TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[Evil Jeremy]

H. EXTRAP 1005 mb

MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 19:31:00 Z

here we go.

[gatorcane]

H. EXTRAP 1005 mb

MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 19:31:00 Z

here we go.

here we go what

[Brent]

5pm still brings it up to 55 kt by 2am tonight, watches/warnings unchanged in Florida.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006


...Rain bands of Ernesto continue over South Florida and the Keys...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
New Smyrna Beach southward on the Florida East Coast...including
Lake Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West
Coast...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry
Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida West
Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to Englewood...and a
tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Englewood to
Tarpon Springs.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the U.S. East Coast
north of New Smyrna Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
U.S. East Coast north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Cape Fear North
Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 105
miles...165 km...east of Key West Florida and about 105 miles...165
km...south of Miami Florida.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On
this track...the center will be nearing the Florida Keys and
extreme southern Florida tonight. However...rains and squalls with
tropical storm force winds are arriving well in advance of the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before the center moves
over land.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible near the track of
Ernesto over central and South Florida including the Keys through
Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6
inches are expected over eastern and central Cuba. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are
possible over the Bahamas.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Florida including the
Keys this evening and tonight.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...24.3 N...80.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[feederband]

I think this storm looks good for a 45 mph T.S...

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast/Advisory Number 21

2100 UTC Tue Aug 29 2006


a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
New Smyrna Beach southward on the Florida East Coast...including
Lake Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West
Coast...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry
Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida West
Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to Englewood...and a
tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Englewood to
Tarpon Springs.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the U.S. East Coast
north of New Smyrna Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
U.S. East Coast north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Cape Fear North
Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.

Tropical storm center located near 24.3n 80.2w at 29/2100z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 90ne 90se 0sw 40nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 100se 0sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 24.3n 80.2w at 29/2100z
at 29/1800z center was located near 23.9n 79.9w

forecast valid 30/0600z 25.6n 80.9w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 27.5n 81.1w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 31/0600z 29.9n 80.6w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 60sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 31/1800z 32.5n 79.7w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 60sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 37.0n 78.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 02/1800z 40.5n 78.0w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 03/1800z 43.0n 78.0w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24.3n 80.2w

next advisory at 30/0300z

$$
forecaster Pasch

[gatorcane]

I think they actually downgraded it based on the latest advisory unless I'm reading it wrong....40K gusts to 50K

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 21

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006


During the day...Ernesto became somewhat more organized-looking on
radar and satellite images. Recently...however...the presentation
has become a bit ragged-looking on the imagery. Flight-level winds
have not increased...and the fall in central pressure this
afternoon was roughly commensurate with the typical semi-diurnal
pressure change. In other words...Ernesto is not strengthening.
It is somewhat puzzling why the tropical cyclone has not
intensified today. One negative factor might be modest easterly
shear as suggested by water vapor images and a westward tilt of the
vortex with height as implied by center position estimates from
aircraft flying at 1500 and 7500 feet as well as WSR-88D radar.
There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Ernesto to gain
some strength before reaching Florida...but that window will soon
close. After Ernesto moves back over water and approaches the
southeast U.S. Coast...dynamical guidance suggests that the system
could approach hurricane strength. Therefore a Hurricane Watch has
been issued for portions of the Georgia coast...the South Carolina
coast...and a portion of the North Carolina coast.
Latest center fixes indicate a generally northwestward
motion...320/11...has continued. However...the heading is likely
to turn toward the north within the next 12 to 24 hours as Ernesto
rounds the western end of a deep-layer ridge. The official
forecast track is fairly similar to the previous one through 48
hours...and continues to be near the eastern side of the guidance
envelope. In a day or so...the tropical cyclone should accelerate
somewhat over the central Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough
approaching the southeastern United States. The flow between the
trough and the ridge to the southeast should move Ernesto back
inland over the southeastern U.S. In a couple of days. In the
latter part of the forecast period...some slowing of the forward
speed is expected as Ernesto or its extratropical remnant
encounters a blocking pattern near the northeastern United States

