Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro is doubling down as it has an even stronger vort east of the Bahamas than even the 12 z run

What's the end look like, destination wise?

Well it has a TS move through the central Florida peninsula and a second landfall of a 70mph tropical storm near Pensacola

[Hurricaneman]

This may still be a problem for the peninsula too if it were to develop faster than even the Euro does and possibly real big problem in the eastern or central GOM

[otowntiger]

192 hours, the Euro makes it a Panhandle problem.

But not much of one, lol. A weak TS or TD it looks there.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/G5MXOUk
rain maybe a big factor if the model verify s. Sweeps in from the alt and cross's over Florida.


https://imgur.com/7TJcuGh

[GCANE]

Improving LL Vort as it passes the islands.
Still in a ton of shear.
Light convection firing from the shear.

[jlauderdal]

gfs still seeing nada and maybe its right, as usual will lean towards the euro but cant discount the gfs entirely...TD max for the east side of the peninsula and TS max for the gulf area seems reasonable at this point...not a situation where this thing is going to sit in the bahamas brewing, easterly flow is robust

[cycloneye]

Morning discussion from the San Juan NWS. Rainy next couple of days here.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

This second part of the workweek looks to be an active one with
numerous showers and persistent thunderstorms across the local
islands, especially Puerto Rico. The most active period appear to be
most of Thursday through the mid afternoon hours of Friday, but
today looks rather active as well.

Moisture and instability will gradually increase today across the
local area ahead of a tropical wave that is expected for tonight
into Thursday. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase today as the day progresses, affecting many parts of the
forecast area, but particularly Puerto Rico. An upper trough,
gradually becoming more conducive to thunderstorm support will help
in the persistent thunderstorm development today and through Friday.
We have the necessary ingredients for enough activity to cause at
the very least some urban and small stream flooding across many
parts of Puerto Rico, but river flooding will not be ruled out, and
it is actually quite possible for more significant flooding to occur
on Thursday and Friday since many of the soils may be saturated and
the additional rain will become runoff right away.

The latest high resolution guidance suggests that the deep moisture
moving in with the tropical wave will combine with the upper level
dynamics and the local effects to cause thunderstorms with heavy
rain.

[Ian2401]

Convection at least looks a little bit better this AM. Poor thing is still being sheared to absolute death.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has it again going to Texas a little bit more defined.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro a good bit weaker than yesterday’s 12z run. Has barely a TS into the northern Gulf Coast.

[TheStormExpert]

gfs still seeing nada and maybe its right, as usual will lean towards the euro but cant discount the gfs entirely...TD max for the east side of the peninsula and TS max for the gulf area seems reasonable at this point...not a situation where this thing is going to sit in the bahamas brewing, easterly flow is robust

Be aware the Euro has been the best this season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z Euro a good bit weaker than yesterday’s 12z run. Has barely a TS into the northern Gulf Coast.

Looks to me only because it has less time over water as opposed to the 12z run.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N57W to
07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 13N-20N
between 54W-64W, over the Leeward Islands.

[wxGuy]

Beginning to show similar setups like it did for Rita and Katrina, before the waves made it to the gulf the models had them hitting Florida and possibly re-curving but continued to push through and hit Texas and Louisiana. History likes to repeat itself. well see

[1900hurricane]

I think calling it a strong tropical wave is a bit of a stretch. This ASCAT pass isn't super recent, but it shows the wave is rather low amplitude. It needs to do quite a bit of sharpening up before any development can begin. It's certainly closer to background easterlies than a tropical cyclone right now.

[stormlover2013]

going to depend where the low forms, if it forms closer to the Straits it will be more towards texas, if it forms more north south florida it will be weak and more SE la

[jasons2k]

192 hours, the Euro makes it a Panhandle problem.

But not much of one, lol. A weak TS or TD it looks there.

Be careful to downplay a weak TS as “not much” of a problem. Allison was a weak TS and one of the costliest storms in history, and her name was retired.

Most deaths from tropical cyclones are the result of inland flooding.

[stormlover2013]

anybody got any Ensembles?

[TheStormExpert]

Beginning to show similar setups like it did for Rita and Katrina, before the waves made it to the gulf the models had them hitting Florida and possibly re-curving but continued to push through and hit Texas and Louisiana. History likes to repeat itself. well see

Dude, you’ve been constantly trying to compare this wave to Katrina or Rita. Something like those storms COULD happen but chances are slim to none at the moment.

[TheStormExpert]

anybody got any Ensembles?

Here are the 00z EPS Ensembles which are more bullish than the operational run.