Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[boca]

Aren't we in a suppressed phase right now in the Atlantic or does that start around July 15th

[abajan]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take on things. Interesting, to say the least.

[LarryWx]

Does the Euro not showing any development have something to do with its MJO/CCKW forecast, putting the Atlantic under suppressed phase over the next several days? Looks like Euro versus everyone else.

I think this may be the reason why the Euro (EPS) is not developing it while the ukmet & GFS (GEFS) are. Consider how different are the EPS and GEFS MJO forecasts right now. There are often differences but this case is larger than normal I think. The EPS usually ends up verifying more closely to reality though it will often end up somewhere in between when there are large differences. The GEFS has it staying inside the circle in phase 2 (nearly stationary) before eventually doing an unusual backtrack (clockwise rotation on the graph) toward phase 1. OTOH, the EPS has it rotating in the common counterclockwise direction into phase 3 very quickly followed by phases 4 & 5. The Ukmet, which goes out only 6 days, is in agreement with the GFS in leaving it nearly stationary for those 6 days. Fwiw, the JMA is similar to the GEFS/UKMET.

So, maybe this is the main reason why the Euro is out on its own right now with nondevelopment. Is it more likely to bust badly in this case or is it more likely to win this time? This is a tough one but the GEFS having the Ukmet in its camp for development as well as the MJO over the next 6 days at least makes me leery about going with the Euro despite it often doing best with the MJO.

[cycloneye]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take on things. Interesting, to say the least.

Great video as he explains in a easy way to understand.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Parallel had notjing. Expecting the same from.the OP Euro @ 12z.

[NDG]

12z GFS is still is very persistent on this TW to start developing by this Wednesday, 3 runs in a row now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z GFS is still is very persistent on this TW to start developing by this Wednesday, 3 runs in a row now.

Yes, a little weaker, but still there. Interested to see if the signal on the GEFS stays the same.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS going with development yet again. Timeframe coming in.

[NDG]

12z GFS is still is very persistent on this TW to start developing by this Wednesday, 3 runs in a row now.

Yes, a little weaker, but still there. Interested to see if the signal on the GEFS stays the same.

I do notice that it seems like when it forecasts it to track a little faster it shows a weaker system, like is doing in this run, a little faster than last couple of runs thus a little weaker than 2 previous runs.

[gatorcane]

TS into Lesser Antilles. This is only 5 days from now:

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS wants to blow it up in the Eastern Caribbean

Big trough along the Eastern seaboard of US and Western Atlantic

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Canadian through 114hrs drops it. Gfs stands alone now


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[gatorcane]

GFS simulated IR one week from now. Has it heading WNW-NW

[Siker]

UKMET has also dropped it again.

[RL3AO]

Another hit on Haiti this run. Let's hope the GFS continues to be wrong.

[NDG]

The CMC has dropped development, or at least on how fast it could develop.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS by itself again. It sounds familiar. I wonder if we have a recent example of...... Wait TD4

[gatorcane]

Heading NW toward Haiti at hour 192. Trough along Eastern Seaboard of US:

[SFLcane]

Bet GFS drops this completely next few runs or big coupe

[SFLcane]

Recurving here nw Florida might need to watch for close shave. But plenty of landmass