TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Zardoz]

Nicely displayed on this loop now:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6vs.html

[Normandy]

I know Cape Fear isn't far, but I see Ernesto making landfall very near the SC/NC border

[emeraldislencguy]

it is close to being a hurricane--I really think if they said huricane people would take it more seriously--I have a business here and so many of the persons from out of state have no idea there is a sorm heading our way--most are just saying is is still a drpression in Floida--cant understand why all the media attention about Florida but little on the national news excpet the weather channel--and Dr. Lyoos is saying it might weaken some--or the wind field may not make it to the ground--who knows

[lester]

Good luck to everyone who will be impacted by Ernie these next few days!

thanks...I'm going to Chesapeake, VA tonight

[artist]

Fox News has been keeping up with it - even had Max mayfield on awhile ago.

[txwatcher91]

The center looks much better now on the radar loop. It looks like it is trying to form an eyewall.
Radar loop

[southerngale]

it is close to being a hurricane--I really think if they said huricane people would take it more seriously--I have a business here and so many of the persons from out of state have no idea there is a sorm heading our way--most are just saying is is still a drpression in Floida--cant understand why all the media attention about Florida but little on the national news excpet the weather channel--and Dr. Lyoos is saying it might weaken some--or the wind field may not make it to the ground--who knows

They shouldn't call it a hurricane if it isn't though. And it's not exactly the NHC's fault if people are so unaware of what is going on that they still think it's a TD in Florida.

Btw, I haven't watched much TV today, but the few times I turned it on and put it on Fox News, I saw Ernesto coverage, and Max Mayfield was on there.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

39kt gust at the surface. Okay 38.9 sue me.

[wxman57]

Someone please tell me why they will not call this a hurricane when there is wind there that support it? I really don't undrestand.

They didn't find winds to support a hurricane. 73 kt wasn't enough.

That's interesting, since they upgraded Ernesto to a hurricane earlier based upon a 68 kt FL wind when the center was not as well-defined and the pressure was higher (and in a lower pressure environment).

I don't know what really went on at the NHC. We were speculating that egos were getting in the way of the upgrade (and that's just our speculation). We've all had a hard time predicting this storm. It was forecast to become a strong hurricane then it nearly dissipated. The NHC finally removed all mention of it becoming a hurricane when it was over Florida and it began to get better organized very shortly thereafter.

Seems like they were determined that this would not be upgraded unless there was overwhelming data to support the upgrade, which is quite contradictory to their normally very conservative procedures. The NHC controls the recon data, and they control what the storm is classified as.

With so much inconsistency in upgrading/downgrading TCs, perhaps an unbiased opinion is needed? A forecaster who predicts a TS to become a hurricane may be more inclined to give it the benefit of the doubt ("we presume such winds must exist somewhere, so we're upgrading it"). And when a TS is forecast to NOT become a hurricane, data that would normally support an upgrade are ignored.

Really, I have no idea what they're doing. They're very good forecasters, and I don't know what's going on behind the scenes. In the bigger picture, whether it's called a TS or a hurricane means little as far as its potential effects. But an upgrade to a hurricane would make the general public heed warnings better. That's why I can't understand not upgrading it.

[Mac]

it is close to being a hurricane--I really think if they said huricane people would take it more seriously--I have a business here and so many of the persons from out of state have no idea there is a sorm heading our way--most are just saying is is still a drpression in Floida--cant understand why all the media attention about Florida but little on the national news excpet the weather channel--and Dr. Lyoos is saying it might weaken some--or the wind field may not make it to the ground--who knows

They shouldn't call it a hurricane if it isn't though. And it's not exactly the NHC's fault if people are so unaware of what is going on that they still think it's a TD in Florida.

Btw, I haven't watched much TV today, but the few times I turned it on and put it on Fox News, I saw Ernesto coverage, and Max Mayfield was on there.

I hear you loud and clear.

At the risk of sounding completely insensitive, if people don't have enough common sense to be aware of potential dangers they are exposing themselves to, just give them a Darwin award already and look at the bright side--the thinning of the heard will undoubtedly improve the intelligence of America's gene pool.

