TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[Scorpion]

This is not dead, in fact theres still a pretty good area of convection near the center. Unlike earlier today. In it appears to be about to move out over water over the next hour or two.

Hopefully... but im not holding my breath. It looked like it was going to move over water this afternoon too.

[cpdaman]

last thing is there any reason to suspect this thing could slow down to say 3-6 mph in the fl straits tomorrow morning

anyone know if there is any probabilities of this

[boca]

Matt is ok let it go it will join Chris in the archives of 2006.

[jaxfladude]

unfortunately the complacency here in South Florida may go up each time we go through these drills and nothing materializes.

Remember the FL Keys have been evacuated 12 times in the past 2 years even though Wilma was the only storm that ultimately provided some serious winds, although CAT 1.

Good point as gas lines and grocery store lines were huge today.
Will they be huge next time?

As I grew up we started to get REAL complacent down here until Andrew shook everyone one up big time.
The last couple of years did the same after a long lull.
The "it will turn away and won't come here" attitude is easy to come by as people get scare after scare and nothing happens.
It's just human nature, the "cry wolf" syndrome.

No real answer for it as people's attention spans are quite short.

You can't yell at them when they get complacent, only remind them of what has happened in the past.

Remember that was happened to many who lived through Hurricane Andrew in the overnight/morning hours of Aug. 24, 1992.
As small as he was he was the costliest hurricane for 13 years , five days and roughly two/ three hours...

[jpigott]

its been flirting with the northern cuban coast for most of the day; if he comes off within the next hour or 2, SFL could still see a strong TS/lower end CAT 1, if he waits till morning it may not even reach SFL as a minimal TS

[WxGuy1]

DO ULL's have any effect (besides sheer) on the steering of sytems

cause the one to the north west now is moving away and creating a bit of distance

ULLs affect the wind fields aloft by their very nature. As such, they help dictate the steering "currents".

I find it fascinating that when we expected WNW motion, Ernesto went NW. When we expected NW motion, Ernesto went WNW. Ernesto seems to have done everything that would be required to minimize the threat of a tropical cyclone in this part of the Atlantic basin this time of year.

Personally, I expect mid-range (though may be low-range or high-range) tropical storm on landfall in Florida.

My probabilities for Ernesto intensity at landfall:
TD: 20%
TS: 55%
Cat 1: 15%
* Weaken into a tropical wave: 10%

[Annular Cane]

Poor Ernesto. He tried to escape to Miami from Cuba, but Castro caught him and is apparently holding him hostage.

[Scorpion]

Poor Ernesto. He tried to escape to Miami from Cuba, but Castro caught him and is apparently holding him hostage.

True that. I like how it took a WNW turn right before it hit the water.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This has been a hard one to forecast. Alot of weak small systems are.

[boca]

It has to turn NW or NNW to do that and its moving WNW right now.

[jpigott]

at this stage we should still be cautious with writing this storm off for the foregoing reasons 1) the ULL that has been affecting Ernesto is moving away 2) the FL straights are notorious for strenghtening storms 3) it is easier for smaller storms to ramp up

With that said, it is also a lot easier for smaller storms to just as quickly disipate

[deltadog03]

this has been a horrificly hard forecast. I think** its still moving WNW...So damn hard to find.

[jaxfladude]

Poor Ernesto. He tried to escape to Miami from Cuba, but Castro caught him and is apparently holding him hostage.

Was going to make a jape at Castro, but I followed Storm2K's forum rules a little too closely, oh welll....

[Grease Monkey]

It has to turn NW or NNW to do that and its moving WNW right now.

I don't know if it was a slip of the tongue, but just now on the weather channel they mentioned ern was moving NNW, but the advisory they had up still showed WNW.

[Wx_Warrior]

And they are the HURRICANE AUTHORITY ON TELEVISION!

Sorry, the door was open and I walked thru.

[jpigott]

latest cuban radar image shows a rather intense band developing to the east of the center. I wonder if it will be able to pull it into the center

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[fci]

I'm glad I didn't board up for this one. I think tomorrow's forecast will by Variably cloudy with a 40% chance of showeres and breezy with east winds 15 to 20 mph. Just my humble opinion. I miss work and my kids miss school for that. Just venting.

I echo you 100%.
Your forecast is on the mark and I too did not board up.
Happily for me, my store will be open and, in fact; I could have a very good day since the kiddies will be out of school, bored and want to go to the mall!!

Your wind forecast may be too high!!!

[gatorcane]

I'm glad I didn't board up for this one. I think tomorrow's forecast will by Variably cloudy with a 40% chance of showeres and breezy with east winds 15 to 20 mph. Just my humble opinion. I miss work and my kids miss school for that. Just venting.

I echo you 100%.
Your forecast is on the mark and I too did not board up.
Happily for me, my store will be open and, in fact; I could have a very good day since the kiddies will be out of school, bored and want to go to the mall!!

Your wind forecast may be too high!!!

Okay I have to jump in, it is looking more and more like tomorrow will be pretty darn nice out there.

How about 20% chance of showers with E wind 10-15mph......good beach day maybe

[fci]

Kind of funny how the traffic has decreased on the site as Ernesto has taken his siesta in Cuba.

Kind of like a roped off murder scene with the cop saying,"All right everyone move on , there's nothing to see here"......

[Wx_Warrior]

That's sad to...Shows you some people aren't right in some of their thoughts. Want systems all for the wrong reasons, like televison does....Want death, floods, anything as long as you watch their channel...