TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

No its been updated already. It could be your browswer just wait another few minutes. Basically the 00Z GFDL takes it WNW then NW away from the Bahamas. It no longer has this W turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

Like I said, that is the 18z GFDL. The GFDL comes out a few hours after runtime. The 00z GFDL has not been run yet.

lol yeah it has. you are probably looking at the wrong website. Look at the one I provided for you and scroll down to TD10 and you will see the 00Z run. Im using Netscape browser which is probably why I can see it before yours. Just wait a while and it will be there. Im looking at it right now.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[gatorcane]

All those models are wrong because the system is heading W now and they show a WNW movement already....I also don't like the models until we actually have a storm which we don't yet.

About Andrew, that is not a once in a lifetime experience so don't be complacent about it. S FL was battered by major hurricanes from the E especially 1930s and 1940s...1926 Great Miami Hurricane? How about the 1947 Okeechobie storm? Then there is the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 the list goes on....

However S. Florida sees more hits from the GOM or Caribbean.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I like the Bamm/Bamd models reason is this system has been left of everything so far.

[NorthGaWeather]

Ignore the left outliers. They have proven incorrect with Irene. Slow means recurve.

But on the other hand TD10 is south and tracking towards the islands...

So just because they proved incorrect with Irene, which was a different storm and had a different pattern, they will be incorrect with remnant TD 10? Great line of thinking.

[Ivanhater]

yes, the models are wrong already...its not moving wnw

[Sanibel]

Could be a 2005 recurve tendency. Maybe, maybe not...

[Weatherboy1]

The longer-term forecast discussion from the HPC seems to suggest a front will make it all the way down into Georgia by later in the period (5-7 days out). Their maps also show a low hanging around a few hundred miles to the E of FL, and I'm guessing if 10 gets that far north, it will just be swept up and out to sea (that's probably why the GFDL shows a right hook late in the forecast period). Of course, it all depends how far north 10 is in 5 days. At this point, a hook to the N far enough off the coast of FL looks reasonable to me ... but it's not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination this far out.

-Mike

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

That "L" out in the Atlantic several hundred miles east of, say, Melbourne, FL is 10.

[deltadog03]

from living in the south for many many years...summer fronts hardly ever make it to GA

[NorthGaWeather]

from living in the south for many many years...summer fronts hardly ever make it to GA

Thats the truth.

[Thunder44]

check out tonights 00Z run for the GFDL for TD10. Takes it north away from FL. THoughts?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thats the 18z GFDL.

No its been updated already. It could be your browswer just wait another few minutes. Basically the 00Z GFDL takes it WNW then NW away from the Bahamas. It no longer has this W turn towards FL.

<RICKY>

Like I said, that is the 18z GFDL. The GFDL comes out a few hours after runtime. The 00z GFDL has not been run yet.

lol yeah it has. you are probably looking at the wrong website. Look at the one I provided for you and scroll down to TD10 and you will see the 00Z run. Im using Netscape browser which is probably why I can see it before yours. Just wait a while and it will be there. Im looking at it right now.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

No, gkrangers is right. Look at the top and look at date and time the GFDL came out. It says 16/2325z: That means August 16 at 1925z or 3:25pm EDT. That's the 18z run.

[deltadog03]

well, the bam models have fared well with irene...so, why not now??

[gkrangers]

lol yeah it has. you are probably looking at the wrong website. Look at the one I provided for you and scroll down to TD10 and you will see the 00Z run. Im using Netscape browser which is probably why I can see it before yours. Just wait a while and it will be there. Im looking at it right now.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Its the 18z GFDL. Plot the points from this text, with the 2325z plot of the GFDL. Its the 18z GFDL. Ok?



768
WHXX04 KWBC 162325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.1 53.4 295./ 9.9
6 16.5 54.4 289./10.9
12 16.8 55.3 290./ 9.1
18 17.3 56.7 289./14.0
24 18.1 57.7 307./12.5
30 18.9 59.0 302./14.2
36 19.7 60.2 304./13.6
42 20.6 61.6 304./16.6
48 21.6 62.5 318./13.0
54 22.5 63.7 307./14.3
60 23.2 64.5 312./10.4
66 24.1 65.6 308./13.2
72 24.7 66.7 299./11.5
78 25.2 67.8 294./11.1
84 25.8 68.6 307./10.0
90 26.4 69.6 297./10.4
96 26.7 70.6 291./ 9.0
102 27.0 71.7 281./10.9
108 27.6 72.7 302./10.8
114 28.1 73.7 300./10.2
120 29.0 74.3 322./ 9.9
126 29.8 74.8 330./ 9.2

[clfenwi]

SSD bumps up their intensity estimate (from 1.0):

16/2345 UTC 16.4N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

Comments in the evening TWD

A 1010 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N53W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF A BURST OF TSTMS. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT OF SWLY SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok, why are the models incorrect? Not so much incorrect, rather like if all you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. They are useful tools, but when a system is vascillating like this one is and is relatively weak the models cannot plot a track will verify

1. The center reforms often screws up the initialization
2. The motion tends to change faster than the model runs since a weak shallow system is steered by winds at the surface.
3. The algorithms are based on known properties of cyclones, which this is duboius.

