Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

lOOKING BETTER.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN OCCLUDED 1001 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 76.5W AT
08/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 250NM E OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. A STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN AFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE AREA N OF 29N W
OF 76W BUT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 HAS BEEN
REPORTING 20-25 FT SEAS AT 16 SEC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE REGIONAL WW3 MODEL NOW SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE HEIGHTS BUT
CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE PERIODS WHICH WILL FURTHER ADD TO
THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS UPON SHOALING. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN
DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN
150NM N AND W OF THE CENTER. THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE MOVING THE LOW
TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL IMPACTS.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

The above is the 8 AM Special Feature discussion from TPC.

[Zadok]

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks interesting this morning. Seems like more convection is trying to form and wrap around the center.

[NDG]

Hmm, it looks much better this morning, the low pressure area seems it has detached itself from the cold front, it doesn't look extratropical like it did yesterday, surface temps around the center are in the to low 70s, much warmer than yesterday, and dewpoints are up at least in the mid 60s. Lets see what happens when it crosses the warmest part of the gulfstream later on. A little more convection during the day and There's such a small window of opportunity that I'm wondering if the NHC will even bother in upgrading it to a subtropical system if it does before the window closes up.

[CrazyC83]

That looks like a subtropical or tropical storm now except for the lack of continuous convection...

[WmE]

That looks like a subtropical or tropical storm now except for the lack of continuous convection...

Yeah I agree. This system looks really interesting.

[Chacor]

08/1145 UTC 30.3N 77.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[skysummit]

The best thing to do with this is pretend it's the real deal. What if this was a Cat 4 getting ready to slowly cross the gulf stream? What if this was the big one getting ready to slam into the east coast? Would you be ready?

[cycloneye]

The good news about this low is as it moves towards the Georgia/Florida states,it will aliviate the drought and fire situations there.

[tgenius]

With the amount of convection firing on the left side of the low, it looks like it may just bring some rain to Miami after all

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks as if parts of SE SC is going to get some very much needed rain in the area and surf. im heading out to surf later today.

[GeneratorPower]

This has oodles of possibility to be the "unnamed subtropical storm of May 2007". This is just the type of system they upgrade after the season is over.

[Noah]

WHen is the time frame they expect this to move into florida?

[cycloneye]

This has oodles of possibility to be the "unnamed subtropical storm of May 2007". This is just the type of system they upgrade after the season is over.

Agree on that.After reanalysis they may do it.

[seahawkjd]

The Weather Channel is now calling it a subtropical storm and saying there is the possibility that the Hurricane Center might name it.

[miamicanes177]

The NHC will typically not name an early system like this out of fear of causing mass panic. If the public hears about a tropical storm in May it will cause them to worry about how bad the rest of the season might be. They'll wait until after the season to upgrade it unless it is blatantly obvious and they are forced to name it.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 081330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

It's for tommorow morning at 12:00z or 8:00 AM EDT.If necessary.This assures that invest 90L will apear at NRL later today.

[Nimbus]

Is the track progged to continue west with a little southerly component or is the next trough going to pull it back out over the gulf stream before the center gets over land?

[wxman57]

Winds around the low have dropped considerably since yesterday - down to 25-35 kts now. Note all the cool, dry air surrounding the low center and flowing off the SE US Coast. There's not much tropical about this low. Winds along coastal counties of Georgia and SC won't be too strong, but the area may get a little rain.