Hurricane Ioke thread

[senorpepr]

It's also amazing how people just disregard the JMA completely when they are, statistically, better than the JTWC.

OK, apparently I worded that wrong, but I never said I completely disregard JMA. I like to use both and compare for myself. Keep in mind, I am not a pro met and my little rant was unwarranted apparently. So, if I'm foolish for also using JTWC as well as JMA, then I'm sorry.

Sorry... I guess there was a little misunderstanding. My comments weren't directed toward anyone--just a general statement of my observation. There's nothing wrong with comparing to the JTWC for a second opinion. My point was there are too many people who don't even care about the JMA when, in fact, they have the better stats and the better rep.

[HurricaneBill]

many of the JTWC forecasters are not degreed mets though, unlike the JMA

JT also does tend to overstate the intensities of typhoons not that infrequently

That's odd. I figured a warning center would have mets on hand. I guess I assumed that since they used to do recon flights, they'd have mets.

I just noticed on JMA and JTWC best tracks that the intensities were usually in good agreement until around the time JTWC stopped recon flights.

[senorpepr]

Putting this with that picture of rita it looks no different. Can you tell me one thing different besides rita had recon?

There isn't a difference. The only thing I can think of is a tiny bit less impressive outer-rainbands. I doubt that means much though. Maybe the T numbers were different?

Actually... there's a pretty big difference--the ocean the storm is in.

If both an Atlantic and Pacific storm look the same on satellite, usually the Atlantic storm is stronger, thanks to a stronger pressure gradient.

[HurricaneBill]

Sorry... I guess there was a little misunderstanding. My comments weren't directed toward anyone--just a general statement of my observation. There's nothing wrong with comparing to the JTWC for a second opinion. My point was there are too many people who don't even care about the JMA when, in fact, they have the better stats and the better rep.

I think I also overreacted and took your previous response personally. So I also apologize for the misunderstanding.

[senorpepr]

many of the JTWC forecasters are not degreed mets though, unlike the JMA

JT also does tend to overstate the intensities of typhoons not that infrequently

That's odd. I figured a warning center would have mets on hand. I guess I assumed that since they used to do recon flights, they'd have mets.

I just noticed on JMA and JTWC best tracks that the intensities were usually in good agreement until around the time JTWC stopped recon flights.

JTWC is manned by military forecasters--many of which do NOT have degrees. Even during the recon days, it was the same way.

Even today on board the Air Force missions -- there is only ONE degreed meteorologist. (...and that person is the ONLY person who has extensive meteorology training.)

[curtadams]

CIMSS AODT has Ioke a little weaker than Rita, 6.9 vs. 7.2 - but just a little http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/a ... A-list.txt Does anybody have a link to the Dvorak system the CPHC is using?

edit: stronger than Dennis (6.0) and Emily (6.3). If you're trying to make the case that Ioke is Cat5, try a comparison to an Emily pic.

[bostonseminole]

So what are the chance of this making all the way acrross towards Asia, maybe Japan? I live in Tokyo so I am watching this one.

[JonathanBelles]

you live in JApan, not boston?

[senorpepr]

you live in JApan, not boston?

Well... he did say "I live in Tokyo"...

[senorpepr]

So what are the chance of this making all the way acrross towards Asia, maybe Japan? I live in Tokyo so I am watching this one.

It's still plenty early to tell, but at this point, it's always possible. I would keep an eye on it... there's still PLENTY of time.

[bostonseminole]

you live in JApan, not boston?

I moved in October of last year, I just had not changed my location, all fixed now

[Derek Ortt]

only one met on board an AF flight?

It's not like that on the NOAA recon flights where most people on board have met degreees, at least that was the case for the Rita flight I was on

[Cyclenall]

Actually... there's a pretty big difference--the ocean the storm is in.

If both an Atlantic and Pacific storm look the same on satellite, usually the Atlantic storm is stronger, thanks to a stronger pressure gradient.

I forgot about that one! I don't know how much of a difference it would make though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Rita had 150 knots...So she was a very strong cat5.

[Scorpion]

Outflow has improved tremendously. If it will ever be a Cat 5, its now.

[CrazyC83]

My estimate: 165 mph/923 mb

[Scorpion]

If the pressure is that high, I doubt it. Remember, pressure is lower in the Pacific. Probably 915/160 as of now.

[JonathanBelles]

whats the longitude?

[senorpepr]

only one met on board an AF flight?

It's not like that on the NOAA recon flights where most people on board have met degreees, at least that was the case for the Rita flight I was on

Yup... just a weather officer. The pilots aren't weather folks, and the dropsonde operator is actually the loadmaster, with little weather training.

All the meteorology on board falls into one hand.

[btangy]

Deep convection has become much more symmetrical and the eye has really cleared out and has a very circular appearance. The Adj T# on the ADT site have come down slightly. If it were up to me, I'd say 135knots, which is the current ADT estimate (Cat 4/5). Will know shortly I guess if CPHC agrees.