Irene did the same thing, models said N, she went W.

[WeatherEmperor]

lol yeah it has. you are probably looking at the wrong website. Look at the one I provided for you and scroll down to TD10 and you will see the 00Z run. Im using Netscape browser which is probably why I can see it before yours. Just wait a while and it will be there. Im looking at it right now.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Its the 18z GFDL. Plot the points from this text, with the 2325z plot of the GFDL. Its the 18z GFDL. Ok?



768
WHXX04 KWBC 162325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.1 53.4 295./ 9.9
6 16.5 54.4 289./10.9
12 16.8 55.3 290./ 9.1
18 17.3 56.7 289./14.0
24 18.1 57.7 307./12.5
30 18.9 59.0 302./14.2
36 19.7 60.2 304./13.6
42 20.6 61.6 304./16.6
48 21.6 62.5 318./13.0
54 22.5 63.7 307./14.3
60 23.2 64.5 312./10.4
66 24.1 65.6 308./13.2
72 24.7 66.7 299./11.5
78 25.2 67.8 294./11.1
84 25.8 68.6 307./10.0
90 26.4 69.6 297./10.4
96 26.7 70.6 291./ 9.0
102 27.0 71.7 281./10.9
108 27.6 72.7 302./10.8
114 28.1 73.7 300./10.2
120 29.0 74.3 322./ 9.9
126 29.8 74.8 330./ 9.2

well what can I say when Im wrong Im wrong. Thanks for settin me straight.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

894
WHXX01 KWBC 162348
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 0000 050817 1200 050818 0000 050818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 54.0W 17.1N 55.7W 18.0N 57.7W 18.9N 59.8W
BAMM 16.3N 54.0W 16.9N 55.9W 17.8N 58.1W 18.8N 60.5W
A98E 16.3N 54.0W 16.7N 56.0W 17.7N 58.0W 19.2N 60.1W
LBAR 16.3N 54.0W 17.1N 56.0W 18.3N 58.2W 19.7N 60.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 0000 050820 0000 050821 0000 050822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 61.9W 20.7N 65.6W 21.0N 69.3W 21.1N 72.9W
BAMM 19.7N 62.8W 21.2N 66.9W 21.8N 70.6W 22.3N 73.7W
A98E 20.7N 62.5W 23.4N 67.7W 25.3N 72.7W 26.3N 76.1W
LBAR 21.2N 62.6W 23.5N 66.3W 24.4N 69.2W 25.8N 71.4W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 51.9W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NorthGaWeather]

The longer-term forecast discussion from the HPC seems to suggest a front will make it all the way down into Georgia by later in the period (5-7 days out). Their maps also show a low hanging around a few hundred miles to the E of FL, and I'm guessing if 10 gets that far north, it will just be swept up and out to sea (that's probably why the GFDL shows a right hook late in the forecast period). Of course, it all depends how far north 10 is in 5 days. At this point, a hook to the N far enough off the coast of FL looks reasonable to me ... but it's not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination this far out.

-Mike

From HUN
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COASTAL
REGION. THE DGEX IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE UPPER TROF EVEN
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND APPEARS WAY TOO BULLISH IN DOING
SO.

BMX
WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG
UPPER VORTEX WILL TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND DIG A
SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO FORCE A SURFACE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...
BUT FRONTS HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN AUGUST
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

[deltadog03]

they continue to go west with there trends....hmmm...thats almost a FL straits or even a cuba threat

[deltadog03]

The longer-term forecast discussion from the HPC seems to suggest a front will make it all the way down into Georgia by later in the period (5-7 days out). Their maps also show a low hanging around a few hundred miles to the E of FL, and I'm guessing if 10 gets that far north, it will just be swept up and out to sea (that's probably why the GFDL shows a right hook late in the forecast period). Of course, it all depends how far north 10 is in 5 days. At this point, a hook to the N far enough off the coast of FL looks reasonable to me ... but it's not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination this far out.

-Mike

From HUN
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COASTAL
REGION. THE DGEX IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE UPPER TROF EVEN
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND APPEARS WAY TOO BULLISH IN DOING
SO.

BMX
WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG
UPPER VORTEX WILL TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND DIG A
SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO FORCE A SURFACE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...
BUT FRONTS HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN AUGUST
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

hahahahhaaahha, thanks daniel...seems we know what we are talking about...lol.