T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Tampa_God]

Here is a mm5fsu 120h model. Looking pretty big.

Pretty Big Indeed! Looks like another system off the African Coast can be our next system to watch tooo. Florence is not a storm to look forward to it looks like.

[Suncat]

I have a feeling that Florence may become a headache for the Carolinas. I'm basing this on the time of year, (September storms are more likely to hit the Outer Banks) and this is an 'F' named storm (the sixth storm of the season is also more likely to hit the Carolinas, (as in Fran and Floyd). In recent history, the worse hurricanes hit North Carolina following a major rain event. Ernesto dropped a lot of rain in the coastal plains region of the state and there have been two cold fronts in the last few days that are adding to the total rainfall east of I-95. Based on this very unscientific approach, it seems that we are primed for a major hurricane.

[gatorcane]

The MM5 apparently thinks it will be at a lower lattitude than the GFS and GFDL at the end of the forecast track...

[cycloneye]

GFS and CMC are also developing a fairly large system also. UKMET is smaller but, I imagine that it will join the ranks also.

You will be posting the 12z run of all the models right? As they come in I will be editing the title letting know the members which model is already posted.

[Stratosphere747]

The disco already mentioned that it is a very large circulation. You don't need models to tell you that.

Also it was very clear that there is still no dominant center yet. This could easily become the one SW or to the North.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS and CMC are also developing a fairly large system also. UKMET is smaller but, I imagine that it will join the ranks also.

You will be posting the 12z run of all the models right? As they come in I will be editing the title letting know the members which model is already posted.

I will try to... Later today I'll post the 144 hour graphics from the FSU site but, I'm at work so i'll likely be delayed.

[flhurricaneguy]

I have a feeling that Florence may become a headache for the Carolinas. I'm basing this on the time of year, (September storms are more likely to hit the Outer Banks) and this is an 'F' named storm (the sixth storm of the season is also more likely to hit the Carolinas, (as in Fran and Floyd). In recent history, the worse hurricanes hit North Carolina following a major rain event. Ernesto dropped a lot of rain in the coastal plains region of the state and there have been two cold fronts in the last few days that are adding to the total rainfall east of I-95. Based on this very unscientific approach, it seems that we are primed for a major hurricane.

thats funny but a little far fetched.

[DROliver]

Well if you use 20/50 as potential track crossing and use any storm passing within 100 nm of 20/50 during the month of September as the criteria you get this result for years 1870-Present:



So it this holds true then there is a very,very small chance of florence making her way to the U.S. coast.

Now if we choose 18/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1853-Present:



If we go to 22/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1880-Present:



Only 9 storms have made to the U.S. by making landfall or just brushing the coast. Only Gloria 1985 and Isabel 2003 have made it in close over the past 40 years.

Since 1964 is an analog year then a Gladys type track would be a track Florence could take. Even then the odds are very small Florence gets past 70w.

Steve

[jacindc]

I have a feeling that Florence may become a headache for the Carolinas. I'm basing this on the time of year, (September storms are more likely to hit the Outer Banks) and this is an 'F' named storm (the sixth storm of the season is also more likely to hit the Carolinas, (as in Fran and Floyd). In recent history, the worse hurricanes hit North Carolina following a major rain event. Ernesto dropped a lot of rain in the coastal plains region of the state and there have been two cold fronts in the last few days that are adding to the total rainfall east of I-95. Based on this very unscientific approach, it seems that we are primed for a major hurricane.

I read this, then was STUNNED to see that you live in North Carolina! Go figure!

[Meso]

Nevermind Gfs model out to 54 hours so far..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Steve, there would most likely be a difference in the graphics if you could distinguish between the first weeks in Sep vs. the last weeks. Late Sep. is way mroe likely to have recurving fronts than early Sep.

