TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Terry]

Although I really have a lot of faith in the NHC, personally, I am still going to watch BayNews9 locally in Tampa Bay since they are leaving a few options open at least so that viewers are less likely to be caught off guard if the track does shift more. Obviously they have to tow the NHC line a bit, but I have noticed that most of their forecasters tend to also add the other tidbits, like explaining why some of the outlier models may be seeing what they are seeing. That helps teach the interactions too for all the viewers.

Ditto. I want to hear the prof. met's ideas and Linker and company have been doing that.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like Ernesto is trying to get better organized. It looks like he is moving wnw.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane...be ready for some serious rain dude.. it's going to be a nasty evening.

up to 15 inches in localized spots - its going to be bad on the east side.

Mark my words - I think there is a good chance of tornado watches/warnings going up later today for metro South FL as we are on the dirty side...and these types of strong TSs are notorious for spawning tornadoes.

[tgenius]

I repeat, the COC is possibly moving WNW, but the convection/wind is well east and north of it...

[Toadstool]

Gatorcane...be ready for some serious rain dude.. it's going to be a nasty evening.

Definitely... us on the east side are going to be soaked! The winds are just starting to slightly pick up here in Ft. Lauderdale.

Gas lines were long last night, but I lucked out and was able to get into a short line just as a refueling truck pulled up. Everyone here really took this seriously this time, but only had a couple days vs. last year with Wilma we had about a week.

[Sanibel]

Ernesto is establishing an excellent dvorak by the minute.

Waiting for windspeeds to follow.

[shawn67]

And what if it makes it around the tip???

It won't. But if it did somehow, it would likely come in somewhere on the west coast as a hurricane.

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

[Colossus]

Although I really have a lot of faith in the NHC, personally, I am still going to watch BayNews9 locally in Tampa Bay since they are leaving a few options open at least so that viewers are less likely to be caught off guard if the track does shift more. Obviously they have to tow the NHC line a bit, but I have noticed that most of their forecasters tend to also add the other tidbits, like explaining why some of the outlier models may be seeing what they are seeing. That helps teach the interactions too for all the viewers.

Although I catch the other stations too to get their opinions, I find that many of them use a lot of absolutes and seem to casually dismiss other options entirely. That will make thier viewers be caught by suprise if they believe their Mets all the time. (i.e. Fox 13's met spoke with certainty on Thurs and Fri night that it would hit Texas or Louisiana and that we had nothing at all to worry about here in Florida! -I hope people didn't spend money or make big plans based on that! CNN is also notorious for giving no details at all and very absolute ideas; maybe due to their time restraints.)

And of course since you surf the channels and didn't stay on the FOX13 station, you missed the fact that their "absolute" changed with each weather update that they subsequently received and reported upon from that point forward...

[DESTRUCTION5]

It looks like Ernesto is trying to get better organized. It looks like he is moving wnw.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

NW..Acyually east of the NHC pts

[caneman]

He is wrapping up. Starting to get concerned. Could be one of those quick spin ups.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[deltadog03]

And what if it makes it around the tip???

It won't. But if it did somehow, it would likely come in somewhere on the west coast as a hurricane.

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

because there are certain people in florida who are biased to where they "want" it to go...I am looking at the miami long range radar and it still looks more west than anything.

[gatorcane]

He is wrapping up. Starting to get concerned. Could be one of those quick spin ups.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

water temps are 86-88 with little to no shear - could happen but running out of time....

[gatorcane]

And what if it makes it around the tip???

It won't. But if it did somehow, it would likely come in somewhere on the west coast as a hurricane.

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

because there are certain people in florida who are biased to where they "want" it to go...I am looking at the miami long range radar and it still looks more west than anything.

You can't go by the long-range loops. They are very misleading.

[Aquawind]

I am impressed with the visable loop.. It has expanded and banding is very evident.. Man I hope that pressure is not actually starting to fall and the 1008mb from the last VDM is spot on..

[TampaFl]

Although I really have a lot of faith in the NHC, personally, I am still going to watch BayNews9 locally in Tampa Bay since they are leaving a few options open at least so that viewers are less likely to be caught off guard if the track does shift more. Obviously they have to tow the NHC line a bit, but I have noticed that most of their forecasters tend to also add the other tidbits, like explaining why some of the outlier models may be seeing what they are seeing. That helps teach the interactions too for all the viewers.

Ditto. I want to hear the prof. met's ideas and Linker and company have been doing that.

Couild not have said it better myslf. Bay News 9 is very informative and to the point.

[deltadog03]

not always...you can ALWAYS see rotation on radar...grant it, it might not be at the surface totally.

[Vandora]

Knabb is on channel 10 right now, and said it was moving NW, and the convection is to the N and E.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

Missing the fact that the world is round...

[storms in NC]

And what if it makes it around the tip???

It won't. But if it did somehow, it would likely come in somewhere on the west coast as a hurricane.

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

because there are certain people in florida who are biased to where they "want" it to go...I am looking at the miami long range radar and it still looks more west than anything.

All I see is a NW movement

[caneman]

not always...you can ALWAYS see rotation on radar...grant it, it might not be at the surface totally.

I think Delta is right here. Clearly looks to be moving WNW still. NHC mentioned it could have just been a cneter re-location at 11:00 and uncertain on tract at the time. Looks WNW to me