I just find it very difficult any more to be empathetic toward people who are victims of their own poor judgment. I work in a Level I trauma center and I would venture to say that 90% of what comes through our doors is caused by poor judgment--drinking and driving, drugs, criminal activity, or just your garden variety idiocy. The other 10% of people is mostly comprised of unwitting bystanders that were standing too close to someone else who was exercising poor judgment.

It's the same with people who get in the way of hurricanes. If people are so clueless about the dangers they are exposing themselves to, then a strong argument could be made that they are getting what they deserve. Now, perhaps 10% of me feels bad--for the children of these fools, who don't have the ability to make their own decisions. And for the emergency personnel who will end up being subjected to risk while trying to save these people from themselves. But I just don't have it in me any longer to pity fools who are ultimately victims of themselves.

[Stormavoider]

^ Yup just east of there looks good....no way cape fear

The Cape Fear is not that far from the border.

It's 30 miles from the border. A border hit is probably worst case for Wilmington and the cape itself.

[storms in NC]

^ Yup just east of there looks good....no way cape fear

The Cape Fear is not that far from the border.

It's 30 miles from the border. A border hit is probably worst case for Wilmington and the cape itself.

It is to come over my house.

[Thunder44]

Beven is on duty tonight at TPC. So I'm sure if and when the data comes in that is a hurricane he'll waste no time in upgrading it.

[george_r_1961]

Its looking like its trying to form a tight core but it should be feeling the effects of land interaction very soon as landfall should occur by midnite. Quite possible IMO it will be a landfalling minimal cane but keep in mind there isnt a lot of difference between 70 mph winds and 74 mph winds.

[rnbaida]

Beven is on duty tonight at TPC. So I'm sure if and when the data comes in that is a hurricane he'll waste no time in upgrading it.

i doubt that it will become a hurricane before landfall. It only has about 2 hours until landfall.

[rnbaida]

they might just upgrade it to make people more worried....ha ha

[cinlfla]

I just wanted to take a moment to wish everyone in the Carolinas the best of luck with Ernesto and take care.



Cindy

[lester]

they might just upgrade it to make people more worried....ha ha

I wouldn't be suprised if that happened
-lester

[UpTheCreek]

it is close to being a hurricane--I really think if they said huricane people would take it more seriously--I have a business here and so many of the persons from out of state have no idea there is a sorm heading our way--most are just saying is is still a drpression in Floida--cant understand why all the media attention about Florida but little on the national news excpet the weather channel--and Dr. Lyoos is saying it might weaken some--or the wind field may not make it to the ground--who knows

They shouldn't call it a hurricane if it isn't though. And it's not exactly the NHC's fault if people are so unaware of what is going on that they still think it's a TD in Florida.

Btw, I haven't watched much TV today, but the few times I turned it on and put it on Fox News, I saw Ernesto coverage, and Max Mayfield was on there.

I hear you loud and clear.

At the risk of sounding completely insensitive, if people don't have enough common sense to be aware of potential dangers they are exposing themselves to, just give them a Darwin award already and look at the bright side--the thinning of the heard will undoubtedly improve the intelligence of America's gene pool.

I just find it very difficult any more to be empathetic toward people who are victims of their own poor judgment. I work in a Level I trauma center and I would venture to say that 90% of what comes through our doors is caused by poor judgment--drinking and driving, drugs, criminal activity, or just your garden variety idiocy. The other 10% of people is mostly comprised of unwitting bystanders that were standing too close to someone else who was exercising poor judgment.

It's the same with people who get in the way of hurricanes. If people are so clueless about the dangers they are exposing themselves to, then a strong argument could be made that they are getting what they deserve. Now, perhaps 10% of me feels bad--for the children of these fools, who don't have the ability to make their own decisions. And for the emergency personnel who will end up being subjected to risk while trying to save these people from themselves. But I just don't have it in me any longer to pity fools who are ultimately victims of themselves.

blah blah blah.....nice pat on the back, now stay on topic!

[AJC3]

As an update of a couple posts I had earlier, here's a high-res SST image overlaid with Ernesto's track from the time it left Florida up until the 5PM advisory:

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Ernie_SST.PNG