TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[caneman]

and what is 300 degrees please

NW?

285 WNW and 315 NW so somewhere in between.

yeah so basically it is moving more N of WNW...very interesting as it continues to gain lattitude.

No, it's not. 300* is WNW exactly.

The point is that it was moving 285 and is now moving 300. More Northerly

[cinlfla]

ok thanks guys

[Noles2006]

W: 270
WNW: 300
NW: 315
NNW: 330
N: 360

[Vortex]

LBAR would be very bad news. Slows the system to a crawl just west of Key west.

[Noles2006]

caneman, I was just saying it wasn't moving more N of WNW.

[clfenwi]

00Z SHIPS FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 105KTS.

Have to look more at D SHIPS due to the likelihood of land interaction with Cuba. It chops off about 20% of the intensity forecast by SHIPS.

And answering the question above, 300° is WNW... 305° is the lower bound of NW

[Scorpion]

Westward-ho the models go. I never believed that the peninsula was in the threat zone.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Forecasting Ernesto must have the pros pulling there hair out.

[Weatherfreak000]

300 Degrees is WNW. Not really "inbetween", so there is no significant lift in latitude.

[Vortex]

The 300 heading is there guestimate but the advisory plots from 5pm to 8pm are a solid 315 heading.

[caneman]

caneman, I was just saying it wasn't moving more N of WNW.

You're right I was just emphasizing the more Northerly movement. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[Wx_Warrior]

if he slows to a crawl he'll miss the front and could go the south texas route again....WOW

[gatorcane]

The 300 heading is there guestimate but the advisory plots from 5pm to 8pm are a solid 315 heading.

That is true because the center reformed.....if you look at the big picture it has moved NW since yesterday...

[Opal storm]

Westward-ho the models go. I never believed that the peninsula was in the threat zone.

I'm not on board with the whole peninsula landfall either,I don't even think landfall will be in Florida IMO.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Is it me or does Ernesto keep outrunning his convection and then slowing down?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Kinda seems like he has been doing this all day.

[cycloneye]

Please,dont replie with a long list of quotes,thanks.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Shouldn't there be an 8 PM advisory?

[Weatherfreak000]

The 300 heading is there guestimate but the advisory plots from 5pm to 8pm are a solid 315 heading.

Taking that into account i'm going to have to assume this is moving now more South then what the system was moving before.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, Florida is looking less and less likely as the time goes on. If it's going to hit Florida it better start the turn right now, because there will be nothing to turn it that way later. ..The dynamic models are the best to use here...

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS still has strong high over texas then...this will be interesting next week