Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[PTrackerLA]

It's certainly looking healthy and better than ever tonight. I won't be surprised at all to wake up to Chris in the morning.

[mobilebay]

It's certainly looking healthy and better than ever tonight. I won't be surprised at all to wake up to Chris in the morning.

With the way it looks and Stacey Stewart writing the forecast, I'd say this is a very good possibility.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe steward likes to say it as it is. While Franklin holds back...

So I guess Franklin kind of has the women's touch in the relationship?

Yeah...I think he holds back so much.

[Brent]

I believe steward likes to say it as it is. While Franklin holds back...

So I guess Franklin kind of has the women's touch in the relationship?

[mobilebay]

In case anyone missed it earlier here is a radar pic of TD3. Click animation and you can see it has a pretty strong circulation.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[clfenwi]

SAB estimated 30 knots, but placed the center at 16.9N, 60.0W. TAFB estimated 35 knots and placed the center at 16.7N, 58.8W

The models were intialized with the latter.

WHXX01 KWBC 010638
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM THREE (AL032006) ON 20060801 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 58.8W 16.6N 60.7W 16.7N 62.7W 16.8N 64.6W
BAMM 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.7W 17.7N 62.6W 18.3N 64.4W
A98E 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.4W 17.7N 62.3W 18.3N 64.4W
LBAR 16.5N 58.8W 17.0N 60.6W 17.8N 62.6W 18.4N 64.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 0600 060804 0600 060805 0600 060806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 66.5W 16.5N 69.9W 16.2N 73.3W 16.2N 77.3W
BAMM 18.5N 66.0W 18.8N 69.1W 19.2N 72.5W 19.9N 76.1W
A98E 18.6N 66.7W 20.1N 71.3W 21.3N 75.7W 22.3N 80.3W
LBAR 18.5N 66.6W 19.0N 70.9W 19.5N 75.4W 19.8N 79.1W
SHIP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 58.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The History of Chris!


Tropical storm Chris 2000
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1994 Hurricane Chris
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1988 tropical storm Chris...Looks like td3?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1982
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If so then Chris is looking very likely for 5am. In franklin said this would not strengthen at all?

[mobilebay]

SAB estimated 30 knots, but placed the center at 16.9N, 60.0W. TAFB estimated 35 knots and placed the center at 16.7N, 58.8W

The models were intialized with the latter.

WHXX01 KWBC 010638
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM THREE (AL032006) ON 20060801 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 58.8W 16.6N 60.7W 16.7N 62.7W 16.8N 64.6W
BAMM 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.7W 17.7N 62.6W 18.3N 64.4W
A98E 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.4W 17.7N 62.3W 18.3N 64.4W
LBAR 16.5N 58.8W 17.0N 60.6W 17.8N 62.6W 18.4N 64.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 0600 060804 0600 060805 0600 060806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 66.5W 16.5N 69.9W 16.2N 73.3W 16.2N 77.3W
BAMM 18.5N 66.0W 18.8N 69.1W 19.2N 72.5W 19.9N 76.1W
A98E 18.6N 66.7W 20.1N 71.3W 21.3N 75.7W 22.3N 80.3W
LBAR 18.5N 66.6W 19.0N 70.9W 19.5N 75.4W 19.8N 79.1W
SHIP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 52KTS 52KTS 49KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 58.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

In alot of cases when you see them put Tropical Storm on there, they usualy upgrade on the next advisory. NOT in all cases though. Good observation.

[curtadams]

In case anyone missed it earlier here is a radar pic of TD3. Click animation and you can see it has a pretty strong circulation.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Showing the old circulation is very much alive. If there's one under the bigger convection then there are two.

[mobilebay]

In case anyone missed it earlier here is a radar pic of TD3. Click animation and you can see it has a pretty strong circulation.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Showing the old circulation is very much alive. If there's one under the bigger convection then there are two.

I agree. Man I wish they had not canceled recon. We would have one out there now!

[Bailey1777]

If you plot these tracks are they North of the previous or South?

[Toadstool]

If you plot these tracks are they North of the previous or South?

Thankfully (for South Florida) it looks like it is tracking more south. The previous plots were going right to here.

[mobilebay]

If you plot these tracks are they North of the previous or South?

Looks pretty close to the same. The GFDL now takes this up to 50Knots before crashing it into Haiti and killing it(TD3).

[Bailey1777]

Can you see this thing dodging the land masses that would kill it or does it seem like it will have to track through at least some?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if this can stay south of Hati.

[Bailey1777]

I'm full of questions sorry. Is it just me or does the latest IR look like this is actually two entities that look like they are kind of seperating?

[MississippiHurricane]

a storm named after me .... if it goes into the gulf,there is going to be a BIG problem... the noaa weather radio station in Jackson gives info on buoy 42007 ( 22 miles SSE Gulfport) every hour in the regional temps... the past few days the water temp has been near 90!!!

[Toadstool]

Can you see this thing dodging the land masses that would kill it or does it seem like it will have to track through at least some?

I'm worried that it's going into the Gulf, but I can only hope the conditions are not right to let it form into anything major.

[Toadstool]

a storm named after me .... if it goes into the gulf,there is going to be a BIG problem... the noaa weather radio station in Jackson gives info on buoy 42007 ( 22 miles SSE Gulfport) every hour in the regional temps... the past few days the water temp has been near 90!!!

Well hopefully it won't be anything big. It's not named after you, since it's a boy-name (Beryl was the girl-name). I admit it sounds like Beryl should have been the guy-name, but at least you don't have to worry about it named after you., MissHurricane.