Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[TampaFl]

Boy Aquawind, that map sure is not good for the Tampa Bay area. Though the rain will be a blessing more than a curse.

Robert

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON
SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[spinfan4eva]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I am leaning towards a virtual repeat of 1995's Allison. I now think it will develop within the next 12-24 hours, and will briefly become a hurricane over the Loop Current. However, cooler water near shore will weaken it before a landfall in NW Florida - I put it between St. Marks and Steinhatchee with 60mph as the landfall intensity, but the cone of uncertainty is enormous.



Current - 18.6/85.2 - 30mph - 1006mb - Low
6 hrs - 19.3/85.3 - 30mph - 1006mb - Low
12 hrs - 20.1/85.6 - 35mph - 1005mb - Low
18 hrs - 21.0/85.9 - 35mph - 1005mb - TD 1
24 hrs - 21.8/86.0 - 35mph - 1005mb
36 hrs - 23.4/86.2 - 45mph - 1003mb - TS Alberto
48 hrs - 25.2/86.0 - 60mph - 999mb
60 hrs - 26.8/85.5 - 75mph - 988mb
72 hrs - 28.3/84.6 - 70mph - 991mb
96 hrs - 32.7/82.3 - 30mph - 1000mb - Inland
120 hrs - Absorbed by front

Water temps in the gulf are currently able to support a major hurricane. If water temps warm enough to support a cat 4 or higher hurricane throughout the gulf are considered cool, I would hate to see them when they are considered warm. Doesnt help if you wanna keep your AC unit running.

Graphic......
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's evening post says that he sees a possibly even bigger storm threat in the works beyond June 20th.

Let me guess...

Houston area...

Maybe it's time to wait for a "true" system......

No...

He does not give a specific place, he just says that another pulse of activity beyond the 20th could be worse than the current one.

No offense Extremeweatherguy...

But what "could be worse than the current one?"

What is he comparing it to?

ummm...may be the system that is intensifying in the NW Carrib. that could become Alberto within 48 hours. I mean that is what this thread is about after all.

He says that this is an "increasing worry" (who knows exactly what he means by that), and that he will post about it in more detail later.

[skysummit]

Jim Cantore just did a long segment about 90L. Basically, he showed the low level center where the NHC shows it...he called the Caymans center "mid level," he pointed out that high pressure was trying to form over the system...that a mid to upper level low off the west side of the Yucatan was enhancing outflow to the north...showed 2 possible scenario: getting picked up by trough and moving toward the NE or getting left behind and meandering toward the west. Good segment!

Very good disco by Cantori. At least he knows where the true LLC is!

[johngaltfla]

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

Interesting. That means the West Coast of Florida down to the Keys. I'm really dying to see those model runs now if I'm reading Avila correctly.

[Tampa_God]

Here is the 00z NOGAPS that is just rolling in now...

Here is the 36hr frame...

Looks too far west. I'm still sticking with my track.

[ericinmia]

I updated so i thought i would bump for people to see...

Here is the 00z NOGAPS that is just rolling in now...

Here is the 36hr frame...


Here is the 48hr frame...


Here is the 60hr frame...


Here is the 72hr frame...


HERE IS A MONSTER AT 84hr Frame....

[drezee]

JB's evening post says that he sees a possibly even bigger storm threat in the works beyond June 20th.

Let me guess...

Houston area...

Maybe it's time to wait for a "true" system......

No...

He does not give a specific place, he just says that another pulse of activity beyond the 20th could be worse than the current one.

No offense Extremeweatherguy...

But what "could be worse than the current one?"

What is he comparing it to?

ummm...may be the system that is intensifying in the NW Carrib. that could become Alberto within 48 hours. I mean that is what this thread is about after all.

He thinks the next pulse could end up being more significant than the current system(who knows what he means by that).

Why are you lying? He did not say that and I posted that above... in the interest of the truth I will place the quote below:

The next pulse of possible gulf trouble is after the trof split starting around the 20th and by that time, the plains will be frying further north and stronger than what it is now, That will be handled in the pattern overview later, this is to cover what I think is an increasing worry.

[Evil Jeremy]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

Can they issue a watch or warning without an actual storm in affect?

[rockyman]

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

Interesting. That means the West Coast of Florida down to the Keys. I'm really dying to see those model runs now if I'm reading Avila correctly.

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico is just "next in line" after the NW Caribbean...this does not mean anything about where the system will landfall...Avila is not hinting about a threat to Florida...yet

[Bgator]

[quote= NHC]A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

Can they issue a watch or warning without an actual storm in affect?[/quote]
Yes they can, this will WARN the residents of cuba...They think a TS may form so they must WARN them...hehe...

[Brent]

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

Here we go...

[drezee]

WHXX01 KWBC 100211
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060610 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060610 0000 060610 1200 060611 0000 060611 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 84.8W 20.2N 85.2W 22.4N 85.8W 24.4N 85.9W
BAMM 18.5N 84.8W 20.1N 85.5W 21.8N 86.4W 23.6N 87.2W
A98E 18.5N 84.8W 19.2N 84.4W 20.6N 84.3W 21.9N 84.3W
LBAR 18.5N 84.8W 19.6N 85.1W 21.5N 85.8W 23.6N 86.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060612 0000 060613 0000 060614 0000 060615 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 85.3W 29.0N 82.1W 32.1N 76.7W 38.9N 65.7W
BAMM 25.1N 87.5W 26.1N 86.7W 25.9N 83.9W 27.2N 78.1W
A98E 23.5N 84.3W 26.2N 83.4W 29.5N 80.3W 34.9N 71.8W
LBAR 25.6N 85.7W 28.2N 82.2W 31.9N 75.4W 39.8N 62.4W
SHIP 43KTS 47KTS 48KTS 46KTS
DSHP 43KTS 47KTS 48KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 85.4W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Evil Jeremy]

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

Here we go...

i guess i'll be staying up all night

amen!

[CHRISTY]

[HURAKAN]

I will go to sleep and wake up early!!!

[Tampa_God]

I updated so i thought i would bump for people to see...

Here is the 00z NOGAPS that is just rolling in now...

Here is the 36hr frame...


Here is the 48hr frame...


Here is the 60hr frame...


Here is the 72hr frame...


HERE IS A MONSTER AT 84hr Frame....

So what is that after it hits Florida? Just a circulation of rain or something reforming?

[drezee]

I don't get it. Everyone wants to jump on the JB bash Wagon...but someone blantantly lies about something he says multiple times and you guys ignore it like it is ok. Geez...

[rockyman]

Christy--Why? Maps without reasoning contribute little
Evil Jeremy-"Amen" what did that contribute?

We MUST have reasoning with posts...We're all going to suffer if people are allowed to keep posting these things...Pretty please?!?!?

I'm not picking on 2 people...we ALL as a group must pledge to stop posting things that contribute nothing to our overall understanding of what is going to happen with a particular system.

A lot of people spend a lot of time typing well-thought out responses which are buried within a few seconds under a barrage of pointless posts...