Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[philnyc]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

oh and the quickscat should tell you that its not that far north since well it measure either surface motion or low cloud motion.. and not only that... whatever mid level was possibly around was not well defined enough for the microwave images to pick up on it.. if they would at all..hang on need to research the level that the microwave images penetrate to? ..

Quikscat shows low level only. It uses sea surface spray, waves, and wavelets to calculate surface winds.

[Ivanhater]

wow...

[MusicCityMan]

Looks pretty good.. esp with the red blob of convection in it.. Perhaps #1 or Chantal is in the making here..

[Aric Dunn]

i think its still just staying far enough away.. (at the moment) to allow some moddest development.. down the road i belive that the moisture that is to its east will eventually catch up

Look at this GFS GLOBAL forecast for 700mb RH at 12Z on the 4th:



Seems like it just keeps riding along that thin line between plenty of moisture and lower amounts. This is important to watch because the shear is not a factor for the next couple of days and the SSTs are fine.

P.S. The star indicates 10N 40W[/quote]

i agree hard to tell the lat and lon on that..[/quote]



Yeah, but I like their maps (from NOAA ARL). They help you to visualize what's going on. But they don't put coordinates on, other than marking the centerpoint you designate with a star. If I post them again, I'll be sure to note that or annotate the map (yeesh! don't really want to annotate, not at the speed you guys are going!)

And as someone said here earlier today (one of the moderators), people have to stop looking at the water vapor loop as a guide for dry air. I admit I always look at it, but it's really only valid for upper levels, and often misses middle level, and especially low level water vapor. You have to look at 700mb for a good proxy, and 500mb for really developed storms.[/quote]

thats ok i did not even see the star i will know for the future

[vacanechaser]

Bertha in '96 started off in the same place and about the same time of year.

yep... was named on july 4, 1996..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

Here is the long range from the NWS Puerto Rico showing an increase in rain for the weekend but it probably is still considering this thing to be a wave when it approaches.

I will watch this to see if they up the winds and rain chances...

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Southeast wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Independence Day: Isolated showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. East southeast wind between 6 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph becoming south southeast. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. East southeast wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East southeast wind between 9 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then scattered showers after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Scattered showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Cyclone1]

Looks pretty good.. esp with the red blob of convection in it.. Perhaps #1 or Chantal is in the making here..

It would be TD#3

[MusicCityMan]

Andrea and Barry were never named TD's.. they were TS' then downgraded to Td's.. so how do u figure it would be TD 3..

[Aric Dunn]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

Hate to break it to you, but that's not from model inits. Yes, the circuclation is initialized there in the models, but it comes from the NHC fix in the ATCF file, used to keep track of the system operationally and a starting point for best track at the end of the season.
And, just FYI, the NHC does not issue anything at 8:05 . . . that comes out of TAFB, the Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, which is a smaller group that analyzes the tropics with less authority than the NHC. Even though the TWD goes out with the TPC header on it, the forecasters are not associated with the TPC/NHC operations . . . and base their info on the previous (18z/21z) fixes and data. Often, because TWDs are put out early, the data in them can be incorrect compared to an 8pm intermediate advisory, though that was technically put out 5 minutes prior to the TWD. So, in general, anything from the TPC supercedes anything from TAFB, especially the TWD.

Also, the TWD is only accurate to the nearest degree and also, in this case, makes no mention of the center of circulation. Regardless, the data there was based from 18z and would be incorrect anyway.

but of course.. thanks for the attention to detail but where it came from is not important.. since they all work together(well they are in communications with each other). saying NHC since that is where most people know it from .. so thats what i used.
and again .. my point is made with data ... so draw your own conclusion. but i have seen it time and time again. you can say its at 10.5 or 10.2 and if you really want to get picky.. its both.. since well there is a center .. it also is a circle so it covers some area.. so lets say its from 10.2 to 10.5 n that we can drop the details . and remember that its actually not that important because the difference is not that great..

[windstorm99]

Animated Visible...

[Cyclone1]

Andrea and Barry were never named TD's.. they were TS' then downgraded to Td's.. so how do u figure it would be TD 3..

They both had winds of TD strength before being named, they were just non tropical. Trust me, it counts. It'll be TD 3 (if it forms). Maybe I'm not the best one to explain this.

[O Town]

[jrod]

It looks a lot better than 3 hours ago, i am really interested in what the NHC will say at 2300.

[cheezyWXguy]

Andrea and Barry were never named TD's.. they were TS' then downgraded to Td's.. so how do u figure it would be TD 3..

we talked about this earlier today, and im not exactly sure what the outcome was, but i believe it was that they already ascended past depression, but was counted as a depression anyway...also in barry's post-storm report, it was said that barry was briefly a TD right when it was classified

[Cyclone1]

I'm gonna say, TD3 at 11:00 adv. Or 5:00 adv.

[Coredesat]

Using the rainbow channel is a very bad idea, as it tends to exaggerate the depth of the convection. The AVN, CIMSS, and NRL channels are less misleading:

[miamicanes177]

The dry air and SAL is to the north...Wind shear is very favorable for significant development (5-10kts) and the water is plenty warm to support a hurricane......Why can't this thing get going? I don't know what is stopping this from going crazy.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm gonna say, TD3 at 11:00 adv. Or 5:00 adv.

tonight.. ?? or tomorrow day

[MusicCityMan]

Lets just wait and see what they end up calling it if it becomes a TD before becoming Chantal.. If its 1, 2, or 3..

I'm not going to argue.. only because well I'm not argumentative lol..

[Derek Ortt]

TAFB personnel ARE associated with the Hurricane Specialists. They ar ein the same building, and both report to Proenza. When it is busy, TAFB people assist the hurricane specialists