TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

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Toadstool
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#361 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:59 pm

Ernesto is going to be a case study I think!
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#362 Postby craptacular » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:01 am

Another band of consistent mid-to-upper 40kt flight level winds, which should still support a 45 mph intensity.
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#363 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:02 am

Ern doesn't live in the matrix. He has his own set of rules. ;)
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#364 Postby Toadstool » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:03 am

Grease Monkey wrote:Ern doesn't live in the matrix. He has his own set of rules. ;)


lol, hopefully the "N" storm isn't named Neo... :)
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#365 Postby rd5225 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:06 am

He was definately a dud. I dont think were even going to get an inch from "old Earnie"
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#366 Postby carolina blue » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:09 am

something is happening to have 38 kt sustained with higher gusts winds at the Bouy an hour ago

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1
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#367 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:12 am

Remember FL is flat with alot of water so alot of times storms don't weaken much over FL.
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#368 Postby stormtruth » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:13 am

Plus, he is still over the water.
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#369 Postby carolina blue » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:15 am

Its the swamp gas :ggreen: :cheesy:
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#370 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:17 am

stormtruth wrote:Plus, he is still over the water.


I wonder where the 2am EDT location will put Ernesto... Looking at KAMX / Miami radar, it looks like the main center of circulation has lumbered ashore finally southwest of Miami... That's just what my eyes are showing me...
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#371 Postby jinftl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:18 am

Looks like some of the highest (relatively speaking) winds of this event are taking place now. Here are the 1am wind observations (in mph) from the following stations (from NWS Miami site):

Pompano Beach SE16 Gust 30
Miami Int'l E21 Gust 32
West Kendall SE 24 Gust 30
Homestead E 21 Gust 29
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#372 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:19 am

I believe it, Its been rather gusty for the last 15-20 mins...
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#373 Postby stormtruth » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:22 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
stormtruth wrote:Plus, he is still over the water.


I wonder where the 2am EDT location will put Ernesto... Looking at KAMX / Miami radar, it looks like the main center of circulation has lumbered ashore finally southwest of Miami... That's just what my eyes are showing me...


It will be interesting to see. That sounds about right although I think the bottom third or quarter of the somewhat large circulation is still offshore.
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#374 Postby jinftl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:24 am

still some convection wrapping around....any one of those more intense areas probably contain tropical storm force gusts...and to my untrained eye, it seems there is a more circular shape to the convection around the center...before it was mainly to the north and east....just an observation

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#375 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:34 am

jinftl wrote:still some convection wrapping around....any one of those more intense areas probably contain tropical storm force gusts...and to my untrained eye, it seems there is a more circular shape to the convection around the center...before it was mainly to the north and east....just an observation

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


I wonder if Miami will see either that Southern Band/Circulation of the COC of the band to its East.. in either case.. the wind has deff picked up a lil bit, there was even a gust of 3-5 seconds a min or 2 ago.
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#376 Postby jinftl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:37 am

it almost appears like dade county is in the 'center' of the storm and the precip is rotating around it....it has been raining pretty good in east broward for a while...now more sporadic but overall in increase in sustained winds from before
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#377 Postby THead » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:42 am

jinftl wrote:it almost appears like dade county is in the 'center' of the storm and the precip is rotating around it....it has been raining pretty good in east broward for a while...now more sporadic but overall in increase in sustained winds from before


Yeah I was wondering what the conditions were in Ft. Laud area. Been watching the radar and it appeared you had some pretty decent squalls blow thru, and it looks like there's another band offshore lining up to take aim on Broward and south PBC.
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#378 Postby jinftl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:48 am

it is my eyes or can you almost see a smaller center with strong convection from Everglades City down to the Middle Keys and wrapping around to the southwest of Miami?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#379 Postby stormtruth » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:50 am

jinftl wrote:it is my eyes or can you almost see a smaller center with strong convection from Everglades City down to the Middle Keys and wrapping around to the southwest of Miami?


That's the area I've been watching as the center. Still partly offshore and partly in the swamp.
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#380 Postby jinftl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:52 am

if that is the center, it really hasn't moved very much tonight....
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