Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[bob rulz]

I know AccuWeather is not really an expert but they’re just revised their 2020 forecast. They expect four more major hurricanes will develop, along with two more direct land impacts.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1306959888044773379

That's comical. If anyone is interested, I can give them the name of the 2019 Super Bowl Winning team too. Gotta love these late season "oops, let's pad our forecast number prediction". I'll bet they tweak it again on November 20th LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

[TheStormExpert]

That's comical. If anyone is interested, I can give them the name of the 2019 Super Bowl Winning team too. Gotta love these late season "oops, let's pad our forecast number prediction". I'll bet they tweak it again on November 20th LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

I meant four more majors on top of the two which would bring the total to six. AccuWeather has that in their forecast, that seems like a stretch to me considering we can only get one major a month, one in August, and one in September.

[aspen]

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

I meant four more majors on top of the two which would bring the total to six. AccuWeather has that in their forecast, that seems like a stretch to me considering we can only get one major a month, one in August, and one in September.

I won’t exclude the potential for another major this month. Maybe something will bomb out very close to the end of September like Matthew did in 2016. Also, if development hotspots shift from the MDR to the Caribbean, we could see multiple majors in October, especially since the ridiculously high OHC there would make the region far less susceptible to becoming completely upwelled and unable to support intense hurricanes.

There’s also a slim chance Sally could be upgraded to a Cat 3 in post-season analysis and bump up the season’s MH total.

[ClarCari]

We’ve had 2 and arguably 3 major hurricanes so far and there is still 11 whole days left in September with god knows how much October and even November can bring, I say we are on track very much with forecasts so far. ACE this past week has DOUBLED and been catching up with the hyperactive forecasts and has never been average this whole season.

We’ve already had 7-8 hurricanes (I’m curious if Nana might get a downgrade, we’ll see) which is pretty active.
None of the forecasts are busting to me it looks like, it’s just now the Atlantic is catching up when some people were expecting activity to be evenly spread out like 2005.

[edu2703]

That's comical. If anyone is interested, I can give them the name of the 2019 Super Bowl Winning team too. Gotta love these late season "oops, let's pad our forecast number prediction". I'll bet they tweak it again on November 20th LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

[TheStormExpert]

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

I meant four more majors on top of the two which would bring the total to six. AccuWeather has that in their forecast, that seems like a stretch to me considering we can only get one major a month, one in August, and one in September.

I won’t exclude the potential for another major this month. Maybe something will bomb out very close to the end of September like Matthew did in 2016. Also, if development hotspots shift from the MDR to the Caribbean, we could see multiple majors in October, especially since the ridiculously high OHC there would make the region far less susceptible to becoming completely upwelled and unable to support intense hurricanes.

There’s also a slim chance Sally could be upgraded to a Cat 3 in post-season analysis and bump up the season’s MH total.

After Teddy and Beta nothing looks to be form for at least the next week. So a late-September lull looks to be in the cards before we see something likely form in the Western Caribbean in early October, whether that can become a major is yet to be seen. But I’m currently going with no more than two more majors one in October and another potentially in November. This seasons been able to produce storms just not a record high number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.

[CyclonicFury]

Yeah I doubt we see four more major hurricanes. 1-2 seems more reasonable, especially considering Beta can’t even become a hurricane.

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

[ClarCari]

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

[TheStormExpert]

4 major hurricanes is definitely not out of the realm of possibility with the end of September and October still to go. October tends to produce the big Caribbean monsters, and they can even happen in November. Do you want to rule out that happening this year?

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

2017 wrapped up on November 9th, 1995 on November 1st. I don’t even know why they call themselves AccuWeather as they’re usually NEVER accurate!

[CyclonicFury]

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

I disagree with calling 2017 an "unfavorable year." The MDR was very favorable that year, and actually produced 3 TCs before August. 2017 was just a peak-centered season similar to 2004. 2017 did die down quickly in mid-October though which was somewhat unusual for a La Niña.

[TheStormExpert]

4 more major hurricanes is a forecast closer to -removed- than reality. We have only had two major so far. For there to be 4 more until the end of this season, the environmental conditions in the Atlantic must be better than everything we've had so far. High SST, non-existing shear and no dry air.

