2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[Hurricaneman]

the MJO will be heading into a favorable phase by next week stay tuned for it may be the start of a very active period maybe up to 4 storms with maybe a hurricane or 2

[SFLcane]

Was also noticing that gatorcane. Personally the way the over all pattern is shaping up it looks threatening for the southeast.

[TheStormExpert]

What I would like to see is a comparison of the pattern at the current moment to this time of year in 2004.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

May 1 - June 19, 2004:



May 1 - June 19, 2013:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2013 is unique. I've been through the entire database (1948-present) and cannot find a year that resembles the pattern greatly. The amount of ridging across the North Atlantic and mid-latitudes is insane, and does not bode well at all for landmasses in the basin this season.

[Riptide]

CFS is more bullish in it's July forecast, calling for below normal pressures in the MDR and Southeast. Top chart is most recent forecast, bottom chart is the previous forecast.

[gatorcane]

Though the Altantic is very quiet now, I can't help but notice how the steering flow continues to feature a very deep East to West flow from south of about 30N from Africa all the way through the SE U.S including Florida and into the Gulf with nothing but wide expansive ridging spanning the entire subtropical Atlantic. Looping this wide-range Atlantic visible sat loop depicts this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

The question is whether this is an early indicator of the steering coming August and September, when the Cape Verde season kicks into full gear?

[Riptide]

2003 and to a lesser extent 2004 are turning out to be exceptional analogs for this hurricane season. As many remember, the main feature of these hurricane seasons were the long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes such as Isabel, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

[TheStormExpert]

2003 and to a lesser extent 2004 are turning out to be exceptional analogs for this hurricane season. As many remember, the main feature of these hurricane seasons were the long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes such as Isabel, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

In 2003 basically all of the big storms went out to sea/recurved despite Isabel and Claudette. Also there was a total of 5 tropical depressions that never made it to tropical storm status. So this season to me was kind of the complete opposite of 2004. Though Isabel could be a potential track analog for this season.

Also there was Fabian that unfortunately directly hit Bermuda. Which seems to be a rare occurrence to get a major storm to hit such a small island in the middle of the Atlantic.

[Riptide]

2003 and to a lesser extent 2004 are turning out to be exceptional analogs for this hurricane season. As many remember, the main feature of these hurricane seasons were the long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes such as Isabel, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

In 2003 basically all of the big storms went out to sea/recurved despite Isabel and Claudette. Also there was a total of 5 tropical depressions that never made it to tropical storm status. So this season to me was kind of the complete opposite of 2004. Though Isabel could be a potential track analog for this season.

Also there was Fabian that unfortunately directly hit Bermuda. Which seems to be a rare occurrence to get a major storm to hit such a small island in the middle of the Atlantic.

2003 is similar in that it featured a persistent mid-latitude high pressure system that expanded across the entire Atlantic, but with intermittent breaks that allowed Hurricane Fabian to hit Bermuda. The main question here is how expansive and long-lasting will the sub-tropical high pressure become and how will it evolve into July, August, September.

We are still in a -PDO/+AMO era, which favors increased activity and East Coast landfalls.

[Hurricaneman]

The ENSO is very similar to 2003, but the MJO , pressure and shear pattern is closer to 2004 so who knows whats going to happen so maybe a hybrid of the 2 where its an early start, but August and september have problems especially from North Carolina to New Orleans

[Alyono]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

[Ntxw]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

I made a post some time ago on a Klotzbach paper linking the MJO to the Atlantic basin. And you are correct it is least effective when it arrives in the Atlantic itself. It's often weaker and the systems that form in the EPAC tends to provide shear and other factors after moving through phases 6-7-8. However the paper and data insists that once the MJO arrives in Africa and especially Indian Ocean there is a significant spike in Atlantic storms including both hurricane and major hurricane formation (phases 1-3 emphasis on 1 and 2).

Link to the paper http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... ch2010.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

I made a post some time ago on a Klotzbach paper linking the MJO to the Atlantic basin. And you are correct it is least effective when it arrives in the Atlantic itself. It's often weaker and the systems that form in the EPAC tends to provide shear and other factors after moving through phases 6-7-8. However the paper and data insists that once the MJO arrives in Africa and especially Indian Ocean there is a significant spike in Atlantic storms including both hurricane and major hurricane formation (phases 1-3 emphasis on 1 and 2).

Link to the paper http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... ch2010.pdf

If the euro is right with the MJO, we should be heading to phase 1 by July 2nd phase 2 by July 5th, the GFS doesn't get it to phase 2 but does get to phase 1 by July 2nd just like the Euro so there may be a spike if the Euro is right but if the GFS is right the active period could be reduced if what is said in the Klotzbach paper is right

[wxman57]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

See "Maloney and Hartman 2000a". They found that 15 days after the MJO reached the East Pacific there was a significant increase in TC development in the Gulf and Caribbean. The mechanism isn't entirely understood, but there appears to be a strong correlation. I discuss it a bit on my MJO page (see figure 3 there):

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mjo/

[Alyono]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

See "Maloney and Hartman 2000a". They found that 15 days after the MJO reached the East Pacific there was a significant increase in TC development in the Gulf and Caribbean. The mechanism isn't entirely understood, but there appears to be a strong correlation. I discuss it a bit on my MJO page (see figure 3 there):

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mjo/

does it extend to the tropical atlantic, east of islands?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

as I said in the models thread, what research is there linking the MJO to the tropical Atlantic? There is some linking it to the Caribbean and Gulf (though the impact is much less than for the WPAC), but I've seen none for the tropical Atlantic

Kelvin waves on the other hand, do have an impact for the Atlantic

See "Maloney and Hartman 2000a". They found that 15 days after the MJO reached the East Pacific there was a significant increase in TC development in the Gulf and Caribbean. The mechanism isn't entirely understood, but there appears to be a strong correlation. I discuss it a bit on my MJO page (see figure 3 there):

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/mjo/

does it extend to the tropical atlantic, east of islands?

No. Maloney and Hartman's publication focused specifically on the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

[gatorcane]

Image of SAL (Saharan Air Layer, orange color in the image) also showing a rather active ITCZ for late June over Africa:

[cycloneye]

A tweet by Levi Cowan about the Azores High's position and how that may spell trouble down the road.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 45m
With Azores High so far north and yet so strong, vorticity generation south of trade wind belt may make AEWs formidable in coming weeks.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[gatorcane]

Another look at the vigorous activity over Africa and the ITCZ tonight. Looking rather good for late June..a sign of things to come for the Cape Verde season?