004 like but I did leave that opening in my forecast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That is a good area to watch. We'll have to see how the current warm pool behaves when it starts up-welling later next month into April. I don't think the overall state of the atmosphere matches well with the early to mid 2000s. You had +AMO and +PDO with a lot of heat energy from El Nino's and weak ninos coming from the Ocean to the atmosphere. We've been in a very stable atmospheric state in the Pacific (and as a result the globe) for quite some time with the -PDO and La Nina. We actually had a -AMO reading in January I believe. I think a good place to start would be the 70s and or early 1900s but data back then is sparse.

[cycloneye]

Ntcw, there are right now two cyclones in each hemisphere. (03W and 16P) That will help with the wind bursts right?

[cycloneye]

Ntcw, there are right now two cyclones in each hemisphere. (03W and 16P) That will help with the wind bursts right?

Well,Dr Masters said it all.

Two Pacific tropical storms form, boosting the odds of an El Niño

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are ripe for an El Niño event to develop this spring or summer. As detailed in a guest blog post by WSI's Dr. Michael Ventrice on February 21, all that is needed to trigger an El Niño this spring or summer are strong and persistent bursts of westerly winds in the Equatorial Pacific to help push warm water from the Western Pacific Warm Pool eastwards towards South America. Two tropical storms capable of doing just that formed in the Pacific on Friday, boosting the odds that we will see an El Niño event this spring or summer. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Faxai formed Friday morning about 400 miles southeast of Guam. The minimal 40 mph tropical storm is located close to the Equator, at 9°N latitude, which means the the counterclockwise wind circulation around the storm will drive west-to-east winds along the Equator, giving a substantial push to warm waters attempting to slosh eastwards towards South America and start an El Niño event. Faxai is expected to intensify to a Category 1 typhoon by Monday, but is not a threat to any islands. In the South Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Sixteen formed Friday morning near the island of Fiji. This minimal 40 mph tropical storm is moving south-southeast at 10 mph, and is expected to slowly intensify to a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds by Monday. The clockwise circulation of winds around the storm will also help drive westerly winds near the Equator that will boost the odds of an El Niño event. However, since this storm is farther from the Equator (16°S), it will not have a strong an impact on boosting El Niño odds as Tropical Storm Faxai will.

[Kingarabian]

SOI down to +0.7.

[Ntxw]

SOI down to +0.7.

The next 3 days we lose the 20s+ SOI, it will go negative if not tomorrow, surely the next day. No more big positives in the way from the 30 day average.

Ntcw, there are right now two cyclones in each hemisphere. (03W and 16P) That will help with the wind bursts right?

Well,Dr Masters said it all.

He's on the money. MJO continues to mean business, the atmosphere is already building towards the state that likes El Nino, models keep the MJO in the Pacific and weaken when it leaves only to bring it back there. Now we just wait for the sub surface to up well off SA and feedback occurs. I had no idea there was activity around Fiji. That's influential to the SOI because cyclones and convection in that region between Fiji and Tahiti has a tendency to lower tahiti pressures.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop. The image tells it all,yikes!

[cycloneye]

The ESPI continues to rise in positive territory. (March 1 at +42)

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Ntxw]

The ESPI continues to rise in positive territory. (March 1 at +42)

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

30 day SOI is now in negative territory at -1, it's going to keep falling as we lose several more +20s

[cycloneye]

Spring barrier causes the models to not be too reliable. Here is the March 1 CFSv2 run that has El Nino cancel until October.

[CaliforniaResident]

Los Angeles has literally received more rain in the past 3 days than it has in all of 2013. Is that due to the budding El Nino?

[Ntxw]

Los Angeles has literally received more rain in the past 3 days than it has in all of 2013. Is that due to the budding El Nino?

Don't think so, there is no Nino. It's probably due to strong westerlies from the MJO.