Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Exact landfall is pointless at this point. But what is very concerning is the continued idea of building ridging. It pushes it all the way into Kentucky! SE and Gulf need to be on alert for this one folks.

[Aric Dunn]

Georgia/South Carolina border....ridging continues to build and pushes it well inland.

yep. about 100 east of 6z. yet another consistent run with ridging holding but weakness left from trough...

[Blown Away]

Georgia/South Carolina border....ridging continues to build and pushes it well inland.

Yep, odds are when you see a model show Georgia landfall then gets pushed inland, the model usually is underestimating the ridge and that does not bode well for SFL.

[Vortex]

nice knowing ya savanah....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

[Vortex]

Exact landfall is pointless at this point. But what is very concerning is the continued idea of building ridging. It pushes it all the way into Kentucky! SE and Gulf need to be on alert for this one folks.

I think this is the "real deal" The continued trend and synoptics are whats alarming...

['CaneFreak]

Actually, synoptically this is one of the rare times I could actually see Charleston, SC or even Savannah, GA getting a pretty significant hit...I thought I would never live long enough to see a synoptic setup like this one...this is going to be interesting to say the very least...anyone from Biloxi east to Cape Hatteras should be watching this one very closely.

[Vortex]

You can bet NHC is taking notice and gearing up with full arsenal...

[Ivanhater]

Can't wait for the 18z run

[DESTRUCTION5]

nice knowing ya savanah....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

The amusing and impossible strike on savanna....Next runs FYE due at 530 Est..lol

[micktooth]

If the models are saying Georgia, throw them out (sarcasm)! From the Augusta Chronicle:

Georgia rarely gets hit by hurricanes: here’s why.
Rob Pavey | Wed, Sep. 1 9:58 AM | 6 comments

Hurricane Earl is whirling furiously in the mid-Atlantic - and everyone wonders if the east coast is vulnerable.

Forecasters say it could graze the coastline anywhere from Florida to New England, with North Carolina being the most likely place for a landfall. But if history is any guide, Georgia is safe from potential harm.

Why? Georgia's curved coastline makes it harder to attract a direct hit, and our state has fewer miles of coast than neighboring Florida or South Carolina, both of which have endured their share of Atlantic hurricanes.

In fact, Georgia hasn't taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in more than a century, and only four minor storms made landfall here during the 1900s.

Georgia's three worst hurricanes all occurred during the month of August and all made came ashore in the Savannah vicinity in 1881, 1893 and 1898, with the Augusta area's most catastrophic impacts occurring in the 1881 storm in which 700 people died, including some deaths in our town.

Hurricane Earl appears headed well to the north of our region, and most Atlantic storms make that northward turn well before reaching the U.S. coastline. That turn is so unpredictable that landfalls frequently occur farther north than forecasters initially anticipate.

Hurricane Hugo, for example, came ashore in 1989 and was first projected to clobber Jacksonville, then Savannah and later Hilton Head. Instead it traveled farther up the coast and pummeled Charleston.

Georgia's resilience from hurricane strikes, though, can also be viewed a different way. If our vulnerability were rated by the Las Vegas oddsmakers, they might say we are long overdue. For everyone's sake, I hope they would be wrong.



Here is some background on Georgia's Hurricane History:

- Aug. 27, 1881: A major hurricane hits the coast, killing 700 people.- Aug. 27-28, 1893: A major hurricane hits the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, killing 1,000 to 2,500 people and leaving 30,000 homeless.- Aug. 31, 1898: The last Category 3 hurricane to date to make landfall in Georgia strikes Savannah, with 179 deaths.- 1911: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 17 people.- 1940: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 50 people. - 1947: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing one person.- 1979: Category 2 Hurricane David hits Savannah, causing minor damage.
Source: Georgia Emergency Management Agency

[SFLcane]

You can bet NHC is taking notice and gearing up with full arsenal...

Actually spoke to stewart and he's not impressed at all and thinks genesis if any is many days head basically a dry wave. Again the way globals have been this year with genesis i would not put to much stock on these models until we have something developed.

[canes04]

Question is will this be Harvey or Irene?

[Vortex]

You can bet NHC is taking notice and gearing up with full arsenal...

Actually spoke to stewart and he's not impressed at all and thinks genesis if any is many days head basically a dry wave. Again the way globals have been this year with genesis i would not put to much stock on these models until we have something developed.

I bet JB doesnt know what to do with himself...In fact, he's probally tweeting at this very moment!!

[cycloneye]

Blown Away,your prediction of invest comming very soon may be turning to fruitition shortly after the TCPOD came out,apart from some convection building.

[Aric Dunn]

Can't wait for the 18z run

ahah I think you nailed it on the head for everyone here.. lol

[caneseddy]

Can't wait for the 18z run

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run to show nothing like it did yesterday and everyone pulling their hair out

[Vortex]

This afternoon's lineup

CMC 130
ECM by 3
GFS 18Z 530

Plan accordingly

[Aric Dunn]

Can't wait for the 18z run

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run to show nothing like it did yesterday and everyone pulling their hair out

what do you mean nothing ,.... it showed a system getting torn up over land... track synoptics are important not intensity.

[Vortex]

larrwx aka "the statistician" im sure is keeping tabs on the GFS hits and devising a formula as we speak as to who's next on the hit list...

[caneseddy]

Can't wait for the 18z run

I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro run to show nothing like it did yesterday and everyone pulling their hair out

what do you mean nothing ,.... it showed a system getting torn up over land... track synoptics are important not intensity.

I meant nothing as in a hurricane like the GFS and CMC have been showing...just a weak TC that ends up being torn up by Hispaniola