TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

Just wondering - when is it "responsible" to forecast landfall? Does something magical happen between the current 5-day forecast and day 6 that makes a 6-day forecast irresponsible? I see nothing wrong with projecting landfall 6, 7, or 10 days out, as long as the degree of uncertainty in that exact landfall point is understood.

That said, Tampa-south better watch out Friday night! The one thing that could save south Florida is if Wilma does a "Michelle". That is, it could move more slowly than forecast initially and eventually turn more sharply, missing Florida to the south.

[Brent]

Look at the outflow toward the center of circulation...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

I wouldn't be surprised it recon finds Fred's wife in there...

Yeah... I'll be surprised if they DON'T. Looks much better than it did yesterday.

[fasterdisaster]

It looks like it's very close to a TS. The pressure should at least be lower.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Well if its a lot bigger. We would probably get lots of bad weather. My mom is already thinking and preparing to evacuate. Are we crazy? We just dont want to wait until the last minute? I know some say south but its possible it would hit Tampa more directly or even a tad north?

Matt

[hurricanefloyd5]

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

Just wondering - when is it "responsible" to forecast landfall? Does something magical happen between the current 5-day forecast and day 6 that makes a 6-day forecast irresponsible? I see nothing wrong with projecting landfall 6, 7, or 10 days out, as long as the degree of uncertainty in that exact landfall point is understood.

That said, Tampa-south better watch out Friday night! The one thing that could save south Florida is if Wilma does a "Michelle". That is, it could move more slowly than forecast initially and eventually turn more sharply, missing Florida to the south.

im not making a forecast but i think as far north as tampa and as far south as near key west(only mainland monron)

[cjrciadt]

current t numbers
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Will recon support that?

[x-y-no]

Well if its a lot bigger. We would probably get lots of bad weather. My mom is already thinking and preparing to evacuate. Are we crazy? We just dont want to wait until the last minute? I know some say south but its possible it would hit Tampa more directly or even a tad north?

Matt

It's not at all crazy to be going over the plan and doing some preparation at this point. I did as much last night - replenished my water and cash supplies, called my parents and suggested they do the same and tentatively scheduled putting up their shutters wednesday night, etc.

What's the worst that happens? The storm goes elsewhere?

[fasterdisaster]

current t numbers
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Will recon support that?

Hmmm. Interesting. The pressure I agree should be 1001-1002 mb and it looks like they will find a TS when they get in there. The 11 AM advisory will likely use the 1002 mb, but if they upgrade it I don't know.

[jdray]

Don't forget about the secret lab in Lakeland....

So no 24 hours skeetobite graphics in that case then?

[linkerweather]

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

Just wondering - when is it "responsible" to forecast landfall? Does something magical happen between the current 5-day forecast and day 6 that makes a 6-day forecast irresponsible? I see nothing wrong with projecting landfall 6, 7, or 10 days out, as long as the degree of uncertainty in that exact landfall point is understood.

That said, Tampa-south better watch out Friday night! The one thing that could save south Florida is if Wilma does a "Michelle". That is, it could move more slowly than forecast initially and eventually turn more sharply, missing Florida to the south.

As a meteorologist on TV, my forecast and what I say impacts many people. 6 or 7 days out telling people that it will hit or will not, is in fact irresponsible on my part. It is not a general forecasting irresponsibility. But, for the case of viewers potentially freaking out or relaxing too much (depending on the forecast) I will not make the specific call just yet. That is how I prefer to operate. The big problem is that that degree of uncertainty, although repeated often, is not understood among the general viewer.

[weatherwindow]

I think Most of the modeling this morning is a bit west...Nothing crazy but the Tampa West thing seems very unlikely this time of year...I remember this with Irene...Biased all the way to landfall...I say Tampa East...I said about a week ago we would either get our major down here ala Michelle like or a Mid-Atlantic floater then out...I also said nothing else would affect the US And TD24 still has a shot at missing Fl to the east...But as time goes on that thought is diminishing quickly..

.....i remember the west bias of the irene track...looking at the track evolution of the october storms landfalling the keys, the timing and strength of upstream troughing are critical. subtle variations of the above factors can have a dramatic impact on the ultimate track. in many cases, the tipping point comes as the systems approach the isle of youth and the south coast of western cuba(pinar del rios province). in the case of irene, the storm, moving north just to the west of the isle of youth, suddenly made an unforecasted 6 hour jog to the northeast, then resumed a basically north to northnortheast course. the result of that course correction brought irene over key west and thru southeast florida as a major flooding event. it is really beyond our forecast capabilities to predict such motions particularly at 120 hours. short term track variations such as this fall in the category of "noise". obviously, facing a storm on a classic october track, the keys are never out of the woods until the storm is north of 25degN...further, i believe the area of critical concern for the keys will again be the track evolution as it approachs western cuba and the isle of youth

[wxman57]

current t numbers
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Will recon support that?

Obs in the NW Caribbean do not support TS strength at all. In fact, I can't find any obs over 15 kts. I think the reason is that the surrounding pressure is so low down there. It's like a giant area of low pressure, so the pressure gradient is low around the depression.

[WindRunner]

Just reposting the 12Z models . . . Interesting to see how far around the BAM models have come all of a sudden.

[quandary]

current t numbers
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Will recon support that?

Obs in the NW Caribbean do not support TS strength at all. In fact, I can't find any obs over 15 kts. I think the reason is that the surrounding pressure is so low down there. It's like a giant area of low pressure, so the pressure gradient is low around the depression.

So its winds aren't really as strong as it looks...

But, the winds are still likely to catch up to the satellite appearance right? The pressure will continue to drop until what looks like a 40mph storm becomes one (more of a question here).

Also, still smells like strengthening.

[SkeetoBite]

Don't forget about the secret lab in Lakeland....

So no 24 hours skeetobite graphics in that case then?

Turns out we put our Super Space Age Samurai server and a back up secret lab in Michigan for just such an occurance. The site is fully automated and can be maintained from anywhere, even via a cell phone.

We'll be here... always.

[senorpepr]

Also, still smells like strengthening.

Sorry, that's my deodorant.

[quandary]

Well, I mean with GFDL bumping into a major consistently and even the SHIPS bringing it to about 90kts. The T-numbers just keep inching up and the satellite presentation is slowly improving. No reason why if its not a TS now it won't be in another 6-12 hours.

[quandary]

And after it becomes Wilma, there will only be Greek letters left! Hopefully those will be aged and weak.

[hicksta]

Muhahha texas is free!!!!

[wxman57]

Well, I mean with GFDL bumping into a major consistently and even the SHIPS bringing it to about 90kts. The T-numbers just keep inching up and the satellite presentation is slowly improving. No reason why if its not a TS now it won't be in another 6-12 hours.

I agree, NORMALLY T-numbers would support TS strenght now. But there just is NO pressure gradient across the Caribbean. How about a 5 millibar increase at a point 450 miles northwest of the depression center? That's what I'm seeing in the obs. 5 millibars over 450miles does not produce 35kt winds. It may take until tonight or Monday morning for that gradient to increase.