Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

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tailgater
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#361 Postby tailgater » Sat May 12, 2007 8:25 am

While she may look a little better this morning I doubt she' ll be here long. Shear should be increasing with the Upper Low coming out of the GOM, on the bright side, it looks like Fla may be fixing to get some drought relief.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
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#362 Postby ronjon » Sat May 12, 2007 8:30 am

Looking better organized on VIS SAT. Probably tropical depression status based on quickscat, buoy winds, pressure, and increasing convective bursts. The LLC is developing convection bridging the east and west blobs now.

LINK


EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink. -senorpepr
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#363 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat May 12, 2007 8:34 am

It appears to be getting stronger. Maybe it will become a TC before hitting cooler waters.
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#364 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat May 12, 2007 8:41 am

FWIW I think were at Depression Status right now. No questions asked..Will they upgrade? Thats another story
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#365 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat May 12, 2007 8:50 am

It has really gained alot of organzation from the past 24hrs and yes all the data shows a possible depresson out in the atlantic. my two cents i think if the hunters go out i think they will find enough data for a upgrade, but i dont think that it will be upgraded for a long period of time.
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#366 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 8:54 am

I just plotted here the buoys with the wind direction and also 12z initial point. This system is now moving away from buoys 41012 and 41009 is passing very near buoy 41010, which explains the rise in pressures and decrease in winds. None of the bouys are under any of the convection:

Image
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#367 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 12, 2007 9:10 am

So are they flying into it?
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#368 Postby vbhoutex » Sat May 12, 2007 9:13 am

Looks to me like the COC is seperating from the convection that has formed. That never bodes well for a tropical system of any type.
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#369 Postby drezee » Sat May 12, 2007 9:17 am

41010 B 1320 28.95 -78.47 0 0 300 6.0 7.0 1.3 6 - - 1007.1
41009 B 1320 28.50 -80.17 173 254 300 7.0 8.0 1.3 6 - - 1012.7

5.6 mb pressure gradient over 93 miles

winds should head to over 25 kts as the center moves away from 41010...if it is indeed a TD or weak TS
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#370 Postby tailgater » Sat May 12, 2007 9:21 am

vbhoutex wrote:Looks to me like the COC is seperating from the convection that has formed. That never bodes well for a tropical system of any type.

In another 24 hrs. I doubt that we will even be able to find a center.
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#371 Postby NDG » Sat May 12, 2007 9:21 am

Looking at the buoy reports, 1km sat pics, & radar, at the ill defined center of low pressure, I have it located near 29N & 78.3W, a bit elongated, moving ENE around 5 mph.
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#372 Postby Thunder44 » Sat May 12, 2007 9:25 am

Andrea may entraining some of the FL/GA smoke or ash on the south side of circulation.
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#373 Postby Noah » Sat May 12, 2007 9:25 am

Hey, is southwest florida going to see some rain from what is coming in from the gulf? You guys think broken andrea will merge with this. IS this gulf low going to turn into something? Im sure you all are watching
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#374 Postby NDG » Sat May 12, 2007 9:28 am

Thunder44 wrote:Andrea may entraining some of the FL/GA smoke or ash on the south side of circulation.


She's being doing that for days now.
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#375 Postby wjs3 » Sat May 12, 2007 9:29 am

Thunder44 wrote:I just plotted here the buoys with the wind direction and also 12z initial point. This system is now moving away from buoys 41012 and 41009 is passing very near buoy 41010, which explains the rise in pressures and decrease in winds. None of the bouys are under any of the convection:

Image


Thanks. The image does a lot to explain the west winds at 41010, which I now think are outflow from the blob to the west of that buoy...

So many outflow boundaries (again) today. My guess is that they are doing a lot of the initiation of new convection, especially based on where some of the new convection is forming (right where outflow boundaries collide)

WJS3
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#376 Postby NDG » Sat May 12, 2007 9:38 am

Noah wrote:Hey, is southwest florida going to see some rain from what is coming in from the gulf? You guys think broken andrea will merge with this. IS this gulf low going to turn into something? Im sure you all are watching


The upper low coming out of the gulf is dying out, but its troughiness will kick out whatever comes out of Andrea's remnants, with a combination of a back door cold front coming down the east coast, central and southern FL, including SW FL, should see a decent chance of rain on Monday and maybe into Tuesday, and continuing chance of rain for SW FL with the easterly winds setting in for the rest of the week, hopefully, it will at least clear the smoky skies.
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#377 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 12, 2007 9:43 am

In the post analysis we will see that Andrea was a tropical depression yesterday (May 11) and today (May 12).
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#378 Postby NDG » Sat May 12, 2007 9:46 am

wjs3 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I just plotted here the buoys with the wind direction and also 12z initial point. This system is now moving away from buoys 41012 and 41009 is passing very near buoy 41010, which explains the rise in pressures and decrease in winds. None of the bouys are under any of the convection:

Image


Thanks. The image does a lot to explain the west winds at 41010, which I now think are outflow from the blob to the west of that buoy...

So many outflow boundaries (again) today. My guess is that they are doing a lot of the initiation of new convection, especially based on where some of the new convection is forming (right where outflow boundaries collide)

WJS3


Buoy 41010 has been reporting a westerly wind since around 8 am, is now NNW wind, it was not an outflow, the center of low pressure is now just to the NE of the buoy, when I plotted the low pressure center from looking at radar and high res satellite pics, it clearly showed the ill defined center moving just north of the buoy and east of its longitude.
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#379 Postby NDG » Sat May 12, 2007 10:15 am

I guess they are still flying into the remnants of Andrea later on today at 18z, they have moved the flight plan under "Plan of the day"

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 11 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z MAY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ANDREA
C. 12/1600Z
D. 29.0N 79.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 32N AND 73W FOR 13/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.
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#380 Postby OuterBanker » Sat May 12, 2007 10:15 am

Who knows, she might just hang around long enough for the start of the hurricane season. But I just wish that she would stay out long enough to build some moisture and head into Fla and then into Ga. The dream scenerio.
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