[terstorm1012]

I have a feeling that Florence may become a headache for the Carolinas. I'm basing this on the time of year, (September storms are more likely to hit the Outer Banks) and this is an 'F' named storm (the sixth storm of the season is also more likely to hit the Carolinas, (as in Fran and Floyd). In recent history, the worse hurricanes hit North Carolina following a major rain event. Ernesto dropped a lot of rain in the coastal plains region of the state and there have been two cold fronts in the last few days that are adding to the total rainfall east of I-95. Based on this very unscientific approach, it seems that we are primed for a major hurricane.

well watching the weather this morning, I did see that there will be a front along the east coast in the Monday time frame. So we will have to see if this Front goes off the coast and takes Florence with it or stalls out and opens up a weakness close to the coast. Your concern is now my concern, as we've had a lot of rain from Ernesto and flooding could happen.

So now there's the Bermuda/Azores High and the monday front timing to worry about. It's going to be a busy week.

[HURAKAN]

Channel 7 in Miami interrupted the "Family Feud" @ around 10:40 AM to announce that TD 6 had been upgraded to Florence. It's just plain stupid how some news stations want to exaggerate a tropical cyclones importance when it's known that Florence is not a threat to anyone. Except if you have transatlantic ships or you are a fish in the middle of the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

I have a feeling that Florence may become a headache for the Carolinas. I'm basing this on the time of year, (September storms are more likely to hit the Outer Banks) and this is an 'F' named storm (the sixth storm of the season is also more likely to hit the Carolinas, (as in Fran and Floyd). In recent history, the worse hurricanes hit North Carolina following a major rain event. Ernesto dropped a lot of rain in the coastal plains region of the state and there have been two cold fronts in the last few days that are adding to the total rainfall east of I-95. Based on this very unscientific approach, it seems that we are primed for a major hurricane.

well watching the weather this morning, I did see that there will be a front along the east coast in the Monday time frame. So we will have to see if this Front goes off the coast and takes Florence with it or stalls out and opens up a weakness close to the coast. Your concern is now my concern, as we've had a lot of rain from Ernesto and flooding could happen.

So now there's the Bermuda/Azores High and the monday front timing to worry about. It's going to be a busy week.

The Azores High will have nothing to do with the question of recurvature.

[NFLDART]

Channel 7 in Miami interrupted the "Family Feud" @ around 10:40 AM to announce that TD 6 had been upgraded to Florence. It's just plain stupid how some news stations want to exaggerate a tropical cyclones importance when it's known that Florence is not a threat to anyone. Except if you have transatlantic ships or you are a fish in the middle of the Atlantic.

WSVN has been notorious for that for years, Seems like the Rick Sanchez influence is still there

[mtm4319]

I see at least 13 storms on this map, and none of them hit the US:

[DROliver]

Well if you use 20/50 as potential track crossing and use any storm passing within 100 nm of 20/50 during the month of September as the criteria you get this result for years 1870-Present:



So it this holds true then there is a very,very small chance of florence making her way to the U.S. coast.

Now if we choose 18/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1853-Present:



If we go to 22/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1880-Present:




Since 1964 is an analog year maybe Florence will follow a Gladys type track:



Steve O.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on that FSU run and the synoptics, timing, position of the LLC of Florence, and movement of Florence, as well as the synoptic factors of a possible positive NAO and EPO and the timing and intensity of the ridging/troughing will make big differences. Here's a graphic that goes into details on my thoughts on the synoptics and why timing will be everything...



The timing of the two ridging complexes merging, as well as Florence's possible more southerly track, as well as the intensity and movement/speed of Florence and the positive EPO/NAO synoptics, as well as the timing and intensity and speed of rate of the trough progged to approach the Eastern Seaboard, will all make big differences in regards to track and possible threatened areas if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard.

Based on the more southerly (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) of Florence, as the first ULT (upper-level trough) creating shearing over Florence pulls out, mid-level steering currents and the west-northwest movement of the relocated LLC may support a slightly more southerly track than indicated by the guidance.

[Blown Away]

For SFL the 20/60 Hebert Box rule will tell the story. If the storm crosses 20N before 60W then SFL hit is highly unlikely! I don't see how Flo will come anywhere near SFL or SE at this point. Only way is the center keeps relocating SW and moves more W than NW. This is a classic fish, except maybe for Bermuda. Let's accept the realityand track it through the Atlantic...

[wxman57]

It appears clear on the latest visible imagery that the center is consolidating near 17.2N/48W, a good 40 miles west of the NHC position. Doesn't mean a whole lot as far as the forecast track, though.