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/2100z 24.3n 80.2w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/0600z 25.6n 80.9w 55 kt...inland
24hr VT 30/1800z 27.5n 81.1w 50 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0600z 29.9n 80.6w 55 kt
48hr VT 31/1800z 32.5n 79.7w 60 kt
72hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 78.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/1800z 40.5n 78.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/1800z 43.0n 78.0w 25 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster Pasch

[rnbaida]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NHC sees what i'm seeing as far as the ragged look to it. If it's going to strengthen it better get after it!

[storms in NC]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006


...Rain bands of Ernesto continue over South Florida and the Keys...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
New Smyrna Beach southward on the Florida East Coast...including
Lake Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West
Coast...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry
Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida West
Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to Englewood...and a
tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Englewood to
Tarpon Springs.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the U.S. East Coast
north of New Smyrna Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
U.S. East Coast north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Cape Fear North
Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 105
miles...165 km...east of Key West Florida and about 105 miles...165
km...south of Miami Florida.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On
this track...the center will be nearing the Florida Keys and
extreme southern Florida tonight. However...rains and squalls with
tropical storm force winds are arriving well in advance of the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before the center moves
over land.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible near the track of
Ernesto over central and South Florida including the Keys through
Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6
inches are expected over eastern and central Cuba. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are
possible over the Bahamas.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Florida including the
Keys this evening and tonight.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...24.3 N...80.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Was 85 mile from center this morning

[gatorcane]

well they expected strengthening and for some reason it didn't happen folks. Ernesto really has a mind of his own.

[westmoon]

Sofar this year they have all had a mind of their own

[gtalum]

Was 85 mile from center this morning

Storms often expand as they weaken. Ernesto had a 105 mile TS windfield while he was over Cuba, then it tightened back to 85 miles when he came offshore. Now he's growing back to 105 miles.

I'd say Ernesto is toast. A minimal to middle TS rain event.

[Evil Jeremy]

some on the convection is disapearing! this thing was ripped by Hati, nearly survived Cuba, and i think Florida will demolish this thing, mountains or not.

[rnbaida]

I CANT WAIT UNTIL THEY WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...WE NEED TO FOCUS ON NEW POSSIBLE SYSTEMS IN THE EAST ATLANTIC....

[tampastorm]

QUESTION...............were the 46knts at the surface if not, what are the winds at the surface. And yes I know the advisory says 45 MPH

[tallywx]

some on the convection is disapearing! this thing was ripped by Hati, nearly survived Cuba, and i think Florida will demolish this thing, mountains or not.

As far as I know, the FL Peninsula has never "demolished" a storm before, at least not one with a heading that was to take it back over water.

Ernie has a nice spin to it. It's just that the low and mid-level centers could never get aligned. As he rounds the ridge and begins to accelerate off to the NE, I think this could strengthen appreciably, perhaps to hurricane strength like the NHC predicts. We've seen it so many times, how on the "recurve" portion of a track a storm will bomb in a matter of hours over the Gulf Stream. Warm waters + good outflow from trough influencing it + no shear since it's accelerating in the same direction as the flow are all contributors to this scenario.

Haiti, Cuba, and FL could just be a warmup to the main event.

[storms in NC]

Was 85 mile from center this morning

Storms often expand as they weaken. Ernesto had a 105 mile TS windfield while he was over Cuba, then it tightened back to 85 miles when he came offshore. Now he's growing back to 105 miles.

I'd say Ernesto is toast. A minimal to middle TS rain event.

Maybe for Fla but that is not what they are talking about up here. I am now under a Hurricane watch

[Trugunzn]

some on the convection is disapearing! this thing was ripped by Hati, nearly survived Cuba, and i think Florida will demolish this thing, mountains or not.

Convection still firing up