TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[tampastorm]

It's true look at the 5 day cone , the whole west coast of florida is in the 5 day cone. So I 100% agree think ahead yes, but no freaking out for a few days.

[JtSmarts]

I just have one thing to say and I will be redundant...

Follow the cone not the line...

Follow the cone not the line...

Repeat after me...

Excellent advice for all.

[Mac]

As far as I'm concerned, the forecast track should stop at the Yucatan Channel. Forecasting Ernie's path beyond that at this time is a waste of time.

Well there are 3 and 5 day tracks for a reason. Days 4 and 5 have huge errors (200 and 300 miles I think) and that is noted in the NHC forecast package. Unfortunately people only focus on the center of the cone of doom.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. People are going to freak out from N.O. to Mobile, while people in Houston and along the FL coast are going to say, "Whew, it's not going to be our problem."


That's downright dangerous. And, of course, the networks do a piss poor job of educating people otherwise.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC shifts East!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 17W_sm.gif

I don't like that. Katrina wasn't that bad at all here but if it goes more to the east it's not going to be pretty.

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

Slower this thing goes the further E it will land..

Some are saying now it could slow and then bend into the west coast of FL.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can not even imagine the media hype about to take place today!

[gatorcane]

Seems like at this point a "stronger ridge, and a less over exagerated trough", would more likely mean another Rita, as apposed to another Katrina. Certainly houston is still in the game, but it is looking better for them at least this morning. May I remind you that 5 days before they made landfall, Rita was pointed somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus I believe, and well, Katrina was supposed to BARELY get into the gulf I believe.

I worry that the track will keep shifting east as it has shifted quite a bit since 1-2 days ago....so Florida (panhandle) and maybe west coast need to watch this very closely. If it slows a trough would more than likely come down and swing it N and NE...

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2006



the last report from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
at about 09z indicated a central pressure of 997 mb and maximum 850
mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Microwave data from the windsat
satellite and morning visible imagery shows that Ernesto remains
partly sheared with the low-level center near the western edge of
the very strong convective mass. The initial intensity is set at
45 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB...and this could be a little conservative.
The initial motion is 285/12...a little slower than before. Other
than that...the synoptic pattern...forecast reasoning...and
forecast track for the first 72 hr are essentially unchanged since
the previous package. During this time...Ernesto should move
west-northwestward near Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and western
Cuba. The forecast track is more problematic after 72 hr. The
large-scale models agree that the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico will weaken as a shortwave trough digs southeastward through
the Mississippi Valley. However...there are differences in how
much weakening will occur. The ECMWF and NOGAPS call for Ernesto
to recurve over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...while the UKMET shows
enough ridge to keep Ernesto moving west-northwestward. The GFS
and Canadian models are in between...calling for slow motion over
the central Gulf. Complicating matters further is a lack of
run-to-run consistency. Given the uncertainty...the forecast track
after 72 hr calls for a slower forward speed...with a more
northward motion than in the previous package. Overall..the new
forecast track is in best agreement with the FSU superensemble.
The large-scale models continue to forecast the development of a
large upper-level anticyclone along the forecast track...although
so far they have been too fast in doing so. If the models are
correct...the current 15-20 kt of westerly shear should diminish
during the next 12-24 hr and allow Ernesto to strengthen. The
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36
hr...and steady strengthening thereafter. The intensity forecast
calls for Ernesto to reach 100 kt intensity in 120 hr...in good
agreement with the SHIPS and GFDL models...and the storm could get
stronger than that. It should be noted that the intensity
guidance...for as of yet undetermined reasons...calls for little
intensification after 96 hr even though there are no obvious
inhibiting factors.

In summary...Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane
as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/1500z 15.1n 71.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 15.8n 73.0w 50 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 17.0n 75.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 18.4n 78.1w 60 kt...over Jamaica
48hr VT 28/1200z 19.9n 80.5w 70 kt...over water
72hr VT 29/1200z 22.5n 84.0w 80 kt...over western Cuba
96hr VT 30/1200z 24.5n 87.0w 90 kt...over water
120hr VT 31/1200z 27.0n 88.5w 100 kt

[conestogo_flood]

IS THAT PATH TAKING IT TO NEW ORLEANS????

[Air Force Met]

AFM, please tell me you really don't believe that, ........... so being in the dead center of the 5 day cone means we're completely safe?

No...but to roll your eyes and totally disregard what he said is rude...especially when you didn't back it up with anything...and when he was right.

Nobody is safe...but taken as a WHOLE....it was a true statement.

