Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[clfenwi]

22/0600 UTC 13.7N 129.2W T6.5/6.5 DANIEL

TPPZ1 KGWC 220608 COR
A. HURRICANE DANIEL (FIVE-E)
B. 22/0531Z (50)
C. 13.7N/1
D. 129.0W/2
E. TWO/GOES11
F. 6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS/STT: D0.5/06HRS -22/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

01A/ PBO 34NM RND EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
LG RING YIELDS A CF OF 5.5. 1.0 ADDED FOR BF EQUALS
A DT OF 6.5. FT BASED ON DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS
6.0.
COR FOR LINE F. COR FOR TREND. COR SENT 22/0615.

AODT: T6.1 (CLR EYE)

SCHAEFER

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know where the eye can get any more organized. It is perfect and round...The shape of the cyclone is very good, with a intense ring of convection with little to no banding. It has been proven that these storms don't develop super develop convection. But have stronger winds at a lower t then other systems.

[mtm4319]

Code: Select all

292
WHXX01 KMIA 220632
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  HURRICANE     DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060722  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060722  0600   060722  1800   060723  0600   060723  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.7N 129.2W   14.2N 131.5W   14.7N 134.0W   15.0N 136.5W
  BAMM    13.7N 129.2W   14.1N 131.3W   14.5N 133.6W   14.9N 135.8W
  LBAR    13.7N 129.2W   14.1N 131.6W   14.8N 134.2W   15.4N 137.1W
  SHIP       130KTS         120KTS         102KTS          82KTS
  DSHP       130KTS         120KTS         102KTS          82KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060724  0600   060725  0600   060726  0600   060727  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.1N 138.8W   14.7N 142.4W   14.9N 144.2W   16.6N 146.5W
  BAMM    15.1N 137.9W   15.5N 141.0W   16.6N 142.6W   18.5N 145.6W
  LBAR    16.0N 139.9W   16.7N 145.6W   16.7N 150.7W   13.7N 153.8W
  SHIP        67KTS          48KTS          40KTS          38KTS
  DSHP        67KTS          48KTS          40KTS          38KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR = 129.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
  LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 = 126.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =  13.1N LONM24 = 124.9W
  WNDCUR =  130KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =  125KT
  CENPRS =  933MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =  100NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 120NM
 
 $$

Still 130 knots, no cat 5. I see some slight erosion of the northwest quadrant (probably due to the lower SSTs in that area), so I'm thinking this has peaked and will start a slow decline from here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You don't find a 85h with that soild of a eye wall every day. This thing is very close if not a cat5. But let them go by there t numbers.

[clfenwi]

WTPZ45 KNHC 220832
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

DANIEL HAS REMAINED A REMARKABLE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FOR 36
HOURS...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70C OR COLDER
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EYEWALL RING...AND THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS
WARMED TO NEAR 19C. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES WERE 6.5...127 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 130 KT...WITH DANIEL FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/10 AS A RESULT OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AS
WELL AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE DANIEL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY AT 150W. BOTH
THE GFDL AND UKMET CONTINUE TO LIE ON EITHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...
WITH THE GFDL BEING A RIGHT OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE UKMET A
LEFT OUTLIER TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SINCE DANIEL IS CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MORE SLOWLY UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES WATERS BELOW 25C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36 HR AND
THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 96 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Thunder44]

0z and 6z GFS has the ridge over the North Pacific in suppressing the the storm further south towards Hawaii. 6z GFS has almost a direct it hit on the big island by next weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif

0z Ukmet also shows it heading towards the islands at 144hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

0z CMC weakens its as moves through the islands.

[bombarderoazul]

EPAC storms are problably a lot stronger, but we never find out their true intensity because of no Recon.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060722 1200 060723 0000 060723 1200 060724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 130.3W 14.6N 132.9W 15.2N 135.6W 15.6N 138.3W
BAMM 13.8N 130.3W 14.3N 132.7W 14.9N 135.2W 15.3N 137.7W
LBAR 13.8N 130.3W 14.2N 132.6W 14.8N 135.2W 15.5N 137.9W
SHIP 130KTS 118KTS 100KTS 82KTS
DSHP 130KTS 118KTS 100KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060724 1200 060725 1200 060726 1200 060727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 140.6W 15.0N 144.5W 14.6N 146.6W 15.0N 149.8W
BAMM 15.4N 139.7W 15.5N 142.5W 15.9N 144.3W 16.6N 147.9W
LBAR 16.1N 140.4W 17.1N 145.2W 18.1N 149.6W 17.3N 153.8W
SHIP 67KTS 50KTS 44KTS 42KTS
DSHP 67KTS 50KTS 44KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 130.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 128.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 125.9W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 933MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM


Models stayed at 130 kts.

[Thunder44]

I would want to see even colder cloud tops around the eye before I classify this storm as a Cat 5. Otherwise, with no recon I'll just go by satellite estimates made available.

[HURAKAN]

DANIEL'S PEAK REACHED:

HOURS AGO:


NOW:

[benny]

Isabel did not have that cold of cloud tops these kind of storms normally have warmer clouds. So yes this is a cat5. I remember tracking Isabel looked just like this with the red ring with the most intense convection over the southern part.