To say that this will happen until the end of the season is basically guessing. Curious to know what data Accuweather used to make this forecast. I would be surprised if we had more than 2 majors.

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

Oh conditions have been favorable I’m not doubting that, just not favorable enough for the record number of hurricanes and major hurricanes like we saw in 2005. Many storms have struggled at some point in their life due to shear and dry air.

[TheStormExpert]

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

I disagree with calling 2017 an "unfavorable year." The MDR was very favorable that year, and actually produced 3 TCs before August. 2017 was just a peak-centered season similar to 2004. 2017 did die down quickly in mid-October though which was somewhat unusual for a La Niña.

2017 ended unexpectedly in my opinion. Not to mention most were expecting a monster hurricane to form that October in the Western Caribbean due to the La Niña and all we saw was Cat.1 Nate and short-lived Philippe. But 2018 made up for that to some extent with Michael.

[ClarCari]

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

Oh conditions have been favorable I’m not doubting that, just not favorable enough for the record number of hurricanes and major hurricanes like we saw in 2005. Many storms have struggled at some point in their life due to shear and dry air.

But what if 2005 produced 35 named storms with the same number of hurricanes and majors, just more normal tropical storms? Would that change the perspective?
Major hurricanes aren’t supposed to come from every hurricane that forms and trust me 7 majors out of 28 named storms is actually average since in an average season 1/4 of named storms become majors, which 7/28 is 1/4. The 4 Cat.5s is anomalous.
It’s just an apple and oranges comparison that gets lost it seems when comparing seasons.
I don’t like when some people compare 2005 to 2020 as if 2005 holds every single record of any hurricane season when 2005 did some things less impressive than other seasons (ex. no Cat.5 landfalls despite there being a whopping 4 of them).

[al78]

They also said they expect storms forming into December. That happened in 2005, but it is rare to see activity continue that long. Not all hyperactive seasons end late, 1995 and 2017 wrapped up in early November. Not even 2005 had 4 majors after this date.

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

I disagree with calling 2017 an "unfavorable year." The MDR was very favorable that year, and actually produced 3 TCs before August. 2017 was just a peak-centered season similar to 2004. 2017 did die down quickly in mid-October though which was somewhat unusual for a La Niña.

2017 was a somewhat unusual year in that five of the season's months were average in terms of ACE and it was the hyperactive September which really ramped the ACE up.

I'm not sure I agree that 2020 has had favourable conditions all year. If it had, we'd have had more hurricanes instead of a load of stunted tropical storms and we'd have an ACE index near or at the hyperactive threshold by now. Conditions have been favourable for genesis but not intensification. There have been a couple of things (dry air and MDR TUTT) that have held it back. We'll get an idea of the likelihood of an active October when we see how the current invest in the Caribbean Sea develops. If it turns out to be yet another 50-55kt tropical storm that gets sheared to death I'll be skeptical of a hyperactive October to come.

[TheStormExpert]

Those are terrible comparisons as 1995 was more active in the first half of the year, and August was more active than September that year even.
2017 was actually an unfavorable year that only became active due to a lucky September setup that died as soon as it was born.

2020 has had favorable conditions all flipping year that hasn’t stopped. And I bet it won’t stop in October as it really has just gotten started.

I disagree with calling 2017 an "unfavorable year." The MDR was very favorable that year, and actually produced 3 TCs before August. 2017 was just a peak-centered season similar to 2004. 2017 did die down quickly in mid-October though which was somewhat unusual for a La Niña.

2017 was a somewhat unusual year in that five of the season's months were average in terms of ACE and it was the hyperactive September which really ramped the ACE up.

I'm not sure I agree that 2020 has had favourable conditions all year. If it had, we'd have had more hurricanes instead of a load of stunted tropical storms and we'd have an ACE index near or at the hyperactive threshold by now. Conditions have been favourable for genesis but not intensification. There have been a couple of things (dry air and MDR TUTT) that have held it back. We'll get an idea of the likelihood of an active October when we see how the current invest in the Caribbean Sea develops. If it turns out to be yet another 50-55kt tropical storm that gets sheared to death I'll be skeptical of a hyperactive October to come.

