TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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jhamps10

#361 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:36 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:I have sideline passes for UH @ Rice....


Cool, I'll be at the PVAMU-Texas Southern game Saturday in addition to a HS game Fri night. Can't wait. But back on topic. :D


Ah, high school football, how's this for a blow out. 42-0! But anyway back on topic here, it looks like the convection is moving towards the LLC, if my eyes are right.
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HouTXmetro
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#362 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:37 am

Recurve??? I don't mean to gloat. But We in SE TX have to be relieved if true. My prayers will be with those affected.
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#363 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:37 am

Swimdude wrote:Ok... A question I really need answered... Let's say this makes a TX/LA border landfall. When, a.m. or p.m., and on what day next week, would we expect landfall? I know this isn't an exact science... But I'd appreciate a good guess... I'd like to be in Houston with my family helping to prepare if possible or necessary...

Thanks!


Defintely not before Wednesday Night and probably Late Thursday or Early Friday.
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PTPatrick
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#364 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:37 am

if that is the )z GFDL that 120 hour point sounds like the bootheel of LA area?
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#365 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:37 am

UH grad....
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#366 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:38 am

What did the last GFDL have???????????
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#367 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:38 am

GFDL must hate NOLA... 126 29.3 87.8 13./11.9
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#368 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:38 am

126 29.3 87.8 13./11.9

...puts the storm on a recurve profile south of Alabama.


Clfenwi: this GFDL model looks like Ivan II. Any graphics available yet?

Miamicanes: That's not New Orleans. That's Mobile to Pensacola.
Last edited by LAwxrgal on Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#369 Postby Furious George » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:39 am

Chat room please with some of these comments.

Anyway, new GFDL out and a significant shift east. N.O. near the projected path. Anyone have a plot w/ those coordinates above?
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#370 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:39 am

please post link
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#371 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:39 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:UH grad....


Aggie here


So is this the official NHC updated track? the plots above?
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#372 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:39 am

Well what is that strength at that time?
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#373 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:40 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
126 29.3 87.8 13./11.9

...puts the storm on a recurve profile south of Alabama.


Clfenwi: this GFDL model looks like Ivan II. Any graphics available yet?


http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

just updated... refresh as necessary to ensure you have the latest and greatest.
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#374 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:40 am

Where's the map?? Can it be posted??
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#375 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:40 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:What did the last GFDL have???????????
this was the 18Z http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr
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#376 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:41 am

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


NOLA/AL/MS you are on the clock.
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#377 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:41 am

Dismay.....I dont like the look of this.....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
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#378 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:41 am

Need the latest GFDL??
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#379 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:42 am

Wow...headed right at mobile bay/Gulf shores.

Well, I suspect with the 5 Am NHC will likely shift slightly North, possibly with a little more hint of NNW turn at the end...I BET they still wont have anything to indicitive of a NOLA hit.
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#380 Postby TSmith274 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:42 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Need the latest GFDL??

Yes please.
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