Long Range Models

[Mecklenburg]

darn... this may be quiet august...

[Category 5]

darn... this may be quiet august...

May I ask what's wrong with that?

[Scorpion]

darn... this may be quiet august...

May I ask what's wrong with that?

We're here to track hurricanes, of course we want an active season.

[Category 5]

darn... this may be quiet august...

May I ask what's wrong with that?

We're here to track hurricanes, of course we want an active season.

As long as they stay out at sea.

[ConvergenceZone]

darn... this may be quiet august...

May I ask what's wrong with that?

We're here to track hurricanes, of course we want an active season.

agreed!!! although some folks assume just because you want hurricanes to attract that it means that you want a hurricane to slam into the USA or elsewhere... which is absurd. I'm totally fine with them recurving... I enjoy recurving longtrackers..although didn't have the time to track Bertha

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show low pressures in the Eastern Atlantic moving west to westnorthwest in the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[A1A]

Hey nothing wrong with wanting a little Edouard to bring some rain to a very parched land! I am down to trying to save trees!

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS forecasts complete boredom in the entire basin through 7 days.

[blp]

I know this is fantasyland but Aug 22nd is getting closer to the peak.

00Z 384 (4 systems if you count the one in Africa, Talk about a train. That train runs from Africa to almost Florida)



Last few runs of the GFS have shown a lot of activity in the late range so we might have a quite active peak of the season.

[SouthFloridawx]

00z GFS forecasts complete boredom in the entire basin through 7 days.

I don't recall Edouard coming up on any of the forecast models. So you never know what may pop up.

[wxman22]

Seems like the tropical train may begin starting the weekend after next....lets watch for some consistency...
18z:
0z:

(0z goes along with the the 18z...)

[blp]

I agree, the GFS has been consistent for a few runs. I definetely think that at least one or two of those systems should develop. The way the african wave train has been this year I would say that the solution is not that far fetched.

[Meso]

Interesting, though you know the CMC.Has an area forming just off the East coast of Florida heading NE

[ronjon]

The GFS has been showing over the last several days of runs major ridging developing over the Atlantic and extending into the SE US. The jet stream is pushed way up into Canada. This would open the lane for any cape verde storms to march toward the US as the 00Z 384 hr GFS shows.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, I think the last half of August will become a busy time at NHC and with the impressive TW's that we've seen coming off Africa for June/July the month of September could be insane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting, though you know the CMC.Has an area forming just off the East coast of Florida heading NE

Wasn't really 'long range', starting this weekend, so I started this thread for the CMC 'storm'.

[Frank2]

The GFS loop shows a very pronounced trough in the western Atlantic over the next 10 days - especially towards the end of the run...

Frank

[wxman22]

The 6z:

[vacanechaser]

My humble interpretation:

There's that disturbance over the Cape Verde Islands moving westward. The water ahead of this is too cool for significant development, and there is also some dry Saharan air in it's general environment:

ok, i would like to ask where you get that from??? the water out ahead is too cool???? not sure what you are seeing there... considering this map shows it warmer than normal out off the african coast as well through the mdr..




and then for significant development?? lets remember that bertha formed and became a major hurricane over water temps that were just at or slightly over 80 degrees... the dry air and sal is not a big player... that is considerably less than the past 2 years... and like i said in another post, i dont know just how much is "sal" and not just dry air... it seems far enough south of that dry air... i am not saying it will develop, but i just see where the water temps come into play as being cooler...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

darn... this may be quiet august...

i doubt that to be the case... just because the models dont show muc today, does not mean that it may not change tomorrow... they change with the wind!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team