2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right?

[tolakram]

We've strayed pretty far from indicators.

We know this is broken, but I think it's the normal line, so just picture this being closer to normal.

[Pelicane]

A lot can change in just a week. This was what the GFS from one week ago believed today would look like. The shear looked too high, the environment too dry, the season was dead. We all know how that's turning out.

[tolakram]

I moved a bunch of posts over to the slow start thread. PLEASE KEEP THIS AS INDICATORS ONLY. Off topic posts will be deleted. Thanks!

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we now have a true +AMO horseshoe look in the Atlantic based on the sst anomaly maps

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572388129176424449

[galaxy401]

Updating again to state that there is now: A Category 4 hurricane, a tropical storm, and three areas of interest by the NHC that are currently active. Prime season look for sure.

[Iceresistance]

I can't find a good spot to post it, but this is the perfect quinfecta.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/The-perfect-quinfecta.png

[Category5Kaiju]

I can't find a good spot to post it, but this is the perfect quinfecta.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/The-perfect-quinfecta.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/The-perfect-quinfecta.png

Assuming those AOIs eventually get named and October and November don’t see some weird basin wide shutdown like they did last year, then I really cannot see how we can’t end this season with at least 14-16 NSs. Maybe failed invests are a thing of the past now with this season

[Emmett_Brown]

I'd say we have a chance (slim chance) but a chance, of having 5 simultaneous active TCs in the coming days.

[St0rmTh0r]

as expected a hyper active end to september my 11 storm prediction this month not looking crazy

[skyline385]

Wow

 https://twitter.com/quintonlawton/status/1572958300324655113





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[Steve]

I can't find a good spot to post it, but this is the perfect quinfecta.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/The-perfect-quinfecta.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/The-perfect-quinfecta.png

Assuming those AOIs eventually get named and October and November don’t see some weird basin wide shutdown like they did last year, then I really cannot see how we can’t end this season with at least 14-16 NSs. Maybe failed invests are a thing of the past now with this season

I’ve been curious as to October and November. September went like it was indicating both at the peak and month end. But I seriously don’t have a feel for October at all. We have been talking about mostly slow progression of often diffuse waves since early summer. Plus the warm higher latitudes and other inhibitors. So outside of homegrown systems or coastal lows, there first has to be tropical waves. If so, more out to sea? Florida/Bahamas threats? I saw somebody posted Joe B the other day kind of saying 98L was endgame. I suppose to be fair that he could have meant the backing pattern of how this series of storms each came up further west since he was talking about that also. I think he’ll end up being wrong about Fiona which I still think is going to get caught and brought in so grain of salt.

But it seems hard to bet against no fall systems in a La Niña even if it’s 3rd year. OTOH Hammy seemed to indicate CFS being quiet. I only follow it through her interpretation but sometimes it gets the trends. It’s easier for me to predict when there’s a stronger MJO signal year unlike 2022.

[TallyTracker]

Wow

https://twitter.com/quintonlawton/status/1572958300324655113?s=46&t=eQooB92WVFdh4VCnvnSobw


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Flying over the SAL just got on my bucket list!

[Iceresistance]

So much for a 'Slow Season', now we have 4 Tropical Cyclones active at once!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573332860098191360

[weeniepatrol]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573332860098191360

it never fails

[869MB]

My treat for S2K for today! Enjoy your weekend guys

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs0xGH6g/CFS.gif

A slower loop to see it better.

Your wish is my command!

https://i.postimg.cc/mktQXkYB/CFS2-JPEG.gif

As illustrated above, in mid-July, the CFS had one system affecting the Canadian Maritimes followed by another system heading towards Florida from the southeast during this general time period in late September. Not bad…not bad at all.

[weeniepatrol]

A slower loop to see it better.

Your wish is my command!

https://i.postimg.cc/mktQXkYB/CFS2-JPEG.gif

As illustrated above, in mid-July, the CFS had one system affecting the Canadian Maritimes followed by another system heading towards Florida from the southeast during this general time period in late September. Not bad…not bad at all.

Yeah, I know s2k user Hammy has mentioned that it generally depicted a sharply backloaded with an onset delayed by a couple weeks relative to the climatological peak... very interesting indeed

[tolakram]

Second year in a row it's done well AND actually showed storms, not exact timing or track, but surprisingly informative IMO.