TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

? for the experts here - the global models appear to show a Palm Beach county landfall, and the strike probabilities show Palm Beach as the highest, yet I am hearing Broward county landfall. Can you help me out here? Please

[gkrangers]

Its going to be Broward or Palm....with an outside shot at northern Dade.

[mahicks]

The BAMS goes right over me, a brushing of the west coast after crossing seems likely now.

I think you'll probably be ok if your just going off of what the BAMS shows ya...It's designed for a "shallow" or "warm" system, which, from the looks of it....it's not/won't be.

Plus, most would probably say that the BAM/s/m/d model is not very good at this latitude.

Plus it's not a true dynamic model.

which one of the models would be the most accurate for this storm and why?sorry if that is a silly question just don't know much about the dynamics....also it looks like a lot of them forcast a dip to sw at some point is that possible? thanks for any comments.

ummm, as I throw some darts....lol...j/k

My first answer to the question would be anything but clipper and bams, bamm...
why, because the BAM models are out of their "comfort zone"...

And the clipper track is no where near verifying..

My second answer would be to generally go with the dynamic models...But by doing that, I look like an idiot at this time because the some of them are looking like an idiot to me currently.

All that being said, I've always had some faith in the CONU and NOGAP...

Ok, flame away all...

[tronbunny]

Read the portion of the discussion where Avila makes mention of the recent GFDL and its quite honestly doomsday scenario for S. Florida.

I'm surprised he mentioned it given its extreme solution, but did speak of it as unrealistic. Still he seems to be concerned about it.

IMHO Avila has always had a note of worst-case-scenario in hhis discussions..
so having him note the very bad GFDL track is not terribly out of charater.
Regardless.. the GFDL has been quite good -so far- this year and it is a bit alarming to see it come up with this!

I for one am NOT thrilled to see all the solutions re-curve this storm over the bulk of the FL peninsula!...
Double Whammy indeed!

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.1kmvis.html

The center is now visible on the NEXRAD radar now. It is another source along with the Miami radar. Although it is about 5/10 min behind Miami, it IMO it is a better quality even though the entire storm is not in view yet.

[johngaltfla]

We've taken a beating in this state since August 13, 2004. And it isn't stopping.

I really fear the GOM season in late September thru October.

Katrina is just a taste of storms curving back into the peninsula for double hits in the coming month, IMHO.

[CronkPSU]

Read the portion of the discussion where Avila makes mention of the recent GFDL and its quite honestly doomsday scenario for S. Florida.

I'm surprised he mentioned it given its extreme solution, but did speak of it as unrealistic. Still he seems to be concerned about it.

IMHO Avila has always had a note of worst-case-scenario in hhis discussions..
so having him note the very bad GFDL track is not terribly out of charater.
Regardless.. the GFDL has been quite good -so far- this year and it is a bit alarming to see it come up with this!

I for one am NOT thrilled to see all the solutions re-curve this storm over the bulk of the FL peninsula!...
Double Whammy indeed!

man, that would be a whole lot of rain for florida, rela bad flooding in areas already drenched

[timeflow]

That is something, isn't it? For Charley I was capturing each frame of the long-range out of Key West with BMP resolution as it crossed Cuba. Well I got super sleepy and decided to head to bed, but wanted to keep capturing frames, so I downloaded a small app that basically can be used to capture webcam images at set intervals. I set it to capture the hyperlink to the single long-range radar image at 5 minute intervals (or so) and stored them all as lower res GIF files overnight while sleeping. When I got up the storm was beginning to rapidly intensify. As time went by I took a sheet of printer paper and lined up an XTRAP to determine the direction, and it began to make the curve. After a short while I was telling my wife that this was going to be big news that nobody had made an issue of yet, and within a half-hour the local stations made the call, the rest is history. Seems like living it over again right now, even though it appears Katrina is too close to bomb out that much, it still looks like she's going to become quite nicely organized over the next 24 hours....

[Scorpion]

Yes, the fist is forming. I think 90 mph landfall at least.

[Patrick99]

Since I don't have to work tomorrow (hurricane warning), I may have to sit up a while and monitor. My favorite part of an approaching storm.

[Scorpion]

Skipping the half day at school tomorrow to monitor as well.

[Derek Ortt]

if you have school Scorpion, you need to be in attendance. You'll have many other hurricanes in your life. Act a little mature, put your future first, and go to school

[PurdueWx80]

if you have school Scorpion, you need to be in attendance. You'll have many other hurricanes in your life. Act a little mature, put your future first, and go to school

Good call Derek.

I used to think about skipping for such things as well (not that my parents would've allowed it in a million years) but I found that it was more exciting to not know what was going on for those hours that I was away from the TV or my computer. Leaves more time for it to change and surprise you.

[gkrangers]

if you have school Scorpion, you need to be in attendance. You'll have many other hurricanes in your life. Act a little mature, put your future first, and go to school

Half day...impending hurricane...missing it probably won't ruin his life. BUT, if it keeps him from posting for a few hours...then by all means, go to school!

[jkt21787]

if you have school Scorpion, you need to be in attendance. You'll have many other hurricanes in your life. Act a little mature, put your future first, and go to school

couldn't agree more.

Unfortunately I used to same thing when I was younger!

[Brent]

Half day...impending hurricane...missing it probably won't ruin his life. BUT, if it keeps him from posting for a few hours...then by all means, go to school!

[artist]

Derek and Purdue - what do you see the chances of a Palm BEach landfall? TIA

[THead]

Really looking better on ir sat loop, combined with looking at radar loop, looks like broward and area is about to get hit with a decent strength band, as this thing intensifies.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[wxmann_91]

Oh great, the first day of school, the lull is over.

But I still tracked the hurricanes last year despite having school.

[johngaltfla]

FYI.

Local mets in Sarasota and Tampa tonight had no solid prediction on the final path through this area. They said to watch closely as the initial intensity at landfall and forward speed will determine what the severity of the storm will mean for us. Basically though if you live from Naple to Bradenton, you should pay equal attention as those in SE Florida.