2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

The back to back landfalling hurricanes modeled by the globals especially GFS remind me of 1996 in particular. Overall SST configuration favors multiple Mexico landfalls this year followed by an El Nino next year.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS back to a hurricane offshore.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro and CMC in 7-10 also have a strong signal for another system to potentially become a hurricane in the east EPAC:

00z Euro:


00z CMC:


Even though the Euro and CMC do not show hurricane pressures, they often underestimate intensity and can be extrapolated.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows a hurricane that peaks south of Guerrero before weakening due to land interaction ala a Beatriz 11.



12z CMC has a slow moving hurricane that meanders offshore.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro also continues to show it, but has been hinting on a broad system.


I think the NHC will circle it on Monday.

[Yellow Evan]

As shown by the CFS earlier this year, the -PDO may be starting to weaken.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/855551824932503582/Screen_Shot_2021-06-18_at_4.57.25_PM.png[url]

As shown by the CFS earlier this year, the -PDO may be starting to weaken.

This -PDO weakening is also visible on CDAS and OISST. Interesting developments considering it's June. This proceeds the natural summer time SST warming, which I think really takes off in July and peaks by October. So we could see the PDO warm further.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS008, EP, E, , , , , 78, 2021, DB, O, 2021061818, 9999999999, , 008, , , , GENESIS, , EP782021

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS showing a hurricane that peaks west of Soccoro Island. Somewhat of a long tracker.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406212287124279303




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1406219096295870464




After a busy June, wouldn’t rule out a historically inactive July.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406212287124279303?s=21

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1406219096295870464?s=21

After a busy June, wouldn’t rule out a historically inactive July.

Wouldn’t the mass subsidence over the IO also mean an inactive Atlantic depending on how long it lasts?

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406212287124279303?s=21

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1406219096295870464?s=21

After a busy June, wouldn’t rule out a historically inactive July.

Wouldn’t the mass subsidence over the IO also mean an inactive Atlantic depending on how long it lasts?

To a certain extent yes but there’s also somewhat of an ASW pattern evident.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS further east and weaker.



0z ECMWF just south of Michoacan.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings a hurricane into Guerrero.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406212287124279303?s=21

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1406219096295870464?s=21

After a busy June, wouldn’t rule out a historically inactive July.

Wouldn’t the mass subsidence over the IO also mean an inactive Atlantic depending on how long it lasts?

For now it means a 2020 repeat is unlikely. The ASW and a slow EPAC hurricane season can still allow the Atlantic to have an active season though.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1406212287124279303?s=21

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1406219096295870464?s=21

After a busy June, wouldn’t rule out a historically inactive July.

Wouldn’t the mass subsidence over the IO also mean an inactive Atlantic depending on how long it lasts?

For now it means a 2020 repeat is unlikely. The ASW and a slow EPAC hurricane season can still allow the Atlantic to have an active season though.

I thought that the African Standing Wave and the rising motion over Africa/the IO were one of the same.

[Kingarabian]

Wouldn’t the mass subsidence over the IO also mean an inactive Atlantic depending on how long it lasts?

For now it means a 2020 repeat is unlikely. The ASW and a slow EPAC hurricane season can still allow the Atlantic to have an active season though.

I thought that the African Standing Wave and the rising motion over Africa/the IO were one of the same.

They can be connected in La Nina years, but in non La Nina years it's usually predominately over and around Africa. 2020 for example had a dominant ASW that slowly transitioned to the IO and then the MC.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1331716905326030853

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS stronger and moving the timeframe up.

[cycloneye]

The 00z Euro.

[aspen]

I wonder how long it’ll take for the EPac to produce its first operational hurricane. Dolores could get upgraded in post-season analysis, but since it wasn’t an operational hurricane, it won’t count for now.