If you think I am wrong...prove me wrong. There are noted exceptions where the 5 day point was on track...but that is les than 20% of the time. Landfall within 50nm is even MORE rare. IN those cases..they were well behaved...WELL DEVELOPED storms in well established steering flows...not a challenge.

This ain't that. Of course a 5 day track can verify...but it usually doesn't and the models are usually wrong that far out. That's a fact.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Seems like at this point a "stronger ridge, and a less over exagerated trough", would more likely mean another Rita, as apposed to another Katrina. Certainly houston is still in the game, but it is looking better for them at least this morning. May I remind you that 5 days before they made landfall, Rita was pointed somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus I believe, and well, Katrina was supposed to BARELY get into the gulf I believe.

I worry that the track will keep shifting east as it has shifted quite a bit since 1-2 days ago....so Florida (panhandle) and maybe west coast need to watch this very closely. If it slows a trough would more than likely come down and swing it N and NE...

They have made a 300 mile shift in 2 days..100 more and the whole FL pen is in trouble..

[Opal storm]

Wow,almost a year after Katrina and N.O has a cat 3 track pointed right at them.

[gatorcane]

okay folks, another conservative track by NHC. FL west coast needs to watch out for this thing. New model runs are pushing it into FL.........

[rnbaida]

The intensity forecast
calls for Ernesto to reach 100 kt intensity in 120 hr...in good
agreement with the SHIPS and GFDL models...and the storm could get
stronger than that. It should be noted that the intensity
guidance...for as of yet undetermined reasons...calls for little
intensification after 96 hr even though there are no obvious
inhibiting factors.

In summary...Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane
as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

[gatorcane]

pay attention to this:

The ECMWF and NOGAPS call for Ernesto
to recurve over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...while the UKMET shows
enough ridge to keep Ernesto moving west-northwestward. The GFS
and Canadian models are in between...calling for slow motion over
the central Gulf. Complicating matters further is a lack of
run-to-run consistency. Given the uncertainty...the forecast track
after 72 hr calls for a slower forward speed...with a more
northward motion than in the previous package

[x-y-no]

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

Some are saying now it could slow and then bend into the west coast of FL.....

Yeah, obviously the panhandle can't be ruled out. I'd say the peninsula is as close to being ruled out as anything ever is (Ernesto would have to slow down significantly south of Cuba for the peninsula to come into play).

Right now my concern is highest for Louisiana - but yesterday I was still thinking more in terms of Texas (which is certainly still a possibilty too), so the trend has been eastward.

[Mac]

Notice the end of that statement...

"It should be noted that the intensity
guidance...for as of yet undetermined reasons...calls for little
intensification after 96 hr even though there are no obvious
inhibiting factors."

In other words, "We don't understand at this point WHY the models do not continue to strengthen Ernesto in the GoM as we do not see anything that will inhibit his continued development."

Not good.

[cinlfla]

okay folks, another conservative track by NHC. FL west coast needs to watch out for this thing. New model runs are pushing it into FL.........

Link Please

[gatorcane]

Wherever this goes on the Gulf coast, this is starting to look very very grim.


And I see Derek is now taking it to a Cat 4.

Some are saying now it could slow and then bend into the west coast of FL.....

Yeah, obviously the panhandle can't be ruled out. I'd say the peninsula is as close to being ruled out as anything ever is (Ernesto would have to slow down significantly south of Cuba for the peninsula to come into play).

Right now my concern is highest for Louisiana - but yesterday I was still thinking more in terms of Texas (which is certainly still a possibilty too), so the trend has been eastward.

that is my point. We have gone from Mexico now to LA and FL panhandle and now the NHC says it will slow down.

I have a bad feeling it is going to slow and bend into the West Coast of FL.

[jlauderdal]

Seems like at this point a "stronger ridge, and a less over exagerated trough", would more likely mean another Rita, as apposed to another Katrina. Certainly houston is still in the game, but it is looking better for them at least this morning. May I remind you that 5 days before they made landfall, Rita was pointed somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus I believe, and well, Katrina was supposed to BARELY get into the gulf I believe.

I worry that the track will keep shifting east as it has shifted quite a bit since 1-2 days ago....so Florida (panhandle) and maybe west coast need to watch this very closely. If it slows a trough would more than likely come down and swing it N and NE...

trend is your friend and what have we seen since yesterday, nuff said for now. long way to go on this thing. how many times have we seen these things stall as theys tart changing directions or wanting to change directions, 12-18 hours of stall with this track and its a whole new deal.

[LeeJet]

Is the center of circulation still naked, or under convection?