Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[ConvergenceZone]

a lot fo those sat estimates are 100 miles too far east and are not reliable

Derek, don't mean to put you on the spot here buddy, but do you think IF this develops that it's more likely to be a Mexico storm at this point?? I know your opinion can change in the future, but from what you are seeing NOW?
just curious.

Dusty

[HouTXmetro]

If you remove the climo "models" and the non-dynamic BAM models, then you see a track shift eastward:

What is your current thinking on the system and eventual track?

[Brent]

Well looking at the satellite I think it's Ernesto now.

[cpdaman]

11 am it will be a tropical storm who's with me

banding features developing on northern and western sides outflow improving slightly slowing down

now waiting for the next pulse of deep convection

[gatorcane]

looks like some westerly shear is impacting it now. Am I wrong?

[Derek Ortt]

CONU has shifted to the left of the previous forecast

[miamicanes177]

dont know if it was posted ...QuickScat this morning...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png

[KatDaddy]

Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........

[gatorcane]

Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........

reallly how confident are you?

[Trugunzn]

dont know if it was posted ...QuickScat this morning...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png

40-45kt winds

[Thunder44]

Ship Report Well NE of the center reported winds E at 29.9kts.

SHIP S 1200 14.60 -63.90 192 165 90 29.9 - 6.6 5.0 - - 29.85

[ConvergenceZone]

I think if it can increase to perhaps 50 mph before it hits the worst part of the shear, then it will survive, the weaker it is, obviously the more of a chance that it will completely fall apart. Shear has a funny way of diminishing sometimes even when it's not forecasted to and storms sometimes can surprise the heck out of ya how well they handle the shear.

[jasons2k]

Hey gang,

When you reply to a post with an image can you please delete the image link from the reply? We don't need to see the same image 4 and 5 times on one page. Thanks!

[Portastorm]

Outflow boundaries pushing outward on the NW and N side of TD 5. Shear will begin taking its toll on TD 5.......poof on the way.........

you hope ...

[curtadams]

That 12Z spaghetti plot has none of the globals on it. It means very little, unless all the globals evaporate the storm immediately and were excluded because they have no tracks. The 6Z GFDL (which has been consistently N on the storm) puts a Cat 1/2 hurricane into the central Gulf heading WNW after some struggle in the Caribbean.

[robbielyn]

Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys

if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.

If it makes there in one piece.

once the system made it back over the warm Florida straits it would take no time to regenerate. You can't rely on Cuba saving Florida...its a small island albeit with large mountains on the eastern side.

whoaa nellie, we are getting way ahead of ourselves, it has to survive the trip, it has to find a weakness to get that far north, it has to stay over water with minimal disruptian from cooba and we these UL lowes which seem to be the feature of the season and are always very hard to predict have to stay far enough away.

cooba? thats a first. Cuba.

[NONAME]

I dont see any outflow boundrys I see a strengthing System and a Strong tropical Depression or nice weak TS. As the weather channel said on the Tropical update this morning it looks Impressive.

[Acral]

At this point many things could happen, but I do not see a "poof" right now. Iam in the Ernesto @ 11 camp for now, after that, well the shear does appear to be there and seems to already be impacting the system.

I think if it survives, wxman57's graphic might come close to reality.

[gatorcane]

Based on this water vapor loop the frontal boundary that streches from Miss eastward into the Western Atlantic (the same one that is turning Debby) continue to push south.....any impact on TD #5 in a few days?

[wxman57]

I got some new 12Z model data plotted now - no more 6z models. I think we're pretty sure about the track over the next 3-4 days. But confidence is VERY LOW where it may strike on the Gulf coast. Anywhere from northern Mexico to the FL Panhandle is possible.