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

[ElectricStorm]

I disagree with calling 2017 an "unfavorable year." The MDR was very favorable that year, and actually produced 3 TCs before August. 2017 was just a peak-centered season similar to 2004. 2017 did die down quickly in mid-October though which was somewhat unusual for a La Niña.

2017 was a somewhat unusual year in that five of the season's months were average in terms of ACE and it was the hyperactive September which really ramped the ACE up.

I'm not sure I agree that 2020 has had favourable conditions all year. If it had, we'd have had more hurricanes instead of a load of stunted tropical storms and we'd have an ACE index near or at the hyperactive threshold by now. Conditions have been favourable for genesis but not intensification. There have been a couple of things (dry air and MDR TUTT) that have held it back. We'll get an idea of the likelihood of an active October when we see how the current invest in the Caribbean Sea develops. If it turns out to be yet another 50-55kt tropical storm that gets sheared to death I'll be skeptical of a hyperactive October to come.

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Kinda goes to show how even having an extremely favorable background state doesn't guarantee a ton of majors, everything has to go right for that to happen... Laura and Teddy are examples of a few that found those pockets where everything was ripe for them to explode. Everything else has just spun up, then spun quickly back down for the most part... Except Paulette who may still be out there in 2030

[TheStormExpert]

2017 was a somewhat unusual year in that five of the season's months were average in terms of ACE and it was the hyperactive September which really ramped the ACE up.

I'm not sure I agree that 2020 has had favourable conditions all year. If it had, we'd have had more hurricanes instead of a load of stunted tropical storms and we'd have an ACE index near or at the hyperactive threshold by now. Conditions have been favourable for genesis but not intensification. There have been a couple of things (dry air and MDR TUTT) that have held it back. We'll get an idea of the likelihood of an active October when we see how the current invest in the Caribbean Sea develops. If it turns out to be yet another 50-55kt tropical storm that gets sheared to death I'll be skeptical of a hyperactive October to come.

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Kinda goes to show how even having an extremely favorable background state doesn't guarantee a ton of majors, everything has to go right for that to happen... Laura and Teddy are examples of a few that found those pockets where everything was ripe for them to explode. Everything else has just spun up, then spun quickly back down for the most part... Except Paulette who may still be out there in 2030

For a storm who seems to want to hang on forever as a ghost it too had a decent shot at major status if it wasn’t for that pesky smoke from the California wildfires.

In my opinion this season wasn’t too bad. At least compared to what it was forecasted to be in early August. I mean we had Laura but even she struck a rural area of SW Louisiana. And Sally was eventful but only a mid-grade Cat.2.

[ElectricStorm]

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Kinda goes to show how even having an extremely favorable background state doesn't guarantee a ton of majors, everything has to go right for that to happen... Laura and Teddy are examples of a few that found those pockets where everything was ripe for them to explode. Everything else has just spun up, then spun quickly back down for the most part... Except Paulette who may still be out there in 2030

For a storm who seems to want to hang on forever as a ghost it too had a decent shot at major status if it wasn’t for that pesky smoke from the California wildfires.

In my opinion this season wasn’t too bad. At least compared to what it was forecasted to be in early August. I mean we had Laura but even she struck a rural area of SW Louisiana. And Sally was eventful but only a mid-grade Cat.2.

Yeah we very easily could be at 4 majors right now. So even though it has mostly been quantity over quality overall, we've definitely had quality storms this year

[FireRat]

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Can you imagine if October and November made up for the expected majors and ACE lmao! Hmmm, if you think this season is like 2012 on steroids, then I wonder if the centerpiece storm of the season will come in Late October, like Sandy did that year.


Food for thought, gonna be an interesting month and possibly early November too IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

Took the words out of my mouth. This favorable has been favorable for TCG but not much intensification outside of the small handful such as Laura, Teddy, and a few others.

I said last month how this season reminds me a lot of 2012 on steroids in a sense as it too saw a high quantity of named storms, 10 hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 133. So far we’re sitting at around 105 ACE units.

Can you imagine if October and November made up for the expected majors and ACE lmao! Hmmm, if you think this season is like 2012 on steroids, then I wonder if the centerpiece storm of the season will come in Late October, like Sandy did that year.


Food for thought, gonna be an interesting month and possibly early November too IMO.

I don’t see that happening though.