2015 Global model runs discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Way too close for comfort for NC on this run, we'll have to watch this closely and see if the GFS decides to get on board.

[gatorcane]

192 hours intensifying but moving away from the U.S.. Nova Scotia could be in the path. Quite a hurricane on this run. Big difference from 00Z as it is much stronger. The GFS has a completely different solution (no development).

[Hammy]

Euro has been trending stronger over the last several consecutive runs with less track shift than we were seeing a few days ago--could this be an indication that it may have a solid handle on whatever's going to happen?

Edit: Five of the last six runs have shown a tropical storm in the general vacinity of eastern North Carolina around Jul31/Aug 1, and four have been fairly strong (including three of the last four.) Development is now pushed to ~120 hours, so we should start seeing mention by NHC within the next day if the trend continues. (This also once again seems to follow the models trend of dropping systems showing up at ten days, and then they show up again within 120 hours)

[Steve H.]

Looks like the surf could be up at the Hampton's this next week Still a ways away. Let's look for development first!

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has what looks like a hurricane passing about 150 miles east of Hatteras next Friday. It stays well off the East U.S. Coast but impacts Nova Scotia next weekend. Given the continued model support, favorable environment, and stationary front offshore there, I'd say it's a perfect setup for "Danny". I'm going with development chances 80% (at least). Too early to determine if there will be any significant impacts to the Carolina coasts. Euro says "no" for now, but it's 5-7 days away from any impact.

[OuterBanker]

Questioning the GFS. The latest GFS model is still showing no signs of what the Euro models have. If the Euro model does come to fruition than doubts about the new improved GFS should raise serious concerns. It still doesn’t seem to handle close in development which I feel is a rather important aspect of any model. The Euro nailed Arthur last year, I won’t even mention how abysmal the GFS was on early signs of Sandy. Like I’ve said before, instead of spending large sums of dollars maybe we should have invested Euros.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The trend here is worrying as each day the Euro has this theoretical system inching ever closer to land and stronger, whereas it was missing all land areas by a good margin and was depicted as weaker a couple of days ago.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The trend here is worrying as each day the Euro has this theoretical system inching ever closer to land and stronger, whereas it was missing all land areas by a good margin and was depicted as weaker a couple of days ago.

I am worried as well by the trends. Anyone know the time the GFS comes out?

[gatorcane]

time to pull the trigger on a new thread for "Possible Development off the SE US Coast?" We seem to have an incipient area now developing East of Florida...

I can't see how the NHC can not mention something in the next outlook given the bullish Euro which is back to showing development within 5 days.

[northjaxpro]

Maybe. You can start that thread gatorcane, but I still am in the NE GOM camp first for development, which the CMC is showing.

However, any development would move NE and consolidate off the Southeast U.S. coast, so with the model support being very consistent with EURO, run the thread. GFS not really on board yet with EURO about this however.

[Hammy]

:uarrow:

Maybe. You can start that thread gatorcane, but I still am in the NE GOM camp first for development, which the CMC is showing.

However, any development would move NE and consolidate off the Southeast U.S. coast, so with the model support being very consistent, run the thread. GFS not really on board yet with EURO about this however.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the CMC given it's habit of either forming 5-6 lows from one system, or blowing single thunderstorms up into major hurricanes.

GFS has performed extremely poorly since the upgrade, possibly worse than before as it has failed to develop the last three storms into anything more than depressions prior to the -48 mark. Euro seems to be forming this system out of the NC low, which looks like it'll drift southwest for a few days until upper winds improve (and it's been the most consistent of all the models over the last few days.)

[northjaxpro]

I get what you are saying Hammy. However, CMC is showing a modest 1007 mb Low in the NE GOM in the next 5 days or so, which I think in this particular situation, is still a plausible scenario. When the front stalls out across the NE GOM by Sunday, shear levels in the GOM by that time will relax and there may be secondary Low development in that region prior to crossing the Florida Peninsula next week.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro track and Hr.192 intensity of possible Danny.

Talk about too close the the NC OBX for comfort! That left hook too is concerning since it indicates a ridge trying to build and push it more west.

[Hammy]

I get what you are saying Hammy. However, CMC is showing a modest 1007 mb Low in the NE GOM in the next 5 days or so, which I think in this particular situation, is still a plausible scenario. When the front stalls out across the NE GOM by Sunday, shear levels in the GOM by that time will relax and there may be secondary Low development in that region prior to crossing the Florida Peninsula next week.

It's entirely possible that the CMC could actually be on to something as the euro is showing a low developing out about 7-8 days and moving up the east coast behind the first system, but I think the CMC's timing could be a bit fast and may be merging these two systems into one on the runs.



both show something off of Florida around ~120 hours



similarly, both show something over the SE in 216 hours



I think there is some feedback going on though with the Canadian model, where it is forming too many low pressure systems, failing to strengthen the Atlantic system because of this, and swinging it around into the Gulf, where the EC forms the low over land and develops it off of the Mid-Atlantic a few days later. Given the somewhat low 10-day accuracy (especially with weaker systems) it's very possible we end up getting both, but the CMC I don't think is handling the eastern one particularly well at the moment.

Edit: latest NAM develops a low in about three days near the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

NAM is further south and faster with a weak low just north of the Bahamas and just off the East Coast of Florida. The low ends up moving slowly north.

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: NAM is further south and faster with a weak low just north of the Bahamas and just off the East Coast of Florida. The low ends up moving slowly north.

i was told Nam not good for tropical forecast

[xcool22]

not going happen imo

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope the NAM is somewhat right. My grass is brown. Been real dry where I live but other parts of S. FL. been getting some much needed rain.

[NCSTORMMAN]

not going happen imo

Care to elaborate? What makes you feel that way?

[xcool22]

gfs show no developing