Isabel at peak intensity, 145 kt and 915 mb:
http://tinyurl.com/p3fnj

Daniel at peak intensity satellite picture wise:
http://tinyurl.com/qmers

You can see there is no comparison between the intensity of the convection of Isabel and the size of the 70C ring. In addition if you go back and look.. Isabel held that ring for a longer amount of time. Later on in Isabel's life... I would say that as a Cat 5, she has some resemblance to Daniel... but without the necessary satellite classifications, you can't be making a storm a Cat 5 without hard evidence.

[benny]

ODTs were over 7 with Isabel... cloud tops haven't gotten as cold in Daniel. Let's not go over the top yet. Beautiful yes. Isabel strength... not on the basis of satellite only.

Umm, what are you talking about? I don't know what ODTs are and the cloud tops in Daniel are in fact just as cold as Isabel's. I have images of Isabel's cloud tops and they are almost the same but Daniel had some more deep red convection around the eye at certain times. I say, it's time to go over the top because we have a CAT5 on our hands. Now, even if some of these tools we use show Daniel isn't a CAT5, I'm not sold at all. I can tell at this point this isn't a category 4. CAT4's never look this good (except Floyd).

Isabel did not have that cold of cloud tops these kind of storms normally have warmer clouds. So yes this is a cat5. I remember tracking Isabel looked just like this with the red ring with the most intense convection over the southern part.

Yep, I have the image too.

Maybe they will upgrade Daniel to a Cat-5 in the After Season Reports.

They better, if they don't soon of course.

I think they will upgrade it at 5am.

That's what I was thinking.

More by me soon.

Take a look at my previous post. The peak of Daniel wasn't as good as the peak in Isabel. Your memory is a little off here... that -70C ring was thick enough for satellite classifications to reach 7.0 in Isabel and never made it in Daniel. Almost the same is not the same. No tools show Daniel as a Cat 5... at least that I'm aware of. 'tis a pretty storm though.

[Thunder44]

Hurricane Daniel Discussion Number 23

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on July 22, 2006



Daniel remains an impressive hurricane. Current Dvorak intensity
estimates from all three agencies remain 127 kt. The current
subjective ADT intensity estimate from CIMSS is 132 kt. Therefore
...The initial intensity for this advisory will remain 130 kt.

Due to the presence of a strong mid-to-upper level ridge north
of the Hurricane...Daniel continues to move westward at 280/11. The
12z model guidance has made a significant shift westward and
faster. The GFDL model which has been struggling with the more
westward motion...continues to be the model that turns the
hurricane northwestward sooner as a trough digs to the northwest of
Daniel. However...it should be noted that the GFDL 120-hour
forecast position did shift westward about 300 N mi from the
earlier guidance. The GFS... NOGAPS... and UKMET slow the forward
speed to about 6 kt as Daniel moves into a developing weakness in
the ridge...but still keeps the hurricane on a west-northwestward
track. The official forecast follows this scenario and is faster
and shifted significantly left of the previous track...mainly after
48 hours. If this trend continues... additional westward
adjustments may be required.

Since the new forecast track is south of the previous track...
Daniel is expected to remain over warmer water. As such...the
weakening trend is forecast to be slower than previously expected.
The official intensity forecast is much higher than the SHIPS model
forecast...which uses the previous interpolated official forecast
track that was over cooler water.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1500z 13.9n 130.8w 130 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 14.2n 132.5w 120 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 14.6n 134.5w 110 kt
36hr VT 24/0000z 15.1n 136.4w 100 kt
48hr VT 24/1200z 15.6n 138.0w 90 kt
72hr VT 25/1200z 16.5n 140.2w 75 kt
96hr VT 26/1200z 17.5n 142.5w 60 kt
120hr VT 27/1200z 19.0n 145.5w 50 kt

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Down to 125 kts at 18:00z.

[Derek Ortt]

Most of the 12Z global models are taking this very near the big island on Friday, as a somewhat coherent TC.

This is the main USA threat, not that garbage in the BOC

[CrazyC83]

Could it hold its intensity all the way to Hawaii and be Iniki 2.0? (That is almost unheard of in non-El Nino years though)

[HURAKAN]

Could it hold its intensity all the way to Hawaii and be Iniki 2.0? (That is almost unheard of in non-El Nino years though)

Impossible. Waters too cold, too much dry air. ULL near Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 222033
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO DVORAK INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT AND IT APPEARS THAT
DANIEL HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED SLOW WEAKENING.

A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 28N139W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE HURRICANE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO DECELERATE. 18Z
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE
AGAIN THE GFDL SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS
AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND INDEED...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT OVERALL THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE OUTLIER IS THE UKMET...
WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96
AND 120 HOURS.

DANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER FOR A BIT LONGER
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH
48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK LATER
IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER 25C WATER FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A 1445 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 14.0N 131.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W 115 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART


Weakening commencing.

[JonathanBelles]

nice try dan, next time!!

[Grease Monkey]

Who's Dan?